shadowsource
A Flash In The Pain
- Joined
- Jun 1, 2001
- Posts
- 1,664
Friends: This is a pretty good analysis from a web site called Stratfor.com, which is a kind of private CIA, or so the Wall Street Journal called them recently. I subscribe to it, and I lifted this for those of you whou care about the Ulster situation. It's a kind of briefing. Cheers....
Decommissioning No Peace Guarantee
2250 GMT, 011025
Summary
External events have pushed the Irish Republican Army to take unprecedented disarmament steps. Though this does much to reinvigorate the peace process in Northern Ireland, hard-line factions on both sides will complicate continued progress.
Analysis
The Irish Republican Army reportedly sealed an arms depot containing an undisclosed number of weapons, ammunition and explosives Oct. 23 -- the first such permanent decommissioning move in the 28-year history of "The Troubles." The Independent International Commission on Decommissioning has verified the IRA put the arms "completely and verifiably beyond use."
The surprise move pulled the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland back from the brink of dissolution. Ulster Union Party (UUP) leader David Trimble will reportedly recommend a power-sharing government that would involve Sinn Fein, the political arm of the IRA. Further progress now depends on both sides' ability to forge a broad consensus to accept the positions of mainstream leaders. Hard-line elements and splinter groups will challenge both Sinn Fein, which favors unification with the Republic of Ireland, and unionists, who advocate continued British rule of the six counties of Northern Ireland, and thereby create further questions about the possibility of lasting peace.
Related Analysis:
Northern Ireland: British Rule Appears Imminent
-15 August 2001
Basque and Irish Separatists Ruffle EU's Future
-6 July 2001
The relative weakness of the IRA position in the new global context -- and the prospect that militant republicans will be rewarded with concessions for decommissioning -- means unionists are likely to face the greatest resistance from within their ranks. And although republican decommissioning will likely continue, it will not mean complete disarmament. The IRA likely will hold back some arms and seek to maintain foreign patronage as insurance against failure of a peace deal.
Unionist complaints about a lack of IRA decommissioning perpetually troubled the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. The latest crisis reached a head in early October, when five unionist Cabinet ministers resigned to protest the lack of decommissioning by republicans, who favor uniting with the Irish Republic. If the impasse had not been resolved, the government would likely have been dissolved. Sinn Fein and the IRA faced a difficult choice: either move forward with decommissioning or allow Northern Ireland to slip back under London rule, at least for a time.
The latter was the more likely outcome until two external events forced hard-line republicans to reconsider their position. One was the detention in August of three suspected IRA members in Colombia. The men have been charged with training guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the FARC, in the use of explosives and urban terrorism techniques. Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams admitted Oct. 22 that one of the men was the party's official representative in Cuba. The second event was the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, and the subsequent focus by governments and law enforcement officials across the globe on stamping out international terrorists and their financial networks.
The combination of events fundamentally altered the long-term prospects for the IRA'S cause. The organization suddenly faced the possibility of being labeled an international terrorist group -- as opposed to a militant organization with domestic political goals - and this would have wiped out any gains Sinn Fein has made in peace negotiations. The pressure from London, Dublin and Washington for decommissioning greatly intensified after Sept. 11, the Times of London reports.
If the situation in Northern Ireland were allowed to deteriorate further -- and if more ties to the FARC or to other drugs, arms-smuggling or listed terrorist organizations were uncovered -- the IRA's financial support, its assets and thus its very existence would be in jeopardy.
These concerns were the likely factors driving a series of well-choreographed events -- including an Oct. 22 meeting between Adams and Trimble -- culminating in the decommissioning announcement.
Mainstream republican and unionist leaders must now build an internal consensus to move collectively forward while avoiding further violence. That will be difficult.
For starters, the unionists are far from unified. The UUP is split between moderates, led by Trimble, and hard-liners opposed to negotiating with republicans. One prominent anti-agreement UUP member called the decommissioning "a one-off gesture," according to the BBC. Other, more hard-line unionist parties have refused to recognize the decommissioning. One Democratic Unionist Party leader called the move "smoke and mirrors and sleight of hand and fudge and haziness" that "barely scratches the surface" of decommissioning. Another DUP representative urged people to "look beyond IRA rhetoric."
Of greater concern is a potential backlash from pro-unionist paramilitaries, whose "guns and bombs are being used almost on a daily basis," according to the BBC. None of the paramilitaries -- including the Loyalist Volunteer Force, Ulster Defence Association or Ulster Volunteer Force -- have indicated they intend to reciprocate. "Decommissioning [by loyalists] is not on the cards," said one source from the UDA, which has orchestrated some of the worst sectarian violence in the history of the Troubles, The Guardian reported. Paramilitaries may also react negatively to concessions to republicans, such as demilitarization by Britain. London already has begun dismantling four British security installations in Northern Ireland.
Republicans are also fractured. The IRA's seven-member army council acted independently on the initial decommissioning, according to the Guardian. The body decided against seeking approval from the membership at large, as is customary for major decisions. There is guaranteed to be dissent within the larger membership, much of which views the IRA as a legitimate army fighting for independence from Britain and would see any negotiated settlement as tantamount to surrender.
This view is held more strongly by breakaway groups like the Real IRA and the Continuity IRA, which have claimed responsibility for several bombings and have shown a great capacity to attract disgruntled mainstream IRA members. However, strong public statements by Adams and Martin McGuiness, the two most important figures in the republican movement, in favor of decommissioning bode well for republican unity, especially considering the limited alternatives.
