Fuck Russia

[ll74]

"Russian missile strike hits shopping centre in Kremenchuk, Ukraine" https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753?t=wk0OYKumNSP4kiuNgp5--Q&s=09

 

[Biggs_Darklighter]

I can only imagine what Ukrainian mall hair is like.

 

[LupusDei]

The Russians long ago used up their best and most accurate munitions.

Now, they are stuck with old stock and firing it off is very much akin to the faithful of Allah using their AK47s to pray and spray; if they hit anything at all, it is the will of Allah, so they don't even bother to aim.

Now, if we want to engage in a rousing chorus of Let's Go Brandon, then if we weren't wasting billions of dollars to send Ukraine our best munitions, then this would have ended in a negotiated settlement a long time ago and Russia would not be committing these "atrocities."

We should have concentrated on building up neighboring NATO countries with those munitions as a deterrent as well as expanding NATO on Russia's borders while they were busy in a one-legged kicking contest trying to hold down the captured territory in Ukraine.

No. Simply no, that was/is not a viable option. There had not be such a negotiated settlement anyway, just more destruction and death, and bigger concentration camps. What is being done isn't nearly enough, but it is probably best that can be done in a bad situation.

 

[icanhelp1]

No. Simply no, that was/is not a viable option. There had not be such a negotiated settlement anyway, just more destruction and death, and bigger concentration camps. What is being done isn't nearly enough, but it is probably best that can be done in a bad situation.

Half ass measures produce half ass results. Either go all in with Ukraine and give them what they ask for or push for a cease fire. Right now it’s a slow bleed at the Ukrainians expense. Should have given them the migs long ago. Should also have given them M109s, TRIPLE SEVENS and MLRSs months ago. Biden is doing what he does best; attack everything half ass…. It’s hard to watch this. The inevitable is obvious and the complete destruction of infrastructure will happen. The west is acting like this is a video game, SAD

 

[oggbashan]

... It's EUROPE'S problem. Let them finance it and fight it out.

Hell, it might even be China's problem...

Europe is financing and supporting Ukraine with billions of dollars.

NATO Europe, tomorrow, will probably agree to increase its rapid response units from the current 40,000 to 300,000.

And all that is Putin's fault. NATO wasn't threatening anyone but he has invaded Ukraine and is threatening the Baltic states, Moldova and Poland.

He has only himself to blame for the rearming of Europe. Putin has done more to increase NATO countries spending on Defence than Trump's rhetoric.

 

[jomar]

Dang, excellent points. Have you, ic and jq, texted your solutions to those in charge of things?

 

[ll74]

Leave it to the few to turn this thread into a stupid Brandon chat. Russia has been bombing civilians unabashedly for months. It's horrible

This seems a lot like wars of the past where certain countries hold out support of the opposition until an event pulls them in....what willl it take to get Turkey and India and China to rescind their support and join the rest of the world?

I also saw that Russia is ignoring their default because it's not their fault. ¯\(°_o)/¯

 

[ll74]

I already addressed than before Let's Go Brandon sublimated your Let's Go Russia.

Sure ya did.

 

[ll74]

Good. Y'all fight it out. I don't want another dime to be thrown away because, in the end, like the 1930s, we're going to gladly surrender parts of Ukraine over to Putin, no matter how much aid we render.

The Ukraine would be the one handing over part of their country to Russia.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

If Russia ultimately prevails in taking Ukraine territory without repercussions, expect more civilians being killed in armed conflicts around the world.

 

[LupusDei]

Civilians around the world are always being killed in armed conflicts around the world and this outbreak isn't breaking, or changing, that pattern of behavior. All the weapons in the world sent to mitigate the killing is only going to exacerbate and prolong the killing of civilians.

Every Weapon sent to Ukraine in whatever quantity even at the trickle as it is, shorten and contain the war. Not the opposite. The opposite doesn't exist outside delusional narratives.

Good. Y'all fight it out. I don't want another dime to be thrown away because, in the end, like the 1930s, we're going to gladly surrender parts of Ukraine over to Putin, no matter how much aid we render.

