Fay

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

000
Wtnt41 Knhc 160858
Tcdat1
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al062008
500 Am Edt Sat Aug 16 2008

Even Though We Cannot Determine Exactly Where The Center Of Fay Is
Located...satellite Imagery And Data From An Air Force
Reconnaissance Aircraft Suggest It Is Still Inland...over
South-central Hispaniola Near The Border Between The Dominican
Republic And Haiti. The Air Force Plane Circumnavigated The Entire
Island Of Hispaniola During The Past Few Hours...enduring Some
Rather Turbulent Conditions...especially Within The Strongest
Thunderstorms Near The Southern Coast...and We Appreciate The Hard
Work Of The Crew. Flight-level And Sfmr Data From The Aircraft
Support Maintaining The Intensity At 40 Kt. Fay Remains Beneath A
Large Upper-level Anticyclone Resulting In Well-established Outflow
Aloft...and Despite The Interaction With Mountainous Terrain...the
Storm Has A Relative Well-organized Appearance In Satellite
Imagery.

The System Appears To Be Continuing Westward At About 270/12 To The
South Of A Narrow Mid-level Ridge Over The Western Atlantic. The
Synoptic Reasoning...dynamical Model Tracks...and The Official
Forecast Track Are Not Significantly Changed From The Previous
Advisory. All Of The Models Forecast The Mid- To Upper-level Trough
Over The Eastern U.s. To Gradually Erode The Ridge During The Next
Couple Of Days...allowing Fay To Turn To The Right Into The
Weakness...eventually Leading To A North-northwestward Motion In
3-5 Days. The New Official Track Is Very Close To The Previous One
And To The Model Consensus...but There Are Reliable Models On Both
Sides Of That Track. The Gfdl And Hwrf Tracks Head Up The Western
Portion Of The Florida Peninsula In A Few Days...while The Gfs And
Ukmet Are Farther West Over The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. In The
Shorter Term...the Models Also Do Not Agree On Whether The Center
Of Fay Will Pass Over Or Just South Of Southeastern Cuba Before
Turning Northwestward. These Differing Solutions Again Highlight
The Pitfalls Of Focusing Too Much On The Exact Official Forecast
Track...especially At The Longer Ranges.

Intensity Forecasting Is Always Difficult...but In This Case Is Made
Even More Complicated By The Likely Interactions With Land During
The Next Few Days. Atmospheric And Ocean Conditions Along The
Forecast Track Appear Rather Conducive For Strengthening...so The
More Time Fay Spends Over Water...the Stronger It Is Likely To
Become...and Vice Versa. Dynamical Model Fields Indicate That The
Weak-shear Environment Around Fay Should Persist Throughout Most Of
The Five-day Forecast Period...with Perhaps A Modest But Temporary
Increase In Shear In Roughly 48 Hours. When Fay Is Over
Water...those Waters Will Be Very Warm. Since The Official Track
Implies Ample Amount Of Time Over Water...steady Strengthening Is
Forecast...in A Manner Similar To The Gfdl Model. Fay Could Be
Weaker Than Forecast If Its Stay Over Hispaniola Has Substantially
Disrupted The Circulation...or If It Moves Farther North And East
And Spends More Time Over Cuba. A Track Farther South And
West...however...could Allow Fay To Get Stronger Than What Is
Shown Below.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/0900z 18.7n 72.0w 40 Kt
12hr Vt 16/1800z 19.0n 74.0w 40 Kt
24hr Vt 17/0600z 19.6n 76.4w 50 Kt
36hr Vt 17/1800z 20.5n 78.3w 55 Kt
48hr Vt 18/0600z 21.8n 79.9w 65 Kt...near S Coast Of Cuba
72hr Vt 19/0600z 25.0n 82.0w 70 Kt
96hr Vt 20/0600z 28.5n 83.5w 80 Kt
120hr Vt 21/0600z 32.0n 84.5w 35 Kt...inland

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Right now, this minute, FAY is projected to brush the West Coast of Florida as a tropical storm or minimal hurricane. However, the 1935 labor Day Hurricane took a similar track but exploded into a killer storm with winds about 200 miles per hour (300 kph) when it crossed the hot water of the Gulf Stream.