The very nature of the Troubles, with daily confrontations in the houses of politics and on the streets of Belfast, makes the risk for renewed violence high. It also ensures that, though decommissioning has finally begun, it will be years before both sides truly lay down their arms.
Decommissioning No Peace Guarantee
2250 GMT, 011025
Summary
External events have pushed the Irish Republican Army to take unprecedented disarmament steps. Though this does much to reinvigorate the peace process in Northern Ireland, hard-line factions on both sides will complicate continued progress.
Analysis
The Irish Republican Army reportedly sealed an arms depot containing an undisclosed number of weapons, ammunition and explosives Oct. 23 -- the first such permanent decommissioning move in the 28-year history of "The Troubles." The Independent International Commission on Decommissioning has verified the IRA put the arms "completely and verifiably beyond use."
The surprise move pulled the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland back from the brink of dissolution. Ulster Union Party (UUP) leader David Trimble will reportedly recommend a power-sharing government that would involve Sinn Fein, the political arm of the IRA. Further progress now depends on both sides' ability to forge a broad consensus to accept the positions of mainstream leaders. Hard-line elements and splinter groups will challenge both Sinn Fein, which favors unification with the Republic of Ireland, and unionists, who advocate continued British rule of the six counties of Northern Ireland, and thereby create further questions about the possibility of lasting peace.
Related Analysis:
Northern Ireland: British Rule Appears Imminent
-15 August 2001
Basque and Irish Separatists Ruffle EU's Future
-6 July 2001
The relative weakness of the IRA position in the new global context -- and the prospect that militant republicans will be rewarded with concessions for decommissioning -- means unionists are likely to face the greatest resistance from within their ranks. And although republican decommissioning will likely continue, it will not mean complete disarmament. The IRA likely will hold back some arms and seek to maintain foreign patronage as insurance against failure of a peace deal.
Unionist complaints about a lack of IRA decommissioning perpetually troubled the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. The latest crisis reached a head in early October, when five unionist Cabinet ministers resigned to protest the lack of decommissioning by republicans, who favor uniting with the Irish Republic. If the impasse had not been resolved, the government would likely have been dissolved. Sinn Fein and the IRA faced a difficult choice: either move forward with decommissioning or allow Northern Ireland to slip back under London rule, at least for a time.
The latter was the more likely outcome until two external events forced hard-line republicans to reconsider their position. One was the detention in August of three suspected IRA members in Colombia. The men have been charged with training guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the FARC, in the use of explosives and urban terrorism techniques. Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams admitted Oct. 22 that one of the men was the party's official representative in Cuba. The second event was the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, and the subsequent focus by governments and law enforcement officials across the globe on stamping out international terrorists and their financial networks.
The combination of events fundamentally altered the long-term prospects for the IRA'S cause. The organization suddenly faced the possibility of being labeled an international terrorist group -- as opposed to a militant organization with domestic political goals - and this would have wiped out any gains Sinn Fein has made in peace negotiations. The pressure from London, Dublin and Washington for decommissioning greatly intensified after Sept. 11, the Times of London reports.
If the situation in Northern Ireland were allowed to deteriorate further -- and if more ties to the FARC or to other drugs, arms-smuggling or listed terrorist organizations were uncovered -- the IRA's financial support, its assets and thus its very existence would be in jeopardy.
These concerns were the likely factors driving a series of well-choreographed events -- including an Oct. 22 meeting between Adams and Trimble -- culminating in the decommissioning announcement.
Mainstream republican and unionist leaders must now build an internal consensus to move collectively forward while avoiding further violence. That will be difficult.
For starters, the unionists are far from unified. The UUP is split between moderates, led by Trimble, and hard-liners opposed to negotiating with republicans. One prominent anti-agreement UUP member called the decommissioning "a one-off gesture," according to the BBC. Other, more hard-line unionist parties have refused to recognize the decommissioning. One Democratic Unionist Party leader called the move "smoke and mirrors and sleight of hand and fudge and haziness" that "barely scratches the surface" of decommissioning. Another DUP representative urged people to "look beyond IRA rhetoric."
Of greater concern is a potential backlash from pro-unionist paramilitaries, whose "guns and bombs are being used almost on a daily basis," according to the BBC. None of the paramilitaries -- including the Loyalist Volunteer Force, Ulster Defence Association or Ulster Volunteer Force -- have indicated they intend to reciprocate. "Decommissioning [by loyalists] is not on the cards," said one source from the UDA, which has orchestrated some of the worst sectarian violence in the history of the Troubles, The Guardian reported. Paramilitaries may also react negatively to concessions to republicans, such as demilitarization by Britain. London already has begun dismantling four British security installations in Northern Ireland.
Republicans are also fractured. The IRA's seven-member army council acted independently on the initial decommissioning, according to the Guardian. The body decided against seeking approval from the membership at large, as is customary for major decisions. There is guaranteed to be dissent within the larger membership, much of which views the IRA as a legitimate army fighting for independence from Britain and would see any negotiated settlement as tantamount to surrender.
This view is held more strongly by breakaway groups like the Real IRA and the Continuity IRA, which have claimed responsibility for several bombings and have shown a great capacity to attract disgruntled mainstream IRA members. However, strong public statements by Adams and Martin McGuiness, the two most important figures in the republican movement, in favor of decommissioning bode well for republican unity, especially considering the limited alternatives.
The very nature of the Troubles, with daily confrontations in the houses of politics and on the streets of Belfast, makes the risk for renewed violence high. It also ensures that, though decommissioning has finally begun, it will be years before both sides truly lay down their arms.