If you consider the ultimate goal to be weakening Russia as much as possible with disregard to Ukraine, the current way is extremely cost efficient.

Let's see some what if-s.

With "unlimited" support to Ukraine, they might have been about to take Sevastopol right about now, but not yet Donetsk anyway. That's just a realistic timeline. The war wouldn't be significantly less destructive, just a bit more joyful to watch.

But there's a risk Russia would have already converted the Special Operation to a full War (with has broad legal implications within Russia) and likely be getting ready for renewed offensive by the autumn. The hope would be that that would be relatively easily repulsed, even though Russian loses in equipment would probably be less by now, simply for spending more time in favorable defense.

The current strategy is one of a long war, to keep Russians believe they're doing okay-ish despite horrendous loses of mostly inconsequential minority peoples (like the very real ongoing genocide of Buryats that Putin probably see as win-win proposition) but most importantly equipment that can't be replaced.

It is madness to believe Russians aren't acting at the peak of their current abilities. And the truth is, they have no reserves. No, they don't. The huge armed forces totals even if weren't inflated by corruption aren't actually useful for frontline tasks or have their own. That's why idea of Finland joining NATO is strategically interesting. Russians may not have an actual, real world need to reinforce that border if/when that happens but they may. (Currently all there is left along all that border are barely three third divisions (conscript/training) without artillery regiments, urgently substituted by an ASM coastal battery driven inland when Finland announced the intention.)

Their current mobilization measures are still far from sufficient to maintain force levels in longer term, given the lose rates. While, depending on how integration of the current draft class goes in the autumn there can be a slight bump late this year, anything after that would require measures right now we aren't seeing. In short, Russia is still betting on ending current active phase within this year, with the depleted forces they have already, and it's still race to collapse.

Now, do Russians actually have that option to "wake up" and mobilize an overwhelming new army? At the start of the war they choose not to, as what they fielded was the maximum field force they could actually support (and it was proven too ambitious already). Now, with every passing day that possibly diminish further. And the longer they don't believe in a long war, the worse it gets. There's already reports of training regiments sent to frontlines as stopgap measures.

T62's are already taken out of storage in numbers. There's signs Russians are even already tapping ammunition storages in Belarus. No, it doesn't mean they're necessarily running low on ammo globally, they're likely just running low of stores close, but given how insanely labor intensive their supply system is, the far east ammo dumps may be... less relevant people seem to think.

Quite soon (sometime next year, probably) they will have no instructors, no equipment, no ammunition, and even no people willing actually fight instead of gushing online about their perceived military might.

But Ukraine needs ammo and replacements to keep the grinder going.

And ideally, some newer air defenses so the rear areas can return to more productive life. And I hear, it may be on the way.

 

[icanhelp1]

Every Weapon sent to Ukraine in whatever quantity even at the trickle as it is, shorten and contain the war. Not the opposite. The opposite doesn't exist outside delusional narratives.



If you consider the ultimate goal to be weakening Russia as much as possible with disregard to Ukraine, the current way is extremely cost efficient.

Let's see some what if-s.

With "unlimited" support to Ukraine, they might have been about to take Sevastopol right about now, but not yet Donetsk anyway. That's just a realistic timeline. The war wouldn't be significantly less destructive, just a bit more joyful to watch.

But there's a risk Russia would have already converted the Special Operation to a full War (with has broad legal implications within Russia) and likely be getting ready for renewed offensive by the autumn. The hope would be that that would be relatively easily repulsed, even though Russian loses in equipment would probably be less by now, simply for spending more time in favorable defense.

The current strategy is one of a long war, to keep Russians believe they're doing okay-ish despite horrendous loses of mostly inconsequential minority peoples (like the very real ongoing genocide of Buryats that Putin probably see as win-win proposition) but most importantly equipment that can't be replaced.

