closed Thread

[ll74]

Good question.
.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/26/opin...anded-in-gaza-israel-okul-griffith/index.html

Obviously both the Secretary of State and the President visited in person to pressure Netanyahu to allow extraction. Without a corridor for extraction, not much we can do

From the article:

Meanwhile, the White House said this week that it’s considering contingency plans to evacuate Americans from the Middle East. White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the US is “thinking through a broad range of contingencies and possibilities, and certainly evacuations are one of those things. We’re not at the point of execution right now.”


Kirby added that “obviously a prime focus for us is the several hundred Americans that we know are there.”

 

[Dribble]

Obviously both the Secretary of State and the President visited in person to pressure Netanyahu to allow extraction. Without a corridor for extraction, not much we can do

From the article:

"Not much we can do". How far the mighty has fallen. Must make you proud that we are pawns.

Perfect example of why Biden is a shitty leader

 

[Dribble]

"Not much we can do". How far the mighty has fallen. Must make you proud that we are pawns.

Perfect example of why Biden is a shitty leader

Why dribble...what would you do?

Simple. Know those "Iron Dome" missiles we supply? No more freebies. You can get 10 for every American brought safely across. They would magically be saved tomorrow

 

[ll74]

It speaks directly to our true ability to influence the Hamas/Israeli war militarily.

Your histrionics doesn't speak to that.

Our military is fully capable.

 

[Dribble]

See...some get it.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/27/us/teaching-kids-israel-hamas-war-cec/index.html

Why so many here don't is quite interesting don't you think?

There is no "Team" in this Joe.

 

[ll74]

See...some get it.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/27/us/teaching-kids-israel-hamas-war-cec/index.html

Why so many here don't is quite interesting don't you think?

There is no "Team" in this Joe.

The answer should always be - both Israelis and Palestinians deserve to live in safety and peace. Anything that threatens that is the enemy.

 

[Rightguide]

Our military is fully capable.

The above illustrates your ignorance on the subject.

 

[ll74]

The above illustrates your ignorance on the subject.

You're seriously delusional.

 

[ll74]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717583228830146865

 

[ll74]

I think the US needs to reconsider our relationship with Qatar. Between the Talban and Hamas, Qatar consistently provides support to both and allows their leadership to reside comfortably in the country.

Qatar becomes a key intermediary in Israel-Hamas war as fate of hostages hangs in the balance​

 

[Dribble]

Maybe one should ask why?

Weird...US officials are saying they have an agreement to get many of the hostages free. Israel says they don't bargain. Know that was agreed to? Water. Fuel for hospitals. Medical supplies. Maybe we should rethink our relationship with Israel?

 

[ll74]

Ground invasion of Gaza started earlier today. They are already expanding it.

Israel says it's 'expanding' ground activities in Gaza as internet blackout takes hold​

 

[Chobham]

Ground invasion of Gaza started earlier today. They are already expanding it.

Israel says it's 'expanding' ground activities in Gaza as internet blackout takes hold​

It gets even more ugly now.

 

[rgraham666]

"Not much we can do". How far the mighty has fallen. Must make you proud that we are pawns.

Perfect example of why Biden is a shitty leader

You forgot the 'Hail Victory!' at the end of your statement.

 

[RobDownSouth]

It gets even more ugly now.

And you're enjoy every fucking second of the carnage.
You live for this sort of stuff.

 

[Chobham]

So... I got a question for all you Israel experts.

Apparently Israel's vaunted Intelligence network shit the bed in spectacular fashion by failing to notice Hamas getting ready to play. So the question is:

Does this failure represent the quality of intel we get from our "greatest ally" who never shows up to fight... or did they allow the attack as a pretext to try to drive the Palis out of Gaza?

How about 'neither?'

The Israelis have been aware of the various Hamas 'practice' sessions for years but their policy has been to not initiate hostilities. So they watched the games, business as usual. What changed was the entrance of a state operator, Iran.

Iran has honed a high level of operational security, especially after the Trump regime took out the leader of the Revolutionary Guard. That OpSec was applied in this operation by Hamas. The blinding of Israel's border security was almost flawless, as was the infiltration. After those initial phases the operation fell into chaos. And that too was more or less part of the plan. Iran knew that Israel was going to react and the stronger the reaction the better.