 

[SeaCat]

Right now, this minute, FAY is projected to brush the West Coast of Florida as a tropical storm or minimal hurricane. However, the 1935 labor Day Hurricane took a similar track but exploded into a killer storm with winds about 200 miles per hour (300 kph) when it crossed the hot water of the Gulf Stream.

Yes Hurricane season is upon us once again. Time for the forecasters to start their hyping of storms and causing panic among those who can't be bothered to look at things for themselves.

I know that I am unfeeling but those who aren't prepared by now, well that is their choice isn't it?

Cat

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

But it has the potential to push the state into a depression if it does substantial damage.

 

[SeaCat]

But it has the potential to push the state into a depression if it does substantial damage.

Just like every other storm that has hit here.

Then again all of those unemployed construction workers would suddenly have jobs again. (If they didn't decide to import workers from other states like they have in the past.)

Cat

 

[jomar]

Well, keep an eye out and be safe.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

http://www.tbo.com/weather/hurricane/worstcase/

TAKE THE TOUR

Great audio-visuals of what a storm will do to Tampa

 

[Weird Harold]

2008 Atlantic basin hurricane season

Linux Geek's hurricane season thread on the gneral board generally has a lot of good information and graphics:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_5day.gif

The forecast from 2300 DST predicts Fay to make hurricane force once she leaves Cuba's north coast.

Graphics update, so just refreshing this thread will keep people up to date on the predicted track and category.

It looks to me like this storm is going to be a good test of Hurricane preparedness 'cause it's going to give everyone a sample as it runs right up the center of the state.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

WH

The local weather guy is scared shitless, he has no idea how strong the storm will be. But based on history the hurricanes usually get huge once they go into the Gulf.

I predict it will be a yawn or worse than Katrina.

 

[BOSTONFICTIONWRITER]

WH

The local weather guy is scared shitless, he has no idea how strong the storm will be. But based on history the hurricanes usually get huge once they go into the Gulf.

I predict it will be a yawn or worse than Katrina.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Republicans are responsible for this storm. They probably sent up a cruise missle or something that pissed off a giant rain cloud that started the whole process.

It wouldn't surprise me, too, that they figured there was money in devastation and death, pretty much like all the wars that they start and don't finish.

 

[Weird Harold]

WH

The local weather guy is scared shitless, he has no idea how strong the storm will be. But based on history the hurricanes usually get huge once they go into the Gulf.

I predict it will be a yawn or worse than Katrina.

Send him a link to that graphic fromWeather underground. For the last two years that Linuxgeek has been posting a hurricane season thread, that particular five day forecast has been the most accurate of all the graphics Linuxgeek digs up.

Just over the last twelve hours, it has changed from three yellow icons to one yellow Icon (sitting just on top of Tampa/St Pete. where it will push as much storm surge as it can into the bay) so Fay is going to probably be a non-event for anyone who is the least bit prepared for a hurricane and it's going to scare the living snot out of anyone who isn't prepared.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

WH

I think theyre all afraid to make any predictions.

As of 5am the storm is pointed at Tampa Bay, and if it comes here we may be fucked in a big way. If it damages many of the bridges, commerce and employment are screwed. If it swamps the 1000s of homes on canals and bayside, the insurance industry is fucked. All the major airports are at sea-level, ditto for the power plants.

Most of America cant care less, but Tampa is large enough that if the damage is bad enough it may push the state into bankruptcy.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

000
Wtnt41 Knhc 180915
Tcdat1
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al062008
500 Am Edt Mon Aug 18 2008

The Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Fixed The Center Of Fay Over
Central Cuba To The Southwest Of The Rotation Aloft Apparent In
Radar Imagery. With This Fix...the Initial Motion Is Now 335/10.
Ascat Data South Of Cuba Prior To Landfall Showed The Surface
Center Becoming Elongated...likely In Response To The Convective
Asymmetry...and Some Additional Distortion Of The Surface
Circulation Is Likely During The Passage Of The Center Over Cuba.
All Track Guidance Suggests That Fay Will Maintain A
North-northwestward Heading For Another 24 Hours Until It Reaches
The Subtropical Ridge Axis. The Official Forecast Is Near The
Right-hand Side Of The Guidance Envelope Early On...but Some
Additional Rightward Adjustments May Be Necessary If The Current
Convective Structure Persists And The Cyclone Remains Vertically
Connected. There Are Large Differences In The Track Guidance Late
In The Forecast Period And The Run To Run Consistency Of The
Guidance Has Been Very Poor. Given That...only A Slight Eastward
Shift Has Been Made Later In The Forecast Period.

