For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[Baztrachian]

Let's not also forget that Russian nuclear forces are a shadow of their former self. It's debatable whether those weapons would actually work - look at whats happened with their ballistic missile launches - and one failure immediately removes the credibility of their nuclear deterrent. What if they launched a nuke and it was a dud?

Russia's Mayak nuclear facility suffered a devastating disaster back in 2017.

https://www.livescience.com/66050-radiation-cloud-secret-russian-nuclear-accident.html

Mayak was their only weapons-grade processing facility and it is kaput.

Russian nuclear cores have a shelf life of about ten years and that means anything older than 2015 is iffy at best for functionality.

NONE of the Soviet era nukes are functional at this point. Maybe they can be used as dirty bombs but they will NOT go critical. I doubt that the weapons themselves are in good shape given the damage that constant radioactive bombardment does to metal objects like weapons casings, delicate electronics, and etc.

Frankly, once you account for Russian corruption I'd expect that Russia has fewer than a dozen functional weapons. Maybe even none.

The bloody things cost money when they're just sitting around and Russia doesn't have that kind of money.

 

[TJX]

I can't get into specifics but I was on the sidelines of a couple wargames where the Russian nuclear forces were simultaneously destroyed and no nuclear weapons were used. The scenarios were technologically possible and plausible and that was factoring in scenarios where the Russians compromised aspects of the operations.

I was trying to highlight the Russian actions. Things like make outrageous demands over and over until they become acceptable. Think no NATO for Ukraine. Another is don’t ask for everything at once. Consolidate gains and use them for spring boards for further concessions. Never forget that Russia does not negotiate in good faith. Another is to terrorize the civilian population so that they will welcome Russian occupation to end the violence. Sound familiar? Read up on Proud Profit and you will learn everything you need to know about how Russia approaches this war.

 

[Baztrachian]

I was trying to highlight the Russian actions. Things like make outrageous demands over and over until they become acceptable. Think no NATO for Ukraine. Another is don’t ask for everything at once. Consolidate gains and use them for spring boards for further concessions. Never forget that Russia does not negotiate in good faith. Another is to terrorize the civilian population so that they will welcome Russian occupation to end the violence. Sound familiar? Read up on Proud Profit and you will learn everything you need to know about how Russia approaches this war.

When the Russians reach their stage of issuing bullshit threats the problem is that they often back themselves into a corner where they think they have to do something to keep up appearances.

Like in the Baltic right now the idiots are violating airspace and taunting the smaller nations and I expect the Russians will soon enough shoot down a NATO member aircraft (civilian or military) because the fuckers used to do that shit way back when and they got away with it, too.

I don't think anyone is in the mood to put up with that kind of shit so if they do it things will get hairy pretty quick.

As they should.

 

[TJX]

Possible but I think it’s more likely Poland or the Baltics shoots down the next Russian aircraft that violates their airspace.

 

[OralAllOver]

Let's not also forget that Russian nuclear forces are a shadow of their former self. It's debatable whether those weapons would actually work - look at whats happened with their ballistic missile launches - and one failure immediately removes the credibility of their nuclear deterrent. What if they launched a nuke and it was a dud?

Now also, take a look at everything else thats happening. The Russian econmy is imploding. There was just a large demo in St Petersbug where they were singing some sng from Wan Lake which apparently has all sorts of connotations. Recruiting bonuses have been cut in half the oblasts because they don;t have the money ad these Russian soldiers are mercanaries - no money, no bodies. Recruiting was already drying up, Pokrovsk was Putin;s last big kick at the can and it's been a failure. Ukraine are making local advances here and there. Russian air defences are gone and Russia is a wide open target for Ukrainian missiles and drones.

Ukraine is winning by holding the line and destroying the Russian econmomy - Russia WILL implode at some point OR somene will bite the bullet, Putin will get the cop and a realist will take over and try to keep the Russian Federation together - it may not be too late to do that.

Trump and Putin conferences at this point are just a distraction with little meaning other than to flatter Trump's ego

Debatable if they work? Is this a debate between (Someone who doesn't mind if 1,000,000,000 children die) vs (Someone worse or crazier than that)

Idea: it's debatable whether the Pacific Ocean is deeper than 1 meter. Maybe you walk to Hawaii?

It's debatable whether ... you probably get the point though you seem confused about how debates work

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Debatable if they work? Is this a debate between (Someone who doesn't mind if 1,000,000,000 children die) vs (Someone worse or crazier than that)

Idea: it's debatable whether the Pacific Ocean is deeper than 1 meter. Maybe you walk to Hawaii?

It's debatable whether ... you probably get the point though you seem confused about how debates work

See Baztrachian's post above. Russia's nuclear threats are jyst blowing smoke out their ass
And don't forget most of the scientits and engineers were Ukrainian

• Russia's Mayak nuclear facility suffered a devastating disaster back in 2017.
• https://www.livescience.com/66050-radiation-cloud-secret-russian-nuclear-accident.html
• Mayak was their only weapons-grade processing facility and it is kaput.
• Russian nuclear cores have a shelf life of about ten years and that means anything older than 2015 is iffy at best for functionality.
• NONE of the Soviet era nukes are functional at this point. Maybe they can be used as dirty bombs but they will NOT go critical. I doubt that the weapons themselves are in good shape given the damage that constant radioactive bombardment does to metal objects like weapons casings, delicate electronics, and etc.
• Frankly, once you account for Russian corruption I'd expect that Russia has fewer than a dozen functional weapons. Maybe even none.
• The bloody things cost money when they're just sitting around and Russia doesn't have that kind of money.