Politically it was a good move on Iran's part. They stymied the growing Saudi/Israeli relationship. Also, judging by various world reactions and the calls for a 'cease fire' they figured that the Israelis would cave and go back to the status quo and in that calculation they missed a step. I don't think they considered that the Israeli's would dedicate themselves to the total annihilation of Hamas. And even here they garner some political capital, in the short term. And that is why the Israeli's are going to have to move fast and hard in the Gaza. They know that Iran is going to have to commit their other proxy, Hezbollah, to take pressure off Hamas. Israel is going to have to move their forces to the North to counter that and they have no desire to leave a functional Hamas on their Southern border.

The wild cards are the US carrier groups. Will they be used or are they just there for show? Only time will answer that question. Primarily they are there to prevent Israel from striking Iran, and they can if they so choose. If Iran chooses to escalate and the US does not react, then Israel will.

I think that Israeli policy is going to change from 'we will not strike first' to 'we're going to kill them as soon as we see them.' And that is a profound change in policy. And that policy change is going to be driven, in a great extent, as to how we, the US, deal with the situation.

 

[RobDownSouth]

So... I got a question for all you Israel experts.

Apparently Israel's vaunted Intelligence network shit the bed in spectacular fashion by failing to notice Hamas getting ready to play. So the question is:

Does this failure represent the quality of intel we get from our "greatest ally" who never shows up to fight... or did they allow the attack as a pretext to try to drive the Palis out of Gaza?

Lots of opinions being bandied about. Here's what I cobbled together.

• Israel thought they could get away with moving battalions of IDF forces from Gaza border to West Bank, because the West Bank looked like a trouble spot. They left behind a skeleton force all summer at Gaza. They thought Hamas wouldn't notice.
• Hamas noticed. Hamas immediately began sending their fighting forces to the Gaza border hoping to exploit Israeli weakness.
• The skeleton Israeli battalion sent "Major buildup of Hamas forces!" alerts week after week to the Mossad.
• Mossad evidently did NOT notify higher ups in IDF command structure, some people saying as a result of political maneuvering. Mossad absolutely "shit the bed"
• Hamas made a concerted rocket attack/hostage snatch operation into western Israel. Skeleton battalion is overwhelmed. Much much higher civilian casualty rate than if standard troops had been deployed.
• Israel is understandably pissed off and also embarrassed worldwide. Their fabled Mossad has failed. Announce plans for ground invasion of Gaza.
• Biden administration initially cheers Israeli efforts, thinking precise surgical invasion will embarrass Iran and send a message to Hezbollah.
• Israel shares invasion plan with US Military and civilian leadership. Israeli invasion plan is an absolute clusterfuck. "Invade and hope for the best". US military warns Biden admin there is no way this will NOT be a quagmire.
• "Friendly" allies of the US in the Middle East (Qatar, UAE, Saudis) ask US what is going on, they all hoped Iran would get a quick spanking and then business-as-usual.
• "Friendlies" quickly find out about proposed quagmire and pressure the US to pressure Israel for a measured response. They all fear that an extended quagmire will stop windfall oil profits Middle East is currently getting from Russia-Ukraine war limiting Russian exports. This might even cause a *gasp* recession in the Middle East.
• US puts political pressure on Israel for three days, Israel invades Gaza.
• We'll see shortly if the predicted quagmire comes to pass.

 

[Lazaran]

Lots of opinions being bandied about. Here's what I cobbled together.

