No Country for Old People

[thør]

The results of the Swedish experiment to date are in.

"Johan Giesecke, former state epidemiologist of Sweden, and a professor emeritus at the Karolinska Institute, tells me criticisms of Sweden’s current rates of infection and death are premature. “Wait one year before you start counting deaths in different countries,” he says. “The countries that are opening up now will get their deaths with time.”"

I suppose we'll see.....

 

[Sean]

Sweden has four times the mortality rate for Covid 19 compared to other Scandinavian countries.

 

[thør]

If Johan is correct, it would be foolish have your country governed by old people.

 

[stickygirl]

Sweden looks like it's doing fine and no UK tv programme should have the temerity to question them. In the UK, the govt acted late and blindly. 25k hospital beds were freed up by bumping elderly patients into care homes. There was no reliable covid test, so the care homes were landed with patients infected in hospital and of course it ran like wildfire. Plus the care homes use a lot of agency nurses, who were going from one site to another and took the infection with them. The UK's response has been and still is a fucking disgrace and it's all down to an incompetent leadership with a twat at the helm.

Don't come to the UK - we're a plague ship moored off Europe

 

[thør]

Anders Tegnell said, "“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done"

 

[Mal_Huevo]

Someone should bump fishmaels thread about Sweden so maybe he could tell us all how wrong the numbers are.

 

[Conager]

The results of the Swedish experiment to date are in.

"Johan Giesecke, former state epidemiologist of Sweden, and a professor emeritus at the Karolinska Institute, tells me criticisms of Sweden’s current rates of infection and death are premature. “Wait one year before you start counting deaths in different countries,” he says. “The countries that are opening up now will get their deaths with time.”"

I suppose we'll see.....

No epidemiologist is predicting eventual.infection rates less than 60%, regardless of what you do. Lockdowns and even (properly worn, actual, not pretend) masks, the fantasy that is "social distancing" were ever meant as anything but a delaying tactic.

The virus is going to do what all viruses do: look for hosts, and kill the of vulnerable. Over time, it will do what all viruses due which is run out of hosts and that are susceptible and run out of people it can kill.

Farr's Law is a law, not an idle musing. There is actual math involved and the only real variables are transmission rates and mortality rates. The pool of available hosts and victims cannot exceed the sum total of everyone on the planet. The higher the mortality gets, the more trouble the virus has spreading because it kills the people that it needs to spread it.

 

[Mal_Huevo]

No epidemiologist is predicting eventual.infection rates less than 60%, regardless of what you do. Lockdowns and even (properly worn, actual, not pretend) masks, the fantasy that is "social distancing" were ever meant as anything but a delaying tactic.

The virus is going to do what all viruses do: look for hosts, and kill the of vulnerable. Over time, it will do what all viruses due which is run out of hosts and that are susceptible and run out of people it can kill.

Farr's Law is a law, not an idle musing. There is actual math involved and the only real variables are transmission rates and mortality rates. The pool of available hosts and victims cannot exceed the sum total of everyone on the planet. The higher the mortality gets, the more trouble the virus has spreading because it kills the people that it needs to spread it.

u sew smrt

 

[Conager]

u sew smrt

ur knot-

Since you obviously do not grasp the significance. Since the pool is fixed, as a virus moves through the population the remainder of uninfected potential hosts and victims continually shrinks until it is insufficient to transmit the disease.

 

[stickygirl]

ur knot-

Since you obviously do not grasp the significance. Since the pool is fixed, as a virus moves through the population the remainder of uninfected potential hosts and victims continually shrinks until it is insufficient to transmit the disease.

This is like something overhead on a bus - are you for real? Nah, I must have missed the important bit. Tell me about how big this pool is - does it have a deep end and lifeguards?

 

[SpeareChucker]

OMG




Conager, listen to these disciples of Science.

Get your mind right...

 

[Mal_Huevo]

ur knot-

Since you obviously do not grasp the significance. Since the pool is fixed, as a virus moves through the population the remainder of uninfected potential hosts and victims continually shrinks until it is insufficient to transmit the disease.

Hurr durr

 

[HisArpy]

This is like something overhead on a bus - are you for real? Nah, I must have missed the important bit. Tell me about how big this pool is - does it have a deep end and lifeguards?

The fact is, the virus will quickly kill off those hosts who are susceptible to it. The ones who remain are those who are not so easily overwhelmed. At that point the infection rate of the virus will slow and those who catch it will have even better odds of survival.

Those survivors are the progenitors of the future. A future in which the CV19 virus disappears.

 

[Mal_Huevo]

OMG




Conager, listen to these disciples of Science.

Get your mind right...

What would we all do without such words of wisdom like "The pool of available hosts and victims cannot exceed the sum total of everyone on the planet."?
I bet nobody knew that. All the dems probably thought the virus would kill and infect more people than there are people.
If saying shit like that is considered being a disciple of science in the US, then yes, you should defund teachers ASAP!

 

[Mal_Huevo]

This is like something overhead on a bus - are you for real? Nah, I must have missed the important bit. Tell me about how big this pool is - does it have a deep end and lifeguards?

Someone should take little connie's water wings away and throw it in the deep end.

 

[colddiesel]

The results of the Swedish experiment to date are in.

"Johan Giesecke, former state epidemiologist of Sweden, and a professor emeritus at the Karolinska Institute, tells me criticisms of Sweden’s current rates of infection and death are premature. “Wait one year before you start counting deaths in different countries,” he says. “The countries that are opening up now will get their deaths with time.”"

I suppose we'll see.....

I suspect that Giesecke is betting that with Social distancing plus a very sharp increase in flu vaccinations, deaths from other causes will be down substantially. Here in Australia we have only had 7500 infections and 102 C19 deaths, but so far this winter there has been a significant reduction in total deaths (-15,000 for flu alone so far ) There have also been a lot less road and industrial accident fatalities but a sharp increase in the number of domestic dispute deaths.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Farr's Law is a law, not an idle musing. There is actual math involved and the only real variables are transmission rates and mortality rates.

Yep, but Farr's law is not the only mathematical law to track the curve on infections. There is also the IDEA model, which is really just a refinement of Farr's IMHO, and Power Law.

You might find this study an interesting read Conager ...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090233v1.full.pdf

The one snippet from it is :". Interestingly,Farr’s law seems to show that countries with earlier lockdown usually suffer lesser number of infection."

Why some might ask, well social distancing is considered in Farr's law...

 

[thør]

SARS-CoV-2 Could Have Been in Wuhan Last Summer, According to Harvard Study

 

[thør]

The Swedish model no longer exists.

 

[islandman]

The results of the Swedish experiment to date are in.

"Johan Giesecke, former state epidemiologist of Sweden, and a professor emeritus at the Karolinska Institute, tells me criticisms of Sweden’s current rates of infection and death are premature. “Wait one year before you start counting deaths in different countries,” he says. “The countries that are opening up now will get their deaths with time.”"

I suppose we'll see.....

Japan is going to get much younger very fast, I suspect.

 

[thør]

Japan is going to get much younger very fast, I suspect.

Perhaps. The USA, too.

 

[islandman]

Perhaps. The USA, too.

I'm in excellent health, tyvm.

 

[thør]

I'm in excellent health, tyvm.

You're not that old.

But, do you have type A blood?

 

[MonaLittle]

I'm in excellent health, tyvm.

Hey Iman!! Good to see you

 

[islandman]

You're not that old.

But, do you have type A blood?

Type C (coffee).