Gallup lead of over 50% in October means victory?

[ChinaBandit]

Useless trivia or important point?

No candidate to have a 50%, or more, lead among Gallup's survery of "likely voters" in October has ever gone on to lose a presidential election.

Romney is at 51% today among likely voters.

Obama's not touched 50% this October.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

Useless trivia or important point?

No candidate to have a 50%, or more, lead among Gallup's survery of "likely voters" in October has ever gone on to lose a presidential election.

Romney is at 51% today among likely voters.

Obama's not touched 50% this October.

Shouldn't you be telling your ayee to make you a glass of warm milk? You know - out of the kindness of your heart for lifting her from poverty and all.

 

[ChinaBandit]

A Chinese friend of mine summed up the overall view of the American election here:

"In 20 days the zoo doors will swing open and put Obama over the top."

 

[John Doe]

A Chinese friend of mine summed up the overall view of the American election here:

"In 20 days the zoo doors will swing open and put Obama over the top."

What?

 

[Liar]

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

No, it means now the pollsters are lying...

 

[mercury14]

No, it means now the pollsters are lying...

Which Democrat is accusing the pollsters of lying? Or is that just a RW thing?

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Fucking moron.

 

[mercury14]

Fucking moron.

So you can name exactly zero Democrats who are pulling the victim card you and the rest of the RW nuts adore?

But you have your ascription and that's all you need for something to be true, right?

 

[ChinaBandit]

The point is, this is a factual truth.

Does this mean Romney will win or is this election a) more volatile than any other b) Gallup may need to re-tool their polling methodolgy going forward?

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

The point is, this is a factual truth.

Does this mean Romney will win or is this election a) more volatile than any other b) Gallup may need to re-tool their polling methodolgy going forward?

"Everyone" knows Obama is going to win.

Just two weeks ago he was double digits. The only way a lead like that goes away is Republican corruption...


:nods:

 

[mercury14]

The point is, this is a factual truth.

Does this mean Romney will win or is this election a) more volatile than any other b) Gallup may need to re-tool their polling methodolgy going forward?

We shouldn't cherry pick one poll and take it as Gospel.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

One-man Titanic band...

 

[mercury14]

Rasmussen has Obama up +3 in swing states. How come conservatives abandoned their favorite pollster?

 

[Wat_Tyler]

"Everyone" knows Obama is going to win.

Just two weeks ago he was double digits. The only way a lead like that goes away is Republican corruption...


:nods:

Comanchero voting methods.


We'll be swapping our carts for Priuses before you know it.


Prii???


The tongue balks at the sound.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

... and the band played on...


Apples and Oranges I think it was,
The guy beside me was white as a ghost!
He was seeing fallen heroes and screaming in Austrian for a corpse-man to meet him in the 57th state, Oiho, on the banks of Asian Hawaii...

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Comanchero voting methods.


We'll be swapping our carts for Priuses before you know it.


Prii???


The tongue balks at the sound.

Prii and voltage! The only cars allowed under anti-dog-eat-dog law dog!
__________________
Canis legis Kansae

 

[ChinaBandit]

We shouldn't cherry pick one poll and take it as Gospel.

You can call it cherry picking, but the point is that this one (Gallup likely voters over 50% for one candidate in October) has NEVER been wrong. That's all I am saying. Of course, there is a first time.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

You can call it cherry picking, but the point is that this one (Gallup likely voters over 50% for one candidate in October) has NEVER been wrong. That's all I am saying. Of course, there is a first time.

And if you had seen even a little bit of merc parsing the word terror yesterday, then you would know that this is that one time.

 

[mercury14]

Gallup also has Obama's approval rating at 50% where no president has ever lost re-election. So which "never before" is going to be the first to break?

Gallup's own research says the unemployment rate is actually 7.7%, lower than the clearly phony BLS report. And economic confidence is up. This pollster is clearly invalid!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158060/unadjusted-unemployment-mid-october.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158051/economic-confidence-best-may.aspx

 

[mercury14]

The Real Clear Politics poll aggregator shows Gallup to be an outlier. That doesn't mean it's wrong but that it should be taken in context.

Rasmussen: Romney +1
Gallup: Romney +6
IBD: Obama +2
ABC News: Obama +3
Politico/Battleground: Obama +1
Monmouth: Romney +1
Fox News: Romney +1

Gallup uses a 7-day rolling average so it's always dated - and since we're looking at yesterday's release it's all polling from before the debate.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

And if you had seen even a little bit of merc parsing the word terror yesterday, then you would know that this is that one time.

Was I wrong???

 

[RobDownSouth]

Was I wrong???

Absolutely.

You tried no less than six times to parse President Obama's words (telling us to ignore that pesky transcript and telling us what President Obama "really" meant to say).

You failed miserably each time.

Yesterday was not a good day for you, but hell, election seasons in general are not good for you.

Your arguments have gotten progressively more shrill and I'm enjoying watching you self-destruct.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

The gift that keeps on giving...



__________________
... and we slink like alley cats,
Tearing down what we attack,
To prove that we are 'won...'
INXS

 

[RobDownSouth]

Six times you tried
Six times you failed.

Failure is one of the constants in your life.