Roxanne Appleby
Masterpiece
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2005
- Posts
- 11,231
California congressman Dan Lungren asks in an op-ed, "What would happen if the United States were to offer a $1-billion prize for the first American automaker to sell 60,000 midsized sedans that could travel 100 miles on one gallon of gasoline? It wouldn't be a panacea for our energy problems, but it would stimulate the development of viable technologies to reduce oil consumption while we develop alternatives to petroleum. Competition for a prestigious prize is far more likely to get results than government programs aimed at anticipating and funding 'winners.' Although occasionally effective . . . all too often such subsidies are given to the politically influential, not the meritorious. But prize money is paid out only when the goal is achieved."
I believe that Lungren has a poor understanding of both markets and technology. Current internal combustion engines extract just shy of 40 percent of the chemical energy that exists in a gallon of gas. Marginal improvements can be expected in the future, but the laws of thermodynamics prohibit reaching 100 percent.
That said, it is possible today to build 100 mpg car. It would be very small and aerodynamic, weigh under 1,000 lbs, and be capable of going 70 mph or so running flat out. It would get blown around in strong winds, and would not really be safe sharing the road with today's big trucks.
Given these facts, it is silly to discuss a $1 billion prize. We could have these cars right now with no prize. We could adopt a system that relies more on rail and less on trucks for long distance freight, so those cars could use the roads safely. If gas was $6 or $10 a gallon and there was no alternatives we probably would have such a system. It's actually kind of an "elegant," aesthetically satisfying scenario. But that is just my opinion, not some "metaphysical constant."
For example, it might make more a lot more sense to replace gas stations with "battery-change stations," where electric cars that look just like current cars (instead of 100 mpg cars) would pull in every 150 miles or so, pull out one battery, leave it for recharging and insertion later into another car, and insert a newly recharged battery someone else had dropped off earlier. This could all happen automatically – you back up the changer-thingie and it does all the work. The electricity would come from abundant, increasingly efficient and safe nuclear plants, or possibly some other centralized source capable of providing the magnitudes of energy required by an industrial civilization.
This is a plausible future model that requires no technological leap, just a different infrastructure. There may be others. If the future ends up looking anything like this, people will look back and smile at the quaintly misguided congressman who offered $1 billion of the taxpayers' money chasing a chimera.
I believe that Lungren has a poor understanding of both markets and technology. Current internal combustion engines extract just shy of 40 percent of the chemical energy that exists in a gallon of gas. Marginal improvements can be expected in the future, but the laws of thermodynamics prohibit reaching 100 percent.
That said, it is possible today to build 100 mpg car. It would be very small and aerodynamic, weigh under 1,000 lbs, and be capable of going 70 mph or so running flat out. It would get blown around in strong winds, and would not really be safe sharing the road with today's big trucks.
Given these facts, it is silly to discuss a $1 billion prize. We could have these cars right now with no prize. We could adopt a system that relies more on rail and less on trucks for long distance freight, so those cars could use the roads safely. If gas was $6 or $10 a gallon and there was no alternatives we probably would have such a system. It's actually kind of an "elegant," aesthetically satisfying scenario. But that is just my opinion, not some "metaphysical constant."
For example, it might make more a lot more sense to replace gas stations with "battery-change stations," where electric cars that look just like current cars (instead of 100 mpg cars) would pull in every 150 miles or so, pull out one battery, leave it for recharging and insertion later into another car, and insert a newly recharged battery someone else had dropped off earlier. This could all happen automatically – you back up the changer-thingie and it does all the work. The electricity would come from abundant, increasingly efficient and safe nuclear plants, or possibly some other centralized source capable of providing the magnitudes of energy required by an industrial civilization.
This is a plausible future model that requires no technological leap, just a different infrastructure. There may be others. If the future ends up looking anything like this, people will look back and smile at the quaintly misguided congressman who offered $1 billion of the taxpayers' money chasing a chimera.
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