Ceasefire

[Friedrich N]

How long do you think the ceasefire between Israel and Hezzbolah will hold? Further, who do you think will break it, if it is to be broken.

 

[oggbashan]

My views:

I can't see Hezbollah allowing itself to be disarmed even with a joint UN and Lebanese army force in place.

Hezbollah IS the authority in Southern Lebanon and is supported by and integrated into the local community. It is almost impossible to say that this person is a Hezbollah fighter and that one is not.

Hezbollah have been successful in concealing their rockets from the Israeli armed forces. They would be equally successful in concealing them from a peacekeeping force.

Unless Hezbollah is disarmed, Israel will still feel under threat from rocket attacks. If Hezbollah is NOT disarmed, the UN peacekeeping force cannot be effective.

Any attempt to disarm Hezbollah by force will end the ceasefire.

Og

 

[Liar]

Further, who do you think will break it, if it is to be broken.

Ten bux that both sides will claim it was the other side that broke it.

 

[cantdog]

The government and the Israelis say the private militias in Lebanon, like Hizb'Allah, are Illegal.

The US government is hiring private mercenary groups in record numbers, in Iraq, and also to do border work on the Mexican frontier. Nothing illegal about that shit, right?

It's hypocrisy. The cease fire is incredibly fragile. Hizb'Allah has defeated Israel, and if Israel or the US uses the cease fire to turn the tables, they will only manage to kill the cease fire.

The facts are that the US is defeated in Iraq, the Israelis defeated in Lebanon.

 

[R. Richard]

The US government is hiring private mercenary groups in record numbers, in Iraq, and also to do border work on the Mexican frontier. Nothing illegal about that shit, right?

Cantdog:
I used to be in the hired soldier business and would like to be again. The pay is very good and the hiree has the power of a sovereign government behind him. [I can supply my own team and I know written international law.]

If you would please tell me to which US Government agency and where to apply for employment as a hired soldier [the term mercenary is considered to be something of a pejorative,] I would be most appreciative.

If you PM me, I will publish the PM. There may be other Litizens who are interested. TIA!

 

[Zeb_Carter]

The US government is hiring private mercenary groups in record numbers, in Iraq, and also to do border work on the Mexican frontier. Nothing illegal about that shit, right?

Let me know too! I would love to do private Merc shit for the U.S.

 

[Pure]

Employment for RRichard and Zeb

Some Private Military Companies in Iraq (total personnel in Iraq from PMCs is at least 20,000)

There is a nice list with links at

http://www.privateforces.com/pmclist.html

Here are some of the more notable ones:


http://www.blackwaterusa.com/

Blackwater USA is the most comprehensive professional military, law enforcement, security, peacekeeping, and stability operations company in the world.
We have established a global presence and provide training and operational solutions for the 21st century in support of security and peace, and freedom and democracy everywhere.
We customize and execute solutions for our clients to help keep them at the level of readiness required to meet today's military, law enforcement, peacekeeping, and stability operations challenges. We continually prove to be faster, better, cheaper, and more efficient and effective than conventionally managed forces.
Our customers include local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies, the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and most other federal agencies, multi-national corporations, non-governmental organizations, and friendly nations from around the world.
Whether you require training, operational, or policy solutions, Blackwater can help you develop the right program for you to ensure success.
---------
http://www.diligencemiddleeast.com/

DME is a security and risk assessment company specializing in the Middle East region. We combine decades of experience in international law enforcement, British, U.S., and Russian intelligence, investigative journalism, finance, the law and military Special Forces. Whether safeguarding individuals to protecting physical operations, our team is uniquely qualified to provide mission critical security and risk assessment throughout the Middle East.

