Is There A Purge Underway?

[jaF0]

On most of these threads, I've said that I don't, or rarely watch statistics. And that's almost always true.

But recently something has caught my eye. While the views are increasing, the number of votes on a couple of stories is decreasing. The ratings either stay the same, or change a hundredth one way or the other.

Not that it matters, just curious.

 

[PoisonPen33]

No, the Purge isn't until March 21st. Listen for the sirens.

Seriously though, it's probably part of the sweep for the Valentine's Day contest, taking advantage to do some housekeeping.

 

[SyleusSnow]

Looks like a sweep went through overnight. My valentines and 750 stories jumped significantly.

 

[SyleusSnow]

The red H is affecting you; isn't it?

You mean it doesn't affect everyone? Red H's bring much needed external validation into my empty life.

Seeing a red H on a 750 story, though, is pretty amazing. I thought it was impossible.

 

[jaF0]

The red H is affecting you; isn't it?

Not directly, no.

 

[MColton84]

On most of these threads, I've said that I don't, or rarely watch statistics. And that's almost always true.

But recently something has caught my eye. While the views are increasing, the number of votes on a couple of stories is decreasing. The ratings either stay the same, or change a hundredth one way or the other.

Not that it matters, just curious.

So, to re-ask, do the ratings stay the same? I've had one or two go up, but I've also had one or two go down. Is this something I should worry about with my older stories?

 

[SimonDoom]

So, to re-ask, do the ratings stay the same? I've had one or two go up, but I've also had one or two go down. Is this something I should worry about with my older stories?

Sure, they can change over time. No one can predict how readers will respond in the future to your stories. But in general, once a story has over 100 votes you have a good idea of its long-term score. It's statistically unlikely that a story will average 4.3 for its first 100 votes and 4.8 for its second 100. I had a story sit at exactly 4.49 for about two years until a sweep happened last summer and apparently boosted it over 4.5, and that was fun to see. But I've had other stories that lost a few tenths of points over the years.

 

[MColton84]

Sure, they can change over time. No one can predict how readers will respond in the future to your stories. But in general, once a story has over 100 votes you have a good idea of its long-term score. It's statistically unlikely that a story will average 4.3 for its first 100 votes and 4.8 for its second 100. I had a story sit at exactly 4.49 for about two years until a sweep happened last summer and apparently boosted it over 4.5, and that was fun to see. But I've had other stories that lost a few tenths of points over the years.

Thanks. This is the first time I noticed this happening. I had one drop .06 (correction .04) which put it at 4.45. The others changed by .02-.03. I'm not to worried about the H but the idea of my stories losing their rating over time seemed odd to me. I appreciate your clarifying that for me.

 

[LexxRuthless]

This has been going on since July of last year. I don't know if they have set the "sweeps" to run several times every day, or if it is something else, but almost every story on the site is losing votes daily. By my estimation, my stories have collectively had a little over 10,250 votes swept away over that span.

If you take a snapshot of your story statistics and then another one 12 hours or more later, you will see that some of your stories have a net loss. Sometimes you will see that one of them has a net of zero votes, but the score has changed. Still other times you will see numbers that just don't make sense, like a story picking up 600 views and only getting one or two net votes.

There was a thread where this was discussed when it first started happening, and I got grief for being an alarmist. I stopped mentioning it, but it is still going on every single day.

 

[NotWise]

Sure, they can change over time. No one can predict how readers will respond in the future to your stories. But in general, once a story has over 100 votes you have a good idea of its long-term score. It's statistically unlikely that a story will average 4.3 for its first 100 votes and 4.8 for its second 100. I had a story sit at exactly 4.49 for about two years until a sweep happened last summer and apparently boosted it over 4.5, and that was fun to see. But I've had other stories that lost a few tenths of points over the years.

I've seen this said before, but like other people I often see a pattern of the initial ratings being much lower than the later ratings, so I went back and checked some of the results. Some of the voting supports the idea that the score is stable after 100 votes, but some does not. Three cases for example:

Story 1: first 100 votes, 4.48, second 100 votes, 4.92
Story 2: first 100 votes, 4.54, second 100 votes, 4.72
Story 3: first 100 votes, 4.41, second 100 votes, 4.81

I'm a pretty strong believer that the reading population is very heterogeneous and its makeup changes with the time of day and the age of the story.

 

[Fervid]

I’ve seen a lot of fives swept out of my stories lately… The vote count goes down but they are fairly well-received stories so the score largely stays the same.

I have not seen the stories that I know have been 1- bombed swept lately. Three have combined for 8 1-bombs since the last sweep, last month. I guess I’m flattered.

Two stories have had their scores lowered dramatically overnight with no vote count change whatsoever. These are stories to get about one vote a month.

So no, I have absolutely no idea what is going on. You’re welcome.

 

[TarnishedPenny]

I've seen this said before, but like other people I often see a pattern of the initial ratings being much lower than the later ratings, so I went back and checked some of the results. Some of the voting supports the idea that the score is stable after 100 votes, but some does not.

I'm a pretty strong believer that the reading population is very heterogeneous and its makeup changes with the time of day and the age of the story.