• Israel thought they could get away with moving battalions of IDF forces from Gaza border to West Bank, because the West Bank looked like a trouble spot. They left behind a skeleton force all summer at Gaza. They thought Hamas wouldn't notice.
• Hamas noticed. Hamas immediately began sending their fighting forces to the Gaza border hoping to exploit Israeli weakness.
• The skeleton Israeli battalion sent "Major buildup of Hamas forces!" alerts week after week to the Mossad.
• Mossad evidently did NOT notify higher ups in IDF command structure, some people saying as a result of political maneuvering. Mossad absolutely "shit the bed"
• Hamas made a concerted rocket attack/hostage snatch operation into western Israel. Skeleton battalion is overwhelmed. Much much higher civilian casualty rate than if standard troops had been deployed.
• Israel is understandably pissed off and also embarrassed worldwide. Their fabled Mossad has failed. Announce plans for ground invasion of Gaza.
• Biden administration initially cheers Israeli efforts, thinking precise surgical invasion will embarrass Iran and send a message to Hezbollah.
• Israel shares invasion plan with US Military and civilian leadership. Israeli invasion plan is an absolute clusterfuck. "Invade and hope for the best". US military warns Biden admin there is no way this will NOT be a quagmire.
• "Friendly" allies of the US in the Middle East (Qatar, UAE, Saudis) ask US what is going on, they all hoped Iran would get a quick spanking and then business-as-usual.
• "Friendlies" quickly find out about proposed quagmire and pressure the US to pressure Israel for a measured response. They all fear that an extended quagmire will stop windfall oil profits Middle East is currently getting from Russia-Ukraine war limiting Russian exports. This might even cause a *gasp* recession in the Middle East.
• US puts political pressure on Israel for three days, Israel invades Gaza.
• We'll see shortly if the predicted quagmire comes to pass.

The only things you left out were:

• The Israeli’s apparently false assumption that Hamas wouldn’t go "Full ISIS".

• The likely interconnectedness of the Ukraine war and the timing of Hamas’ barbaric attack. - I suspect Russia put pressure on Iran to put pressure on Hamas to plan and conduct that scale / type of attack at that particular moment in time. (China may also have provided some input.) - The interruption of a U.S. brokered Saudi- Israeli normalization agreement was obviously to the advantage of Russia, Iran, and China as well

The timing and the magnitude of the attack was everything imho.

And there is also this:

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90841#:~:text=While allegations that Russia transferred,consistent with a historical pattern

From the article:

“While allegations that Russia transferred weapons to Hamas remain unproven, Russia has at the very least facilitated material support for the group: on the eve of the attacks, Hamas receivedmillions of dollars through a Moscow-based crypto exchange.

The rapprochement with Hamas is consistent with a historical pattern. During the Cold War, Moscow armed and otherwise supported Palestinian militants, including those engaged in terrorism, continuing to do so even at the height of détente.”



All that ^ is why the U.S. must not abandon Ukraine to focus on Israel. - Those battles are more connected than most realize.

*nods*

 

[JoePepsiCo]

It reads like late 1930s America here and the praise for the good, strong leadership of men like Hitler and Mussolini, and then the cherry-on-the-pie of the NYT's praise of the efficacies and glory of the Soviet Union.

The defense of terrorists is shocking, but predictable. If the Nations start kidnapping and bombing, are you white guys going to give Manhattan back?

The quaint notion that if it weren't for Israel, the Islamic world would not be using 12th century practices to spread the word of the prophet would be comedic if it weren't so tragic. Those who gravitate towards totalitarianism* tend to recognize birds of a feather and I see a murder of crows gathered here...

Cui bono?



* Fueled by the conceit that they will be oppressor, not the oppressed when their dreams are realized and everyone is getting their minds right, er, uh, Left.

 

[ll74]

So... I got a question for all you Israel experts.

Apparently Israel's vaunted Intelligence network shit the bed in spectacular fashion by failing to notice Hamas getting ready to play. So the question is:

Does this failure represent the quality of intel we get from our "greatest ally" who never shows up to fight... or did they allow the attack as a pretext to try to drive the Palis out of Gaza?

I don't believe it was on purpose.

 

[Chobham]

There really are no end of fairytale excuses to cover for "our greatest ally."

I confess, I didn't bother to read past, "been aware of the various Hamas..." It's a Saturday morning and it's just too early for so much bullshit.

You gotta love it when pro-terrorists self-identify.

