Here comes Isabel!

[John Roberts]

*Ab Blows really really hard to push Isabel to the middle of the ocean*

Hopefully that'll work

He..he....that is quite a blow job!

 

[Owlz]

Sunday, 9/14 Tracking Update

3-day track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W+GIF/140858W.gif

 

[Owlz]

Sunday, 9/14 Tracking Update

5-Day Track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/140858W5.gif

 

[John Roberts]

Heads Up! Eastern Seaboard

000
WTNT43 KNHC 141459
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

..........................................................................SATELLITE FIX
POSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
AND THE LATEST 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOW STRONGLY
CONVERGENT ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE WAS A SLIGHT
WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THERE IS NOW MUCH LESS
DIVERGENCE AMONG THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST
COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH
COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL
FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND
STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA.
LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH
CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND
REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96
HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL
REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB
WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 23.7N 66.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 24.2N 67.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 25.2N 69.6W 135 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 26.1N 70.6W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 27.2N 71.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 30.0N 73.2W 120 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 34.5N 75.5W 110 KT...NEAR NORTH CAROLINA
120HR VT 19/1200Z 41.0N 77.5W 70 KT...INLAND

 

[John Roberts]

Just a bump

Just to keep it active and people aware, if this thing goes up the Chesapeake ....it will not be pretty.

 

[Peteslaw2]

Re: Just a bump

Just to keep it active and people aware, if this thing goes up the Chesapeake ....it will not be pretty.

Nope, that is me and my boat at 8 pm on Thursday.

 

[John Roberts]

Still the same as the last graphic posted by Owlz

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/150258W5.gif

 

[John Roberts]

Just a bump!

 

[Owlz]

3-Day & 5-Day Tracks as of 11:00 EDT 9/15

3-Day Track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/AL1303W.GIF

5-Day Track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/151458W5.gif

 

[Icey*Fire]

I grew up in Houston,Tx. and have been through a couple of Hurricanes before moving up here to east Tx.
Carla hit us in the early 1960's, dont remember the exact date but I know it was a bad one, not as bad as some of course. But I was a child and I remember the fury of it. The windows in our house all blew out, but no one was injured thank God.

Anyway I just wanted to say that my prayers are with everyone out there and I hope all of you will be more than prepared and get through it safely.

My neice and her son who live in NC are on their way back here to Tx. tomorrow, thank goodness.

Once again please everyone be prepared and stay as safe as possible.

 

[redrider4u]

wow, it's pointed right at tidewater, va, where I used to live. I dont miss the hurricane scares anymore. They'll be going nuts down there preparing. By tomorrow there will not be a battery left in a store.

I imagine they might send the fleet to sea, and AF jets inland.

 

[John Roberts]

I grew up in Houston,Tx. and have been through a couple of Hurricanes before moving up here to east Tx.
Carla hit us in the early 1960's, dont remember the exact date but I know it was a bad one, not as bad as some of course. But I was a child and I remember the fury of it. The windows in our house all blew out, but no one was injured thank God.

Anyway I just wanted to say that my prayers are with everyone out there and I hope all of you will be more than prepared and get through it safely.

My neice and her son who live in NC are on their way back here to Tx. tomorrow, thank goodness.

Once again please everyone be prepared and stay as safe as possible.

I am with you on this one Icey*Fire, I truly hope everyone gets through this one safely.

Because drinkable water can be in short demand, make sure you all have plenty of water, paper towels,paper plates, wipes, non perishable food stuffs because the power can be out for god knows how long. Top off your gas tanks on your vehicles. Stay inside while the wind is blowing, flying debris can be quite treacherous.
Keep a few comfort foods around, as that can be quite nice when you have been snacking on sandwhiches and soup for a few days.
When Floyd passed Palm Beach County I lost power and really enjoyed the coffee I made on my little gas stove. Was by myself in the night with the wind.......I heard a mighty crash........a very large mango tree fell over I was to find the next day......my Aunt in Hugo...slept right through it....(she is hard of hearing not to mention a fondness for libation) Had two trees crash into her house did not stir her in the least.

 

[FlaminLeviathan]

sooooo pretty

 

[Owlz]

Latest Hurricane Isabitch 5-Day Projected Track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/160858W5.gif

 

[FlaminLeviathan]

Holy shit! this thing is gettin kinda crazy

 

[John Roberts]

sooooo pretty

Nice picture! I am going to have to download this one.

My sister in law did not heed my warning and was totally unprepared, they have no power for at least five days.
At least they are fine and safe.

 

[FlaminLeviathan]

Glad to hear thier fine hopefully everythin will be back to normal in no time