Evergrande and Hui Ka Yan Effect

[gxnn]

The property tycoon has achieved a technical divorce with his wife who will be able to take care of his money in America and Canada but got himself into jail along with his second son.
For a large number of buyers who have had bank loans for purchasing a promised home that is only with the roof provided or non-existant at all, it is really a pain for years to come.

 

[Chobham]

It's only the beginning of what's to come.

 

[Bray123]

The ex-property tycoon?

 

[Chobham]

Country Garden just missed a $14.5 million bond payment and is scrambling to reorganize. Considering that the residential real estate market is at least 100+% overbuilt their prospects aren't looking good at all. And it gets worse. The Chinese population is in free fall so if the market is overbuilt now that 100+% number is only going to go up over time. If there's 3 dwellings for every individual who are you going to rent to? Sell to? The problem is compounded by the fact that a lot of those properties are tofu dregs.

The government can put every property developer in jail tomorrow and it doesn't fix the problem that the government itself created.

 

[LLCox]

I am glad I am not a China man.

 

[gxnn]

Country Garden just missed a $14.5 million bond payment and is scrambling to reorganize. Considering that the residential real estate market is at least 100+% overbuilt their prospects aren't looking good at all. And it gets worse. The Chinese population is in free fall so if the market is overbuilt now that 100+% number is only going to go up over time. If there's 3 dwellings for every individual who are you going to rent to? Sell to? The problem is compounded by the fact that a lot of those properties are tofu dregs.

The government can put every property developer in jail tomorrow and it doesn't fix the problem that the government itself created.

The number of homes built is more than enough, but they are distributed unevenly across the country. In the most developed areas of the country like Guangdong province, there are still many people who can live on the rents from the many homes they own.
Urbanites in their 20s or 30s will inherit from their parents and grandparents two or three homes, but as you say, when there is not potential rentor or buyer, the property will not only not be used to create more fortune, but also drag them into more troubles.
There are reports that in Beijing alone, college students are hired to do part-time job on weekends, that is, to turn on and off the lights and water taps and electric appliance in the homes they want to lease but still remain unoccupied so as to keep the facilities in working conditions.

I am glad I am not a China man.

Some of the buyers of Evergrande houses are from outside the country, with the intention to make some money.
I am glad I do not have the courage as many others do to apply for a loan from a bank for buying a bigger house or a luxury car. I only live off my small salary.

The legacy of Hui that can still warm the hearts of the local people (sports fans) might be the two trophies his football team under his iron hand snatched from the more powerful Japanese, South Korean, Australian and Saudi Arabian rivals in the Asian Football Confederation Championship, but compared with the big hole made in the national economy, it is negligible. Hui is at a point of no return.

The only question remaining unanswered is how he will be judged or how he will vanish.

 

[Chobham]

The number of homes built is more than enough, but they are distributed unevenly across the country. In the most developed areas of the country like Guangdong province, there are still many people who can live on the rents from the many homes they own.
Urbanites in their 20s or 30s will inherit from their parents and grandparents two or three homes, but as you say, when there is not potential rentor or buyer, the property will not only not be used to create more fortune, but also drag them into more troubles.
There are reports that in Beijing alone, college students are hired to do part-time job on weekends, that is, to turn on and off the lights and water taps and electric appliance in the homes they want to lease but still remain unoccupied so as to keep the facilities in working conditions.

Some of the buyers of Evergrande houses are from outside the country, with the intention to make some money.
I am glad I do not have the courage as many others do to apply for a loan from a bank for buying a bigger house or a luxury car. I only live off my small salary.

You bring up another growing issue, youth unemployment. It's gotten so bad that the government has stopped reporting the figures. The last reported figure was around 24%. Many of those are well educated people.

 

[jhenry922]

You bring up another growing issue, youth unemployment. It's gotten so bad that the government has stopped reporting the figures. The last reported figure was around 24%. Many of those are well educated people.

There's a number of ever Grande properties owned and under construction in West vancouver, a very rich suburb of the Greater Vancouver area in British Columbia canada. If you go look into public records it's a number company but if you do a little digging at all ends up going back to Evergreen day. There's at least 40 of these properties like this totaling some 400 million dollars worth of real estate and some like this one on Erwin Drive have been empty and under construction and deteriorating for part of a decade

 

[Chobham]

As far as I know Canada has fairly strict construction standards so shoddy workmanship probably isn't the reason the property isn't selling.

 

[gxnn]

You bring up another growing issue, youth unemployment. It's gotten so bad that the government has stopped reporting the figures. The last reported figure was around 24%. Many of those are well educated people.

