Intrade

[JohnnySavage]

To the investors on Intrade, there was little question who came away from Wednesday night's presidential debate on top: Mitt Romney.

Intrade is a prediction market that allows investors to wager on the outcome of events. In this case: the presidential election. (

Earlier this week, the site's users placed the odds that President Obama would win re-election at about 75%. But in the minutes after the debate finished, the index showed Obama's numbers had fallen to 68.9%. An hour later, the odds had dropped further, to 67%.

The numbers may well change as more trades come in, but the figures suggest Romney improved his chances of capturing the White House. Of course, there is a long way to go, and at least two more presidential debates, before Election Day.

Intrade works by letting users swap contracts on events with a yes or no outcome. President Obama will win reelection, or he won't. A correct prediction moves the value of a contract to $10. A miss leaves you with $0.

But Intrade isn't just about betting. Its users are -- taken together -- shockingly good at correctly forecasting election results. Intrade bettors correctly picked the winner of every single state during the 2004 presidential election. In 2008, they missed two -- wrongly calling Indiana for John McCain and Missouri for Barack Obama.

And that is way, way more accurate than most single polls -- to say nothing of the predictions offered by the professional pundit class.

 

[tactful]

So the Market will be moving, faster, it's about time.

 

[berry juice]

collective wisdom (intrade predictions) is based on feelings, hear-say, media feeds and personal ignorance. Almost never the facts. It seems to be working so far. Such a herd mentality ppl have.

 

[chillywilly2]

I can see them analyzing all the things the candidates do, all the good and bad moves and speaches they make.

But how in hell to they factor in the stupidity of the voters

 

[tactful]

I can see them analyzing all the things the candidates do, all the good and bad moves and speaches they make.

But how in hell to they factor in the stupidity of the voters

Rock, Paper, Scissors, yet, in some classes, a simple heads or tails will do.

 

[LiFeNdEaTh]

thanks for sharing...

 

[koalabear]

thanks for sharing...

It's for the good of the collective.

 

[richard_daily]

collective wisdom (intrade predictions) is based on feelings, hear-say, media feeds and personal ignorance. Almost never the facts. It seems to be working so far. Such a herd mentality ppl have.

You just described the stock market perfectly.

 

[berry juice]

You just described the stock market perfectly.

well, one have to possess certain knowledge to trade on the stock market, but intrade is purely based on perception. The intrade outcome is what everyone else already know ( or suspect it will be) but it validates it with a number.