It is madness to believe Russians aren't acting at the peak of their current abilities. And the truth is, they have no reserves. No, they don't. The huge armed forces totals even if weren't inflated by corruption aren't actually useful for frontline tasks or have their own. That's why idea of Finland joining NATO is strategically interesting. Russians may not have an actual, real world need to reinforce that border if/when that happens but they may. (Currently all there is left along all that border are barely three third divisions (conscript/training) without artillery regiments, urgently substituted by an ASM coastal battery driven inland when Finland announced the intention.)

Their current mobilization measures are still far from sufficient to maintain force levels in longer term, given the lose rates. While, depending on how integration of the current draft class goes in the autumn there can be a slight bump late this year, anything after that would require measures right now we aren't seeing. In short, Russia is still betting on ending current active phase within this year, with the depleted forces they have already, and it's still race to collapse.

Now, do Russians actually have that option to "wake up" and mobilize an overwhelming new army? At the start of the war they choose not to, as what they fielded was the maximum field force they could actually support (and it was proven too ambitious already). Now, with every passing day that possibly diminish further. And the longer they don't believe in a long war, the worse it gets. There's already reports of training regiments sent to frontlines as stopgap measures.

T62's are already taken out of storage in numbers. There's signs Russians are even already tapping ammunition storages in Belarus. No, it doesn't mean they're necessarily running low on ammo globally, they're likely just running low of stores close, but given how insanely labor intensive their supply system is, the far east ammo dumps may be... less relevant people seem to think.

Quite soon (sometime next year, probably) they will have no instructors, no equipment, no ammunition, and even no people willing actually fight instead of gushing online about their perceived military might.

But Ukraine needs ammo and replacements to keep the grinder going.

And ideally, some newer air defenses so the rear areas can return to more productive life. And I hear, it may be on the way.

They also need trained replacements. I don't know for sure if it's actually happening but Ukrainians should have platoon and company size elements training in NATO countries not only in tactics but also on modern weaponry.

 

[oggbashan]

They also need trained replacements. I don't know for sure if it's actually happening but Ukrainians should have platoon and company size elements training in NATO countries not only in tactics but also on modern weaponry.

The UK is training Ukrainians IN Ukraine to use the weaponry the UK supplies. There are also many Brits, ex-UK forces, fighting (and dying) with Ukrainians.

 

[LupusDei]

They also need trained replacements. I don't know for sure if it's actually happening but Ukrainians should have platoon and company size elements training in NATO countries not only in tactics but also on modern weaponry.

It is happening, across variety of formats, places and platforms. One can always want more, but those efforts exist and are substantial.

While Ukraine didn't openly mobilize before the war (on hopes to push it forward still) they did immediately upon hostilities and are claiming to be rather constrained by equipment than lack of volunteers, and at least early on there was little doubt that could very well be true. They say having aim for 500k army by the year's end, and possibly eventually a million including all formations.

Then, some analysts, notably pro-Russian Serbians, claim the actual fighting core of Ukrainian army had been barely 50-60k throughout and aren't expected to notably grow as the actual replacement rate with any quality in it is low and slow, and that's about max what current western pledged equipment covers anyway. Despite obvious biases they could be on to something too.

Ukrainian loses aren't disclosed, but I believe the "up to hundred" a day could be realistic estimate as overall average, and consistent with the (lower end of) alleged kill rates of between 1:3 to 1:7 in Ukrainian favor. Kept that way, Ukrainians should both come out on top, and, as cruel it is to say, be able to afford it -- but probably not many expensive stunts like the Severodonetsk counteroffensive as much of fun on Russian expense it had been (besides of blowing the huge buildup of seemingly major victory Russians had had already by then, the alleged military genius behind it was to attrit best Russian assault units heavily concentrated in the area, upon political objectives fight for at any cost by Russians while of relatively low consequence for Ukraine, so they retreated when they had to).

The equipment is the headache. Like, there's a claim circulating, actually on the fly back of the envelope estimate, although made by a high up Ukrainian military official, that Ukraine may have lost a total of up to 700 artillery pieces of various types by now. Likely exaggerated, and we are talking about (althoug by now only almost exclusively) Russian caliber systems Ukraine may eventually abandon anyway. However, all triple sevens ever made in the world aren't half of the number of guns Ukraine could want to rearm fully to NATO calibers, given the current intensity on frontlines of over thousand miles.

