I don't usually make political predictions, but...

[Peregrinator]

...it really looks like we're looking at four more years of President Obama. Anyone have any data that contradicts that?

Disclaimer: I'm not a fan of Obama, didn't vote for him, and won't vote for him in November. If I had my druthers, Gary Johnson would be the next POTUS.

But, yeah. Willard is failing, imho, to get the votes. Ryan is a loss of the female vote. Independents see little difference between Will and Barry. We also see that Barry hasn't done a lot of damage, and we see that what Bill Clinton said is true: "Obama didn't clean up after Bush fast enough, so vote for us," is a silly argument. Especially given that Romney is a liberal weathervane who changes his position every two years on every issue that matters.

Is this what we've come to? Does anyone have any argument or data, poll results, whatever, that say Romney might win?

 

[IrezumiKiss]

*sits back and waits for the inevitable pseudo-political squawk shitstorm to ensue*

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Uh huh, ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW THAN YOU WERE 4 YEARS AGO? HOW SAFE IS YOUR JOB? IF NOT NOW, WHEN IS OBAMA GONNA DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE ECONOMY?

 

[islandman]

For me, the last few elections have been about voting for "the lesser of the two evils".

That distinction is now much harder to discern this election year.

 

[phrodeau]

Rasmussen.

 

[phrodeau]

Uh huh, ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW THAN YOU WERE 4 YEARS AGO? HOW SAFE IS YOUR JOB? IF NOT NOW, WHEN IS OBAMA GONNA DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE ECONOMY?

When is the Republican-led Congress going to do something about the economy? And when are they going to stop blocking Obama's measures?

 

[VaticanAssassin]

My guess is he wins the electoral and loses the popular...so yep, 4 more years

 

[Peregrinator]

For me, the last few elections have been about voting for "the lesser of the two evils".

That distinction is now much harder to discern this election year.

For me, that's been every election since I turned 18 and voted for Reagan over Mondale. I've decided that voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil, as someone just posted on my Facebook page a few minutes ago. But I agree; this election is even worse than most others in my adult memory.

 

[gotsnowgotslush]

It could tip either way. The Voter ID laws have months to worm their way in.

 

[Lancecastor]

Here's what I think:

Mormonism is still considered a fringe religion with a slight Scientology wierdness around it...if the Republicans really thought they were going to win this thing, they'd have a mainstream church-goer of some kind up there, not Romney.

Hell, the Democrats had Obama going to some middle of the road church for years before they'd let him put his head up on the national radar...they made sure he lived in the right house, etc etc...

The real candidates are groomed by competing factions within the inner circles of each party....whereas Romney simply bought his way up to have a shot in an off cycle election.

And that's fine; he's a decent guy and probably no less qualified than Obama was to be President....maybe even more.

But between the Morman thing,
the birth control and abortion wacko stuff and
filling his pockets on Wall St in the run-up to the Great Recession....

I don't think he has a chance in hell.

And that Ryan guy has a fascist vibe.

(amongst Dems, I don't like those hispanic twins from texas, btw either...but I think Elizabeth Warren could walk in to the President's job tomorrow and get it right, don't you?)

 

[Adre]

If you spend any time listening to some of the assclowns in the House of Reps, the two nominees for President start to look pretty good as far as politicians go.

 

[phrodeau]

Facist? Did you omit the S, or should the F be an R?

 

[gotsnowgotslush]

For me, the last few elections have been about voting for "the lesser of the two evils".

That distinction is now much harder to discern this election year.

I dunno about that- I shudder to think of what would have happened if McCain and Palin had won.

https://www.alaskadispatch.com/arti...years-ago-mccain-announced-alaska-gov-vp-pick

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/30/john-mccain-dick-cheney-sarah-palin_n_1718706.html

 

[RobDownSouth]

The handwriting is on teh wall....

Romney, Super PACS concede Michigan and Pennsylvania to Democrats

Things are looking good for President Obama, he essentially has a lock on 256 electoral votes...he only needs 270 to win.

Rmoney can technically still win but he'd have to run the table in every remaining tossup state and I just don't see that happening.

 

[Lancecastor]

Facist? Did you omit the S, or should the F be an R?

He spends a LOT of time on Facebook and that worries me.

 

[Peregrinator]

Here's what I think:

Mormonism is still considered a fringe religion with a slight Scientology wierdness around it...if the Republicans really thought they were going to win this thing, they'd have a mainstream church-goer of some kind up there, not Romney.

Hell, the Democrats had Obama going to some middle of the road church for years before they'd let him put his head up on the national radar...they made sure he lived in the right house, etc etc...

The real candidates are groomed by competing factions within the inner circles of each party....whereas Romney simply bought his way up to have a shot in an off cycle election.

And that's fine; he's a decent guy and probably no less qualified than Obama was to be President....maybe even more.

But between the Morman thing,
the birth control and abortion wacko stuff and
filling his pockets on Wall St in the run-up to the Great Recession....

I don't think he has a chance in hell.

And that Ryan guy has a facist vibe.

(amongst Dems, I don't like those hispanic twins from texas, btw either...but I think Elizabeth Warren could walk in to the President's job tomorrow and get it right, don't you?)

