Is Anyone Else Worried?

[scheherazade_79]

Lead article on the BBC News website:

A bird flu pandemic will hit Britain - but not necessarily this winter, the chief medical officer has said.
Sir Liam Donaldson said a deadly outbreak would come when a strain of bird flu mutated with human flu.

He told the BBC's Sunday AM show it would probably kill about 50,000 people in the UK, but the epicentre of any new strain was likely to be in East Asia.

Notice how he said "when" rather than "if".

As for vaccination, forget it. There have already been reports that HN51 has become resistant to traditional flu drugs. Also, effective innoculation against it can only come about when it starts jumping from person to person. By the time that happens it's going to be too late, because it'll take drugs companies months to patent the vaccination, squabble over financial matters, produce it and distribute it.

Things have already gone nuts in Indonesia. Nearly everybody keeps chickens in that country, regardless of whether they live in the countryside or the cities. What are the chances of someone who owns HN51 infected chickens getting the ordinary flu? Pretty high if you ask me.

This particular bird flu has a mortality rate of 70%, which puts it on par with viruses like Ebola.

I'm considering running away to the hills...

 

[mack_the_knife]

Yeah, a bit, it's something to keep an eye on, for sure.

 

[oggbashan]

Perspective

The 1918 flu epidemic killed more than World War 1.

The Black Death pandemic killed a third of the population of the UK.

SARS, AIDS, Ebola etc. have killed fewer people from the UK than traffic accidents. More people die in traffic accidents each year in the UK than from all deaths attributable to Chernobyl. And we are a nation of safe drivers!

The tsunami and the Pakistan earthquake have killed many more people each than most recent disease epidemics.

Bird flu, when it mutates, may kill hundreds, thousands. Until it kills tens of millions it won't be a pandemic. If it kills thousands in the UK then it will exceed deaths on the roads.

Anyone for banning cars?

Og

 

[matriarch]

The 1918 flu epidemic killed more than World War 1.

The Black Death pandemic killed a third of the population of the UK.

SARS, AIDS, Ebola etc. have killed fewer people from the UK than traffic accidents. More people die in traffic accidents each year in the UK than from all deaths attributable to Chernobyl. And we are a nation of safe drivers!

The tsunami and the Pakistan earthquake have killed many more people each than most recent disease epidemics.

Bird flu, when it mutates, may kill hundreds, thousands. Until it kills tens of millions it won't be a pandemic. If it kills thousands in the UK then it will exceed deaths on the roads.

Anyone for banning cars?

Og

Thank you Ogg, for the voice of sanity.
I abhor the way supposedly responsible government officers seem to be going out of their way to create panic.

 

[Alex756]

Thank you Ogg, for the voice of sanity.
I abhor the way supposedly responsible government officers seem to be going out of their way to create panic.

Also medical science has advanced alot from 1918. The existing flu shots have a decreasing effect on the seriousness of other types of flu, even ones not included in the shot. Antibiotics have come along way as well to help with seocndary infections. We also have an arsenal of anti virals. Not to mention the plethora of breathing aids which were developed for asthma but have proven very effective in flu, pnemonia, and RSV.

We are more prepared now by far than we were in 1918. Also we have a much bette rcomprehension of how disease spreads and how to stop the spread.

~Alex

 

[Halo_n_horns]

Keep in mind that the reporters of news make far more money from reporting the worst-case-scenario than they do from reporting what may be the most accurate. If they're already expecting then they're already preparing for it.

 

[LadyJeanne]

Keep in mind that the reporters of news make far more money from reporting the worst-case-scenario than they do from reporting what may be the most accurate. If they're already expecting then they're already preparing for it.

That's what we said about Hurricane Katrina...