Meanwhile, some good news, PzH2000 battery may grow to full 18:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541839813736890369

 

[LupusDei]

Also, Erdogan apparently ended his opposition to Finland & Sweden joining NATO.

 

[jaF0]

Also, Erdogan apparently ended his opposition to Finland & Sweden joining NATO.

Yeah, but I haven't seen what he got for it. Maybe the shopping center thing turned him. Or India sucking up to Putty.

 

[oggbashan]

Yeah, but I haven't seen what he got for it. Maybe the shopping center thing turned him. Or India sucking up to Putty.

He got an agreement on a mutual anti-terrorism partnership. He saw Finland and Sweden as harbourers of Kurdish terrorists. They don't see it that way but they watch the Kurds carefully.

 

[Ovidius]

Leave it to the few to turn this thread into a stupid Brandon chat. Russia has been bombing civilians unabashedly for months. It's horrible

This seems a lot like wars of the past where certain countries hold out support of the opposition until an event pulls them in....what willl it take to get Turkey and India and China to rescind their support and join the rest of the world?

I also saw that Russia is ignoring their default because it's not their fault. ¯\(°_o)/¯

As far as the Indians are concerned, I guess that China's mere existence and the fact that no one will sell them any good weapons if they persist will do the trick.

 

[Ovidius]

The Russians long ago used up their best and most accurate munitions.

Now, they are stuck with old stock and firing it off is very much akin to the faithful of Allah using their AK47s to pray and spray; if they hit anything at all, it is the will of Allah, so they don't even bother to aim.

Now, if we want to engage in a rousing chorus of Let's Go Brandon, then if we weren't wasting billions of dollars to send Ukraine our best munitions, then this would have ended in a negotiated settlement a long time ago and Russia would not be committing these "atrocities."

We should have concentrated on building up neighboring NATO countries with those munitions as a deterrent as well as expanding NATO on Russia's borders while they were busy in a one-legged kicking contest trying to hold down the captured territory in Ukraine.

You are missing the point that the Chinese were in on it; they and the Russians discussed and planned this. What they want is exactly what you seem to be looking for, to show the world that American guarantees (e.g. the 1994 Budapest memorandum) are worthless. That is something that would benefit them enormously in the Pacific. They would also love to the US walk away from Russia now, only to later face them alone in the Pacific.

 

[colddiesel]

Another thread in which LupusDei makes more sense than everyone else put together. It does however, need someone to say that the cowardice of JohnQuillz is typical of an American appeaser in the Chamberlain mould. The world needs to operate on the basis that if Putin is not resisted he will inevitably turn his attention to Moldova, Lithuania (Konigsberg) and any opportunity further west.

Attacking shopping centres is criminally tragic, but the most important news of the week is Russia's default on loan interest payments. China too will be concerned that Russia cannot pay her debts, so they will barter down the value of imports from Russia.

 

[ll74]

Another thread in which LupusDei makes more sense than everyone else put together. It does however, need someone to say that the cowardice of JohnQuillz is typical of an American appeaser in the Chamberlain mould. The world needs to operate on the basis that if Putin is not resisted he will inevitably turn his attention to Moldova, Lithuania (Konigsberg) and any opportunity further west.

Attacking shopping centres is criminally tragic, but the most important news of the week is Russia's default on loan interest payments. China too will be concerned that Russia cannot pay her debts, so they will barter down the value of imports from Russia.

I think the default was expected. The question will be what comes from it and by who. Putin seems to be working the angle that it shouldn't reflect on Russia since everyone else has blocked their ability to pay on debts.

 

[LupusDei]

Yeah, but I haven't seen what he got for it. Maybe the shopping center thing turned him. Or India sucking up to Putty.

Apparently, Erdogan got all he asked for. Every single thing. None of which has any substance behind it. It's a great theatrical strongman win for Erdogan with only expense from F&W in same pride of being apparent to bend the knee.