Interesting thought.

 

[SimonDoom]

I've seen this said before, but like other people I often see a pattern of the initial ratings being much lower than the later ratings, so I went back and checked some of the results. Some of the voting supports the idea that the score is stable after 100 votes, but some does not. Three cases for example:

Story 1: first 100 votes, 4.48, second 100 votes, 4.92
Story 2: first 100 votes, 4.54, second 100 votes, 4.72
Story 3: first 100 votes, 4.41, second 100 votes, 4.81

I'm a pretty strong believer that the reading population is very heterogeneous and its makeup changes with the time of day and the age of the story.

May I ask, do you know if those stories received a lot views quickly, before there were any sweeps?

My typical incest story receives a lot more than 100 votes on the first day, but there are no sweeps within the first day, so it's weighed down by the 1-bombs. After a while the 1-bombs are gone via sweeps, and they never resume at the same pace as on the first day.

You're right to point out that my analysis was incomplete because the first day 1-bombs skew the results. So any predictions you make based on initial votes can only be made after the first sweep is done. But once you discount those votes that are swept the results you cite, especially for stories 1 and 3, would be very unusual. I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like that.

 

[SimonDoom]

This has been going on since July of last year. I don't know if they have set the "sweeps" to run several times every day, or if it is something else, but almost every story on the site is losing votes daily. By my estimation, my stories have collectively had a little over 10,250 votes swept away over that span.

If you take a snapshot of your story statistics and then another one 12 hours or more later, you will see that some of your stories have a net loss. Sometimes you will see that one of them has a net of zero votes, but the score has changed. Still other times you will see numbers that just don't make sense, like a story picking up 600 views and only getting one or two net votes.

There was a thread where this was discussed when it first started happening, and I got grief for being an alarmist. I stopped mentioning it, but it is still going on every single day.

I have not found this to be true. Starting in mid-July, a significant sweep began that deleted votes from my stories, old and new, for about three weeks. Then it stopped. I assume the Site admins were making an effort to sweep what they regarded as "invalid" votes from older stories. Since then, my vote totals and average votes per story have been rising. Nothing like what happened in July has continued. I know that because I total my votes about 2 to 3 times per week and have been monitoring vote totals pretty closely. For the stories that existed in my story portfolio as of July 1, 2020, the vote totals now are higher than they were then. So I see no cause for alarm.

 

[NotWise]

May I ask, do you know if those stories received a lot views quickly, before there were any sweeps?

My typical incest story receives a lot more than 100 votes on the first day, but there are no sweeps within the first day, so it's weighed down by the 1-bombs. After a while the 1-bombs are gone via sweeps, and they never resume at the same pace as on the first day.

You're right to point out that my analysis was incomplete because the first day 1-bombs skew the results. So any predictions you make based on initial votes can only be made after the first sweep is done. But once you discount those votes that are swept the results you cite, especially for stories 1 and 3, would be very unusual. I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like that.

I think all of those stories were contest stories and two were in I/T. They got votes quickly. I track voting on new stories, and actual 1* votes are (at least for me) not as common as some people like to think. If there were sweeps included on any of those examples, then they were minor.

If I have a vote removed between 100 and 200 votes, then I can't tell whether the vote cast was in the first 100 or the second 100. Flip a coin.

 

[SimonDoom]

I think all of those stories were contest stories and two were in I/T. They got votes quickly. I track voting on new stories, and actual 1* votes are (at least for me) not as common as some people like to think. If there were sweeps included on any of those examples, then they were minor.

If I have a vote removed between 100 and 200 votes, then I can't tell whether the vote cast was in the first 100 or the second 100. Flip a coin.

1 votes don't matter much for incest stories because they get so many views and votes.

I think there's something to what you've said. I think at 200 votes you have a really good idea about the long-term score. I'm not as sure that's true when the story is at 100 votes. For a popular incest story, one can get 100 votes within a few hours of publication. Reader behaviors at that point, even discounting 1 votes, may be quite different from long-term reader behaviors.

 

[lovecraft68]

I track voting on new stories, and actual 1* votes are (at least for me) not as common as some people like to think.

I think at this point-especially for contests, the trolls have evolved from one bombs. They've figured out-and possibly by conversations had here-that in a contest even a four vote can hurt when the winning stories are in the 4.8's and there may be a better chance of having them stick.

 

[NotWise]

1 votes don't matter much for incest stories because they get so many views and votes.

I think there's something to what you've said. I think at 200 votes you have a really good idea about the long-term score. I'm not as sure that's true when the story is at 100 votes. For a popular incest story, one can get 100 votes within a few hours of publication. Reader behaviors at that point, even discounting 1 votes, may be quite different from long-term reader behaviors.

For my I/T stories, the time it takes to get to 100 votes varies quite a bit, but it's dropped as my name recognition has increased. Recent contest stories broken 100 votes in 7-8 hours. I think the ones I cited broke 200 votes in the first day.

The early voters aren't always low voters, but enough have been to fuel the idea that the early voters are different from later voters.