 

[neonlyte]

It is necessary to bear in mind this is 'managed news', the spread of bird flu is toward the UK, there has already been one outbreak in Holland. It is inevitable that bird flu in birds will reach the UK requiring the mass slaughter of poultry. Remember, this government bore the brunt of beef herd slaughters, they would want to prepare the ground before the news media starts to record footage of mass bird extermination, how better than to spread a little fear. At the same time they signal the extremes of any future pandemic, they are covered both ways. How serious it might be for humans is a guess at this stage. What concerns me more is the news a few days ago that scientists have re-created the flu virus that caused the 1918 outbreak at a cost of 20m lives - it was done for research purposes, just what we need, yet another killer disease in the hands of the 'experts'

Cynically yours,
nl

 

[Halo_n_horns]

That's what we said about Hurricane Katrina...

...And the Africanized Killer Bees in America ...

 

[mack_the_knife]

The 1918 flu epidemic killed more than World War 1.

The Black Death pandemic killed a third of the population of the UK.

SARS, AIDS, Ebola etc. have killed fewer people from the UK than traffic accidents. More people die in traffic accidents each year in the UK than from all deaths attributable to Chernobyl. And we are a nation of safe drivers!

The tsunami and the Pakistan earthquake have killed many more people each than most recent disease epidemics.

Bird flu, when it mutates, may kill hundreds, thousands. Until it kills tens of millions it won't be a pandemic. If it kills thousands in the UK then it will exceed deaths on the roads.

Anyone for banning cars?

Og

The media will hype it 24/7 if it kills 20 people. If it reaches 1000, it will be dubbed a pandemic, betcha $10.

 

[Kassiana]

A flu pandemic will happen eventually. It's the nature of the virus. However, it's quite possible it'll be another mild one, like the 1968 pandemic was. And the "bird flu," while one candidate, is not the most likely one for a worldwide infection. Numerous people have already been infected with H5N1 and it still hasn't been proven to cross between humans. H2N2 is a good candidate, as the 1968 flu nearly wiped it out and thus there's an increasingly large number of people with no resistance to it.

I wouldn't worry about it, though. Taking the usual steps of washing your hands and so on greatly cuts down on your chances of catching a flu virus. Most flu viruses are not lethal, and most viruses mutate away from lethality in time. Ebola has, and the 1918 flu did, too.

 

[mack_the_knife]

A flu pandemic will happen eventually. It's the nature of the virus. However, it's quite possible it'll be another mild one, like the 1968 pandemic was. And the "bird flu," while one candidate, is not the most likely one for a worldwide infection. Numerous people have already been infected with H5N1 and it still hasn't been proven to cross between humans. H2N2 is a good candidate, as the 1968 flu nearly wiped it out and thus there's an increasingly large number of people with no resistance to it.

I wouldn't worry about it, though. Taking the usual steps of washing your hands and so on greatly cuts down on your chances of catching a flu virus. Most flu viruses are not lethal, and most viruses mutate away from lethality in time. Ebola has, and the 1918 flu did, too.

Stop interjecting reason into our preparations to panic. I've got 5,000 distrought protestors ready to roll when Bush drops the ball and lets us all die of the sniffles.

 

[kendo1]

There have been sixty deaths related to the bird flu virus.
Hardly a pandemic.

Medical science has moved on since 1918, and since the Black Death!

 

[minsue]

...And the Africanized Killer Bees in America ...

I hate those fucking bees

 

[mack_the_knife]

I hate those fucking bees

Let us not forget fireants, there's a freaking pandemic.

 

[Kassiana]

Stop interjecting reason into our preparations to panic. I've got 5,000 distrought protestors ready to roll when Bush drops the ball and lets us all die of the sniffles.

Oh. Um. Okay. Let's see.

Birds is very dangerous! They're diseases will cill your land lord!

Damn. I'm still missing it. I'm going to go look up the conspiracy dweebs who are scared of American Girl for inspiration. Bach in a minuet.

 

[mack_the_knife]

Oh. Um. Okay. Let's see.

Birds is very dangerous! They're diseases will cill your land lord!

Damn. I'm still missing it. I'm going to go look up the conspiracy dweebs who are scared of American Girl for inspiration. Bach in a minuet.

Nice try, but your heart isn't in it.

 

[minsue]

Let us not forget fireants, there's a freaking pandemic.

Ooooh, I hate them, too. But the bees chase you. Bastards.