There is what Turkey allegedly claims to have extracted:

• Sweden/Finland will lift its arms embargo
• Both will support Turkey on PKK, stop support to YPG
• They will amend their laws on terrorism
• They will share Intel with each other
• They will extradite terror suspects
• Finland and Sweden will support Turkey’s participation to EU’s Pesko
• Turkey, Finland and Sweden will establish a permanent joint mechanism to consult on justice, security and intelligence

Sounds like terrible capitulation?
Only...
- there's no specific arms embargo to be cancelled and being partners in NATO will change the now strict rules anyway
- PKK is labeled terrorist group by both long ago already, neither give direct military aid to YPG, does this cover humanitarian aid or asylum seekers is unclear, but highly unlikely
- terrorism laws had actually been already just amended by both, sufficiently, independently from this, so there's no actual charge
- Intelligence sharing, why not, again, NATO do that except if there's some specific concerns
- other sources challenge that there been no specific agreement on extraditions, so likely no substantial change actually
- yes, third countries can participate in EU PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation, a defense&security integration mechanism), Norway had been active, US and Canada have applied to specific projects
- whatever?

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Apparently, Erdogan got all he asked for. Every single thing. None of which has any substance behind it. It's a great theatrical strongman win for Erdogan with only expense from F&W in same pride of being apparent to bend the knee.

There is what Turkey allegedly claims to have extracted:


Sounds like terrible capitulation?
Only...
- there's no specific arms embargo to be cancelled and being partners in NATO will change the now strict rules anyway
- PKK is labeled terrorist group by both long ago already, neither give direct military aid to YPG, does this cover humanitarian aid or asylum seekers is unclear, but highly unlikely
- terrorism laws had actually been already just amended by both, sufficiently, independently from this, so there's no actual charge
- Intelligence sharing, why not, again, NATO do that except if there's some specific concerns
- other sources challenge that there been no specific agreement on extraditions, so likely no substantial change actually
- yes, third countries can participate in EU PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation, a defense&security integration mechanism), Norway had been active, US and Canada have applied to specific projects
- whatever?

As I mentioned before, Turkey had two options, first to vote against it, and find the rest of NATO voting favour and the announcing Sweden and Finland as members. Or for Erdogan to cut a deal. I am pretty certain that in the backroom deals, he was made aware NATO would be including Sweden and Finland, potentially with Turkey becoming a NATO outlier.

 

[LupusDei]

You are missing the point that the Chinese were in on it; they and the Russians discussed and planned this. What they want is exactly what you seem to be looking for, to show the world that American guarantees (e.g. the 1994 Budapest memorandum) are worthless. That is something that would benefit them enormously in the Pacific. They would also love to the US walk away from Russia now, only to later face them alone in the Pacific.

Theres a hot take... that Chinese got coned by Putin a bit on this, and reportedly aren't happy with the proceedings at all. Apparently what Putin promised was fast, happy and glorious Crimea 2.0 that could then serve as a template for taking Taiwan. The absolute horror that unrolled made even China cringe. It wasn't what they had planned for. It wasn't what they could have use for.

Subsequently, Chinese support to Russia is all bells and no metal. In actuality, Chinese commerce is leaving Russia alongside Western, Chinese banks cut Russia off, etc. Yes, they're buying oil and gas for cheap, but even at least one of the newly planned gas pipelines got actually frozen behind the scenes. And ammunition, Putin (well actually the sad horse M6 agent Lavrov) was sent to beg from Kim.

 

[mayfly13]

I wanted to reply to the poster who said that Ukraine is losing the war,
but I think he deleted that post



Yes, it's obvious to most that, tragically, Ukraine is losing the ground war AND the sanctions war.

Americans are saying otherwise to save face but also because THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND RUSSIANS.
When Americans talk about Russians, they describe either what some cartoonish monster would do, or the opposite - what an American would do.

Re sanctions:
They don;t understand that the sanctions were doomed from the start.
Instead of making people revolt against Putin (whom they used to see as a dictator), the sanctions triggered their national vanity and patriotism, and made them rally behind Putin.