If you spend any time listening to some of the assclowns in the House of Reps, the two nominees for President start to look pretty good as far as politicians go.

I agree with both of these posts.

Also, Lance, I wish you'd just be this guy all the time and not the trolling, abusive shithead you are at other times. This guy brings a lot of interest to the forum. The trolling is ugly.

 

[Wrong Element]

The handwriting is on teh wall....

Romney, Super PACS concede Michigan and Pennsylvania to Democrats

Things are looking good for President Obama, he essentially has a lock on 256 electoral votes...he only needs 270 to win.

Rmoney can technically still win but he'd have to run the table in every remaining tossup state and I just don't see that happening.

This is yet another parallel between this election and 2004. Kerry's problem that year was the lack of any margin for error: he had to win all the states he was competitive in. He came close, but lost Ohio.

Does anyone have any argument or data, poll results, whatever, that say Romney might win?

There are a few:

1. Obama has had trouble getting to 50 percent in any poll, and the closer you get to Election Day, the more likely it is that undecideds break for the challenger.

2. Republicans are probably still more motivated than Democrats. I saw a poll not long ago showing Obama with a 9 point lead among all voters, but a 1 point lead among "likely voters." That's a huge difference.

3. Romney is going to outspend Obama, probably by a big margin.

4. The effect of vote suppression, especially in Ohio and Florida, is unknown right now but could be enough to tip some states.


There are arguments in the other direction of course, but I'm just addressing the question.

 

[zipman]

For me, that's been every election since I turned 18 and voted for Reagan over Mondale. I've decided that voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil, as someone just posted on my Facebook page a few minutes ago. But I agree; this election is even worse than most others in my adult memory.

I thought 2004 was worse.

The problem with Romney is so far, all he's done is said what he's not. He hasn't defined who he really is or what he stands for and certainly not in a credilbe manner.

 

[Lancecastor]

I agree with both of these posts.

Also, Lance, I wish you'd just be this guy all the time and not the trolling, abusive shithead you are at other times. This guy brings a lot of interest to the forum. The trolling is ugly.

Variety is the spice of life.

 

[hogjack]

There are plenty - plenty - of people stupid enough to continue voting for two corrupt, self-serving Parties.

America will have to declare bankruptcy (probably early 2014) because Americans, as a whole, ain't real bright. It is gonna get ugly but it will also be fun to watch the turmoil, incompetent leaders and their dedicated sheep scramble, blame each other and fight for the scraps!!

There ain't enough "rich" people to tax to dig out of the huge, huge hole even if the wealthy were taxed at 100%.

Smart people are prepping because it is going to get ugyl

 

[RobDownSouth]

There are plenty - plenty - of people stupid enough to continue voting for two corrupt, self-serving Parties.

America will have to declare bankruptcy (probably early 2014) because Americans, as a whole, ain't real bright. It is gonna get ugly but it will also be fun to watch teh turmoil, incompetent leaders and their dedicated sheep scramble, blame each other and fight for teh scraps!!

There ain't enough "rich" people to tax to dig out of teh huge, huge hole even if teh wealthy were taxed at 100%.

Smart people are prepping because it is going to get ugyl

Quoting for posterity.

Somalia beckons, big boy!

 

[Wrong Element]

I thought 2004 was worse.

The problem with Romney is so far, all he's done is said what he's not. He hasn't defined who he really is or what he stands for and certainly not in a credilbe manner.

You can't get elected statewide in Massachusetts AND win a Republican presidential campaign without changing your position on pretty much everything. It just adds to the air of complete phoniness around the man.

But you're right: Romney is running a very generic opposition campaign, light on specifics by design.

 

[gotsnowgotslush]

Lancecastor, I am Massachusetts, through and through- And I still do not understand why we had RMoney for governor.

"Republican Mitt Romney was elected Massachusetts' next governor by a margin of more than five percent."

I am betting that the Republicans will vote for anyone that is willing. I will laugh my head off when RMoney does not follow the script.
(But, I will probably water down my beverage with bitter tears, when I see what RMoney does to the people of America if he wins.)

Elizabeth Warren ? She is one smart cookie.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Not that I completely disagree with Lance but if GW was groomed and not just claiming his birthright things are a little more fucked than I see them as.

I agree with both of these posts.

Also, Lance, I wish you'd just be this guy all the time and not the trolling, abusive shithead you are at other times. This guy brings a lot of interest to the forum. The trolling is ugly.

How in the eleven hells do you find enough faults with Obama that you can't vote for him and like Elizabeth Warren?

There are plenty - plenty - of people stupid enough to continue voting for two corrupt, self-serving Parties.

America will have to declare bankruptcy (probably early 2014) because Americans, as a whole, ain't real bright. It is gonna get ugly but it will also be fun to watch the turmoil, incompetent leaders and their dedicated sheep scramble, blame each other and fight for the scraps!!

There ain't enough "rich" people to tax to dig out of the huge, huge hole even if the wealthy were taxed at 100%.

Smart people are prepping because it is going to get ugyl

Wow. Am I the only person who kinda secretly hopes Hog is right cus I haven't gotten to shoot anybody for being retarded yet and if I don't do it soon I might not be around the next time being retarded is fatal?

 

[koalabear]

Romney in a landslide, Johnson second, Oblamer third.