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Who Is Fighting for Whom in Iraq?
By Mustafa Malik
The San Diego Union-Tribune
Wednesday 29 December 2004
A tiger killed a fawn and began munching on it, according to a popular Bangladeshi folk tale. A hungry bear jumped on the tiger to snatch the carcass away. The two fought until both lay mortally wounded, unable to move. A fox, which was watching the fight from a bush, scampered to the dead fawn and feasted to its heart's content.
The United States overthrew Saddam Hussein only to be overwhelmed by Sunni Arab insurgency. But Sunni Arabs, being a minority, can't come to power through the Jan. 30 elections. This is why most of them are boycotting the vote.
A pro-Iranian electoral alliance of the Shiite majority is predicted to win a majority of parliamentary seats and form the government. The Iranians are helping the alliance with money and volunteers, ignoring President Bush's warnings against "meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq."
During an appearance on an Iranian TV show recently, I was asked by an interlocutor what gave "invaders from the other end of the world the right to question our help and support" to his fellow Shiites in Iraq. Iran had been sheltering Iraqi exiles, he
added, since before "(Defense Secretary) Donald Rumsfeld and (former New York Congressman) Stephen Solarz were making pilgrimages to Baghdad (in the 1980s) with your president's goodwill messages to Saddam."
The war to overthrow Saddam, a bitter enemy of Israel, was masterminded by a group of neoconservatives, and Patrick Buchanan and others accused them of dragging America into "Israel's war." Now Arab commentators are saying that America is fighting "Iran's war." The U.S. invasion has, besides facilitating the creation of a pro-Iranian government in Baghdad, wrecked the military power of Iraq, Iran's historic adversary.
Iraqi Shiites aren't a monolith, and the elections could be followed by an intra-Shiite power struggle, alongside a broader one among Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Sunni Kurds. And the United States is deepening the Shiite-Sunni divide.
President Bush got his Sunni Arab protégés, King Abdullah and interim Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawar, to denounce Iranian "interference" in Iraqi affairs. Also, the Americans are prodding interim Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi to try to put together a Sunni-dominated party to counter the pro-Iranian
Shiite alliance. All these are alienating America from Iraqi Shiites, prompting them to align more closely with Iran. If ethnic and sectarian strife splits Iraq, the Shiite south would be the natural ally of Shiite Iran. If Iraq stays in one piece, the Iranians are
likely to exert influence on its politics and policies through its Shiite majority.
Iran isn't the only "fox" making hay from the fall of Saddam. The war has mobilized anti-American and anti-regime forces in the region to an unprecedented level. Muslim guerrillas from neighboring countries have joined the Iraqi insurgency. Islamist activists have ratcheted up their campaign against Jordanian and
Saudi Arabian monarchies, citing these regimes' tacit support for the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
An Arab American friend who has returned from a tour of the region tells me that in Jordan's cafes and on college campuses King Abdullah II is being openly denounced as America's "lackey" and "collaborator." My friend had not seen Jordanians criticize the monarchy so harshly and publicly before.
Unprecedented, too, was the recent attempt to stage anti-government demonstrations in Saudi Arabia. The London-based Movement for Islamic Reforms, which U.S. intelligence sources suspect is linked to Osama bin Laden, called for the protest. Hundreds of activists were preparing to pour into the streets of
Riyadh and Jeddah when police dispersed them.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Consulate in Jeddah came under a brazen attack from "al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula," and bin Laden was quick to release an audio tape commending the guerrillas. More ominous is his call to supporters to target America's oil
supplies, which prompted a series of attacks on Iraq's oil infrastructure. Bin Laden may have set his eyes on the most vital U.S. interest in the region, which seemed to be safe before the Iraq war.
Maybe America is fighting bin Laden's war, too.
By Mustafa Malik
The San Diego Union-Tribune
Wednesday 29 December 2004
A tiger killed a fawn and began munching on it, according to a popular Bangladeshi folk tale. A hungry bear jumped on the tiger to snatch the carcass away. The two fought until both lay mortally wounded, unable to move. A fox, which was watching the fight from a bush, scampered to the dead fawn and feasted to its heart's content.
The United States overthrew Saddam Hussein only to be overwhelmed by Sunni Arab insurgency. But Sunni Arabs, being a minority, can't come to power through the Jan. 30 elections. This is why most of them are boycotting the vote.
A pro-Iranian electoral alliance of the Shiite majority is predicted to win a majority of parliamentary seats and form the government. The Iranians are helping the alliance with money and volunteers, ignoring President Bush's warnings against "meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq."
During an appearance on an Iranian TV show recently, I was asked by an interlocutor what gave "invaders from the other end of the world the right to question our help and support" to his fellow Shiites in Iraq. Iran had been sheltering Iraqi exiles, he
added, since before "(Defense Secretary) Donald Rumsfeld and (former New York Congressman) Stephen Solarz were making pilgrimages to Baghdad (in the 1980s) with your president's goodwill messages to Saddam."
The war to overthrow Saddam, a bitter enemy of Israel, was masterminded by a group of neoconservatives, and Patrick Buchanan and others accused them of dragging America into "Israel's war." Now Arab commentators are saying that America is fighting "Iran's war." The U.S. invasion has, besides facilitating the creation of a pro-Iranian government in Baghdad, wrecked the military power of Iraq, Iran's historic adversary.
Iraqi Shiites aren't a monolith, and the elections could be followed by an intra-Shiite power struggle, alongside a broader one among Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Sunni Kurds. And the United States is deepening the Shiite-Sunni divide.
President Bush got his Sunni Arab protégés, King Abdullah and interim Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawar, to denounce Iranian "interference" in Iraqi affairs. Also, the Americans are prodding interim Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi to try to put together a Sunni-dominated party to counter the pro-Iranian
Shiite alliance. All these are alienating America from Iraqi Shiites, prompting them to align more closely with Iran. If ethnic and sectarian strife splits Iraq, the Shiite south would be the natural ally of Shiite Iran. If Iraq stays in one piece, the Iranians are
likely to exert influence on its politics and policies through its Shiite majority.
Iran isn't the only "fox" making hay from the fall of Saddam. The war has mobilized anti-American and anti-regime forces in the region to an unprecedented level. Muslim guerrillas from neighboring countries have joined the Iraqi insurgency. Islamist activists have ratcheted up their campaign against Jordanian and
Saudi Arabian monarchies, citing these regimes' tacit support for the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
An Arab American friend who has returned from a tour of the region tells me that in Jordan's cafes and on college campuses King Abdullah II is being openly denounced as America's "lackey" and "collaborator." My friend had not seen Jordanians criticize the monarchy so harshly and publicly before.
Unprecedented, too, was the recent attempt to stage anti-government demonstrations in Saudi Arabia. The London-based Movement for Islamic Reforms, which U.S. intelligence sources suspect is linked to Osama bin Laden, called for the protest. Hundreds of activists were preparing to pour into the streets of
Riyadh and Jeddah when police dispersed them.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Consulate in Jeddah came under a brazen attack from "al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula," and bin Laden was quick to release an audio tape commending the guerrillas. More ominous is his call to supporters to target America's oil
supplies, which prompted a series of attacks on Iraq's oil infrastructure. Bin Laden may have set his eyes on the most vital U.S. interest in the region, which seemed to be safe before the Iraq war.
Maybe America is fighting bin Laden's war, too.