The Initial Intensity Remains 45 Kt...with These Winds Occurring
Just Off The North Coast Of Cuba. An Upper-level
Low Over The Extreme Northwestern Caribbean Sea Is Impeding The
Outflow Over The Western Portion Of The Tropical Cyclone...and Some
Westerly Shear Is Expected To Continue For The Next Day Or Two.
Given This Pattern...rapid Strengthening Is Not Expected...but The
Shear Is Not Expected To Be Strong Enough To Prevent Fay From
Reaching Hurricane Strength Before It Reaches The Florida
Peninsula. The Official Forecast Is Close To The Gfdl And Ships
Guidance.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 18/0900z 22.5n 80.9w 45 Kt...inland
12hr Vt 18/1800z 23.5n 81.5w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 19/0600z 25.1n 82.0w 55 Kt
36hr Vt 19/1800z 26.6n 82.3w 65 Kt
48hr Vt 20/0600z 28.2n 82.2w 60 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 21/0600z 31.1n 82.0w 45 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 22/0600z 33.0n 82.0w 25 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 23/0600z 35.5n 82.5w 20 Kt...remnant Low

 

[Weird Harold]

The Official Forecast Is Close To The Gfdl And Ships Guidance.

Another good graphic to help make sense of the last line:

GFDL is the dark blue line running up the center of Florida.

SHIPS is the line of white numbers at the upper left of the map.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_model.gif

 

[GratefulFred]

Florida's real estate market goes on hold when there's a Tropical Storm/Hurricane brewing.

Seller's better just hold back the flood of Buyer's wlling to risk terrible weather to buy one of the few available properties.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

WH

Thanks.

The track continues to wobble from one report to the next. I dont expect we'll know for certain until FAY turns north today or tomorrow.

What I do is collect barometic pressures from locations around the storm, like Key West, Miami, Naples. Right now the lowest BP is at Key West....significantly lower than Naples or Miami. So the storm is closer to Key West. The BP at Marathon Key is higher than Key West, so FAY is closer to KW than Marathon.

 

[Weird Harold]

WH

Thanks.

The track continues to wobble from one report to the next. I dont expect we'll know for certain until FAY turns north today or tomorrow.

What I do is collect barometic pressures from locations around the storm, like Key West, Miami, Naples. Right now the lowest BP is at Key West....significantly lower than Naples or Miami. So the storm is closer to Key West.

The variation in the number and location of the Yellow pinwheels worries me more than the exact track. A mid-level cat 1 just offshore is going to hammer Tampa harder than a minimal cat 1 that runs right over the top of you. The best route for Tampa is that eastern track right up the middle so you get the weak side of the storm and someplace south of you gets the storm tide..

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

WH

Thats my concern too. Offshore, FAY will push water into Tampa Bay.

Looks like FAY is heading for Big Pine Key between Key West and Marathon. The BPs and radar are in agreement.

 

[Weird Harold]

WH

Thats my concern too. Offshore, FAY will push water into Tampa Bay.

Looks like FAY is heading for Big Pine Key between Key West and Marathon. The BPs and radar are in agreement.

The 1700EDT plot shows a landfall near Fort Meyer and no yellow pinwheels at all. Looks like it'll mostly be a non-event.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

WH

I know...except it hasnt turned yet. I check BPs every hour, and the BPs to the east of Fay are stable, while the BPs to the north are falling. Plus, FAY has about 5 hours left to turn North or it hits Tampa head-on or skirts the coast.

I figure FAY will turn late tonight or tomorrow, and come ashore between Tampa and Ft. Myers.

I think we'll know by 11pm.

FAY passed Key West to the west, this surprised me.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Looks like FAY is going to St. Augustine as a hurricane, then maybe loop back into the Gulf.