 

[RobDownSouth]

It reads like late 1930s America here and the praise for the good, strong leadership of men like Hitler and Mussolini, and then the cherry-on-the-pie of the NYT's praise of the efficacies and glory of the Soviet Union. The defense of terrorists is shocking, but predictable. If the Nations start kidnapping and bombing, are you white guys going to give Manhattan back? The quaint notion that if it weren't for Israel, the Islamic world would not be using 12th century practices to spread the word of the prophet would be comedic if it weren't so tragic. Those who gravitate towards totalitarianism* tend to recognize birds of a feather and I see a murder of crows gathered here... Cui bono?
* Fueled by the conceit that they will be oppressor, not the oppressed when their dreams are realized and everyone is getting their minds right, er, uh, Left.

True to form, AJ never passes up a good war to take a shot at teh librulz and teh Muslims.

 

[ll74]

See? This is what makes you a dupe for your leaders. They sold you the idea that the only two possibilities are "Support Israel" or "Support Terrorists," and you bought it.

Why is it so impossible to imagine supporting neither? Why is it so hard to understand that unless you are stroking a check or pulling a trigger your "support" is meaningless anyway?

I mock the idea that Israel is our "greatest ally" because there's no real evidence to support the claim. We've been in many wars and they have never once fought shoulder to shoulder with us. They like our money. They love for us to kill their enemies. They are willing to fight to the last American to defend themselves.

What do we get in return? Supposedly we get "intel" which is conveniently "top secret." Do we need it? Only if we're interested in killing more of their enemies for them. Is it any good? The events of October 7th cast strong doubt. I'd say any other country on earth would be willing to be our "greatest ally" on those terms.

No, the truth is that neither side is any good. Siding with any desert tribe on the other side of the world is a waste of our resources. We should let them fight it out... and keep our blood and treasure for things that serve our own interests.

Both sideism is dumb.

As is isolationism

 

[colddiesel]

This thread had sunk to 31st position in the list of what the members of this Board think is important. My take. Israel will win the fighting - eventually, but it will mean nothing. Neither they, nor their enemies have the slightest interest in any lasting peace, because the clear objective of both is to evict their enemies. Neither wants peace so we should chill out, 20 to 30 thousand dead per annum for 70 years is clearly tolerable for all political people. Hamas , Israel, Fatah, Hezbollah, Syria, Iran are all utterly corrupt financially and politically.

But it makes for spectacular pictures on the evening news.

 

[Rightguide]

Recall my post at #1366:

"Nobody is talking about the 800-lb gorilla in the room, Turkey. They are the military powerhouse in the Middle East. Turkey is not friendly with Israel and they are only a paper partner in Nato. There are massive demonstrations in Turkey to get involved against the Israelis. Turkey does have an ongoing relationship with Hamas. In addition, we see Pakistan telling Turkey that if they join the fight against Israel they will supply Turkey with nuclear weapons."

Erdogan threatens to declare war on Israel and send military to Gaza in chilling warning​

The Turkish president suggested in a speech at a pro-Palestine rally this afternoon that Turkey can "come at any night unexpectedly".​

By LIAM DOYLE
20:08, Sat, Oct 28, 2023 | UPDATED: 01:42, Sun, Oct 29, 2023

Turkey's president appears to have threatened to intervene in Gaza in an impassioned speech at a pro-Palestine rally this evening.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a speech to a rally this afternoon in which he told attendees Israel was responsible for war crimes, and framed Hamas as "freedom fighters".

In comments that have prompted Israeli outcry, and led the country to withdraw its diplomatic presence, president Erdogan suggested assaults on Gaza constituted a "massacre".

In the same speech, he reportedly said that Turkey can "come at any night unexpectedly” to ecstatic reception from hundreds of thousands of attendees.

More here: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1829092/Erdogan-Turkey-Israel-war-Gaza

This is the nightmare scenario for Israel and for the US I was contemplating. The Turks have the biggest army in the Middle East and the biggest Navy, We have nuclear weapons stored on our bases in Turkey and we have military personnel stationed in Turkey both of which could be a risk if Turkey decides to join a region-wide Islamic war against Israel. It wouldn't take more than a month for Turkey to put almost a million troops on the Golan Heights and call up even more in reserve. Just sayin. The real danger here is that Israel could be wiped off the map in such a scenario. This is why Israel cannot have a policy of collective punishment in Gaza.