Sad but true.
"Well educated"? Maybe. Most of them can learn a good lesson from outside the classroom but still within the school campus if they are alwasy staying alert, otherwise they are just extending their high school terms in the college.
College students have to lengthen their study time in the campus in the name of learning more and deep knowledge, but the fact is they have nowhere to go to earn a living and the time they can stay longer is used for doing labor jobs for their mentors who are just a contractor to claim and spend the research funding from the government.

 

[Chobham]

Sad but true.
"Well educated"? Maybe. Most of them can learn a good lesson from outside the classroom but still within the school campus if they are alwasy staying alert, otherwise they are just extending their high school terms in the college.
College students have to lengthen their study time in the campus in the name of learning more and deep knowledge, but the fact is they have nowhere to go to earn a living and the time they can stay longer is used for doing labor jobs for their mentors who are just a contractor to claim and spend the research funding from the government.

That goes right to the heart of the matter.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

and some like this one on Erwin Drive have been empty and under construction and deteriorating for part of a decade

As far as I know Canada has fairly strict construction standards so shoddy workmanship probably isn't the reason the property isn't selling.

Learn to read. It's under construction, ie sitting there with no work going on for years on end....

 

[Chobham]

Sad but true.
"Well educated"? Maybe. Most of them can learn a good lesson from outside the classroom but still within the school campus if they are alwasy staying alert, otherwise they are just extending their high school terms in the college.
College students have to lengthen their study time in the campus in the name of learning more and deep knowledge, but the fact is they have nowhere to go to earn a living and the time they can stay longer is used for doing labor jobs for their mentors who are just a contractor to claim and spend the research funding from the government.

By the way, it's going to get worse. Foreign investment and companies are fleeing the country. This is all as a result of government policy. I know the Chinese people to be intelligent and industrious, but a corrupt government corrupts everything it touches and the CCP is corrupt to its core.

 

[Buffalogurl]

The number of homes built is more than enough, but they are distributed unevenly across the country. In the most developed areas of the country like Guangdong province, there are still many people who can live on the rents from the many homes they own.
Urbanites in their 20s or 30s will inherit from their parents and grandparents two or three homes, but as you say, when there is not potential rentor or buyer, the property will not only not be used to create more fortune, but also drag them into more troubles.
There are reports that in Beijing alone, college students are hired to do part-time job on weekends, that is, to turn on and off the lights and water taps and electric appliance in the homes they want to lease but still remain unoccupied so as to keep the facilities in working conditions.

Some of the buyers of Evergrande houses are from outside the country, with the intention to make some money.
I am glad I do not have the courage as many others do to apply for a loan from a bank for buying a bigger house or a luxury car. I only live off my small salary.

The legacy of Hui that can still warm the hearts of the local people (sports fans) might be the two trophies his football team under his iron hand snatched from the more powerful Japanese, South Korean, Australian and Saudi Arabian rivals in the Asian Football Confederation Championship, but compared with the big hole made in the national economy, it is negligible. Hui is at a point of no return.

The only question remaining unanswered is how he will be judged or how he will vanish.

Gxnn, in your personal opinion would you speculate, could you speculate a time frame about the collapse of the Chinese economy. I know this is a somewhat of a "loaded question" but I'd like to here your thoughts on it anyway.....

 

[gxnn]

By the way, it's going to get worse. Foreign investment and companies are fleeing the country. This is all as a result of government policy. I know the Chinese people to be intelligent and industrious, but a corrupt government corrupts everything it touches and the CCP is corrupt to its core.

Maybe you are right, maybe you are wrong. History is not written by one person. It is still too early to make any judgment. Life is full of surprises, as the mother of Forrest Gumpt says.

Gxnn, in your personal opinion would you speculate, could you speculate a time frame about the collapse of the Chinese economy. I know this is a somewhat of a "loaded question" but I'd like to here your thoughts on it anyway.....

I do not really know what "speculate" here means, or is it about making money from investment on imaginary matters? I haven't done things like that, except a two-yuan lottery ticket I bought in a small shop, earning me a five-yuan worth bonus for only one time. Looking back on history, a bad time like the decade-long Cultural Revolution still saw that Chinese people could survive or sustain up to the later stage where the Reform and Opening Up to the outside world was carried out nationwide, we should not have reason to lose our confidence in the national economy. Or just forget the bull shit I said, LOL. ...

 

[Chobham]

The Chinese people have survived many adversities. Governments come and go.