 

[TheEarl]

Ooooh, I hate them, too. But the bees chase you. Bastards.

I'm covered in beeeeeess!!!

I like my women, like I like my coffee. Errrr... covered in beeesss!


.

.

.


Hmmpf. Pear would've got it.

The Earl

 

[Kassiana]

"I like my coffee hot ... and strong. Just like I like my women, hot and strong. And with a spoon in them."

Okay. I can do better.

If we don't stop it, the flu will kill two million people in the U.S. alone and hundreds of millions worldwide! It's estimated that the 1918 pandemic killed 8-10% of all young adults alive at the time! So let's hope it gets Britney Spears!

Damn. That still didn't come out right. Eddie Izzard you bastard!

 

[TheEarl]

"I like my coffee hot ... and strong. Just like I like my women, hot and strong. And with a spoon in them."

I like my women like I like my coffee: In a plastic cup.

The Earl

 

[kendo1]

Make mine a double.
Oops. Wrong thread.

 

[dr_mabeuse]

Keep in mind that the reporters of news make far more money from reporting the worst-case-scenario than they do from reporting what may be the most accurate. If they're already expecting then they're already preparing for it.

This is no joke, and this is no scare-mogering, unless you consider the CDC in Atlanta and the WHO to be in the business of scare-mongering. They've been keeping an eye on this for about three years now, knowing the virus exists, and waiting for it to mutate to be able to infect humans. Depending on how and when it mutates, it could be very bad.

It's important to realize that this isn't the aches-and-sniffles fluid-and-bedrest kind of flu. The last flu pandemic (ca 1918) killed somewhere between 25 and 50 million people worldwide and is deadliest for people between the ages of 18 and 34.

Here's from Wikipedia. It's about the last pandemic, but the coming one could be similar:
--------------------
The strain was unusual in commonly killing many young and healthy victims, as opposed to more common influenzas which caused the bulk of their mortality among newborns and the old and infirm. People without symptoms could be struck suddenly and be rendered too feeble to walk within hours; many would die the next day. Symptoms included a blue tint to the face and coughing up blood caused by severe obstruction of the lungs. In further stages, the virus caused an uncontrollable haemorrhaging that filled the lungs, and patients would drown in their own body fluids.

Mortality in the fast-progressing cases was primarily from pneumonia, by virus-induced consolidation. Slower progressing cases featured secondary bacterial pneumonias while some suspect neural involvement led to psychiatric disorders in a minority of cases. Some deaths resulted from malnourishment and even animal attacks in overwhelmed communities.

Global mortality rate from the influenza was estimated at 2.5%–5% of the population, with some 20% of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent. The disease spread across the world killing twenty-five million in the course of six months; some estimates put the total of those killed worldwide at over twice that number, possibly as high as 100 million. An estimated 17 million died in India alone, with a mortality rate of about 5% of the population. In the Indian Army, almost 22% of troops who caught the disease died of it. About 28% of the population of the U.S. suffered from the disease, and some 500,000–675,000 died from it. Some 200,000 were killed in Britain and more than 400,000 in France. The death rate was especially high in indigenous peoples where some entire villages perished in Alaska and southern Africa. Fourteen percent of the population of the Fiji Islands died in a period of only two weeks while 22% of the population of Western Samoa died. By July of 1919, 257,363 deaths in Japan were attributed to influenza, giving an estimated Japanese mortality rate of 0.425%, much lower than nearly all other Asian countries for which data are available.
------------------

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Flu

Personally, I'm scared. We shgould have been on top of this two years ago if we weren't spending all our goddamned fucking money in goddamned useless fucking Iraq.

 

[mack_the_knife]

Ok, it might be a serious threat. However, what are we supposed to do about it? Worry and stress lowers your immune system, by the way. Luckily, I'm already sickly and 37, so I'm in the clear, right?

 

[Kassiana]

[nitpick] The last pandemics were in 1957 and 1968. They were mild, highly infectious but killing few. The next one could easily be a mild one. [/nitpick]

Be scared if you wish of a lethal pandemic, but pandemics don't HAVE to be lethal.