But of course, as long as your story is visible for long enough and you get enough votes, then it will average out over time. I'm not sure the rating is actually stable on some of my low-vote stories, but they aren't going to change just because they get new votes so rarely.

 

[Emirus]

I’ve seen a lot of fives swept out of my stories lately… The vote count goes down but they are fairly well-received stories so the score largely stays the same.

So no, I have absolutely no idea what is going on. You’re welcome.

Shortly after this was last raised (Sept/Oct?) I took a snapshot of my scores at that time (with only twelve stories it’s easy) and every few weeks have checked them against current scores. There have been some weird fluctuations but nothing of any real consequence (except for one story which was aggressively 1-bombed several times in succession without any other votes being made) apart from my Summer Lovin’ contest entry which has lost a net 21 votes.

 

[PennameWombat]

Shortly after this was last raised (Sept/Oct?) I took a snapshot of my scores at that time (with only twelve stories it’s easy) and every few weeks have checked them against current scores. There have been some weird fluctuations but nothing of any real consequence (except for one story which was aggressively 1-bombed several times in succession without any other votes being made) apart from my Summer Lovin’ contest entry which has lost a net 21 votes.

I might be stating the obvious here for you and if so my apologies, but instead of screenshots if you’re at all conversant with spreadsheets you can download a .CSV version of your stats. There’s a little download icon at the top right of the list of stories. Click on that and it’ll download. I do that every so often, e.g., just before submitting a story and a few times after that. I haven’t seen a large number of votes disappear, although my unlamented Valentine’s 2021 entry lost most of the few votes it had. Lost a five off my other most recent story.

 

[LexxRuthless]

I might be stating the obvious here for you and if so my apologies, but instead of screenshots if you’re at all conversant with spreadsheets you can download a .CSV version of your stats. There’s a little download icon at the top right of the list of stories. Click on that and it’ll download. I do that every so often, e.g., just before submitting a story and a few times after that. I haven’t seen a large number of votes disappear, although my unlamented Valentine’s 2021 entry lost most of the few votes it had. Lost a five off my other most recent story.

I realized when I read this that I used the term "snapshot" when I meant "download the current story stats Excel file." If you take that latest Excel spreadsheet, and copy and paste the D, E, and F columns from the previous spreadsheet, you can easily insert a formula (=d2-k2) to show variance in your score, (=e2-m2) how many views each story got, (=f2-o2) and how many net votes each story has.

What you will see is that you are usually accumulating more votes overall, but several of your individual stories will have a net loss. From one day to the next, different stories will have lost votes. Since you can't see what the individual votes were, or even how many were removed, all that is left is that net. If you compare the number of views per vote before this started (which only works for stories that were posted prior to July of last year) you can estimate how many votes each story should have. (#views / views-per-vote ratio)

But you can download your story stats now, then take another look this time tomorrow, and see which of your stories has lost votes in that span. Statistically, if you have at least a dozen stories you should see net loss on some of them.

EDIT: Just took a fresh Excel download and compared it to the one I had from this time last night. My stories had a combined 5,109 new views and lost 47 votes overall. Nine of my stories actually showed net gains of 1-3 votes. This was a little worse than normal for the past month, as far as vote loss.

 

[ElectricBlue]

For the stories that existed in my story portfolio as of July 1, 2020, the vote totals now are higher than they were then. So I see no cause for alarm.

My stories also tend higher over time - and not only at the top end. I keep a lazy eye on my Red H threshold and find stories slowly creep over it.

 

[BobbyBrandt]

I hadn't even heard of the 'sweep' phenomenon until I started reading comments here.

Comparing 'before-and-after' stats for my stories, I see:

12 stories where the vote count increased
47 stories where the vote count decreased
03 stories where the vote count was static

My scores changed as follows:

07 stories had score increases (one by 0.34, gaining it a H)
06 stories had score decreases (one by .023, costing it a H)
47 stories had scores remain static

The two stories with the greatest changes were posted in April and May of last year, so it's interesting that this latest sweep affected them, unless this was the first sweep since then. Does anyone know?

 

[SimonDoom]

The two stories with the greatest changes were posted in April and May of last year, so it's interesting that this latest sweep affected them, unless this was the first sweep since then. Does anyone know?

There have been many sweeps since then.

The Site owners don't broadcast exactly how sweeps work or when they happen. That's deliberate. By keeping them mysterious they reduce the risk that people will get around them and game the system.

Sweeps usually happen during contests a little after the contest submission deadline has ended.

But last summer there was an extended period of about three weeks where stories were being swept daily. I think they went through the story archives to sweep stories that hadn't been swept before. But I couldn't make head or tail of what the method was or how stories were being chosen. Most of my stories were affected. Votes went down; scores went up, generally.

 

[AvroAnson]

Not a purge, a coup d'etat.

"Hear me! I am your new president. From this day on, the official language of San Marcos will be Swedish.

“In addition to that, all citizens will be required to change their underwear every half hour. Underwear will be worn on the outside so we can check.

“Furthermore, all children under 16 years old, are now 16 years old.”

-- The new president in Woody Allen's 'Bananas' (1971 film)


You all had better start learning Swedish.