====
http://www.mpri.com/index.html

[military professional resources inc]

Since 1987, MPRI, an L-3 Communications company, has provided national security, defense, and law enforcement customers within the US and abroad with professional services, specialized products, and integrated solutions for education, training, and operations. MPRI's products include maritime, driving, and marksmanship simulations and a multi-hazard emergency and routine operations management system. Our programs are staffed with highly skilled men and women whose professionalism, ethics, integrity, and commitment to quality ensure mission accomplishment. Competent, dedicated, experienced, and versatile, MPRI is respected around the globe for delivering quality results under often dangerous and arduous conditions.

Products and Services

MPRI serves international security, military, and law enforcement customers. We enable nation-building and reform, and provide expertise in civil/military functions within the framework of emerging democracies. MPRI pioneers new ways to serve our customers worldwide with products and services in defense, military training and education, homeland security, law enforcement, logistics, strategic planning, recruitment, and more. MPRI’s employees are strategists, planners, trainers, educators, logisticians, foreign area specialists, former police, and highly skilled and experienced foreign service officers. MPRI builds a synergy for customers by integrating the right mix of tools, services, and personnel to create the best customer solution.

Security Sector Reform Programs and Integrated International Development Programs – Serve international security, military, and law enforcement customers with programs that promote democratic government, institution building and security sector reform, and provide expertise in crucial civil/military functions within newly created democracies.

International Defense Training and Capacity Building – MPRI provides international defense and military customers with training and education programs relating to force modernization and development, exercises, military stabilization, live-fire training simulations and exercises, maritime and border security, and more.

U.S. Defense Education, Training, and Doctrine Development – MPRI provides U.S. military, government, and law enforcement agencies support in strategic planning, doctrine development, and training and education.

Logistics Planning and Operations and Resource Management – MPRI supports US and international clients in improving logistical operations by providing experienced strategic planners, instructors, subject matter experts and technical experts.

Staff Augmentation – MPRI provides high quality staff support to defense, government and civilian customers.







=====

http://www.meyerglobalforce.com/training.html

Meyer Global Security, Inc. is fully accredited by the State of Texas as a Security Officer Academy and Personal Protection Officer School (level 3 & 4). We are also certified by the State of Texas for continuing education for security officers, private investigators, and personal protection officers. We offer additional training that fits the requirements for police officer (TECLOSE) continuing education in accordance with state law. We have the capability of conducting mobile training throughout the United States and foreign countries.

We provide training for Security/Personal Protection Officers, VIP/Dignitary Protection, SWAT, Close Quarter Combat, Tactical Firearms, Protective Driving, Bus Interdiction, Aircraft Interdiction, Defensive Tactics, Workplace Violence, Terrorism and Waterborne Operations. These courses are offered at various facilities depending on the course or may be brought to a clients facilities.

Operating as a Private Military Company we provide complete security & protection services for government organizations and private sector companies including executive protection, bodyguards, security guards, convoy escorts and all risk management components.

We have transportation available including: 4X4 SUV's, sedans, armored and rapid response vehicles as well as aircraft support.

Iraq Helicopters - MGSI has helicopters available for passenger transportation, courier/cargo transport, aerial reconnaissance, convoy escort, medical evacuation, night flying operations and other specialized services.


Meyer Global Security, Inc. Special Operations Group will provide solutions that allow you to earn the profits you deserve and provide safety and security for your projects and personnel. Our Special Operations Group consists of specially trained ex-military personnel from US Army Special Forces, Rangers, Intelligence Operators, Marine Recon, Navy and Coast Guard Waterborne Operators. The Special Operations Group is available worldwide to address any needs your company may have including Armed Marine Patrol Vessels.



United States

Mexico

Panama, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica

Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Argentina, Chile

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico

Australia

Philippines

England

Spain

Middle East ( 17 countries )

Iraq

 

[oggbashan]

Private militias and mercenaries hired by a government are very different.

Hezbollah's declared aim is the destruction of Israel. Militias in Africa are often solely concerned with generating wealth and power for their leaders at the expense of the general population. Militias in Afghanistan protect the opium trade without which many people would starve. There is no other product that can be grown or made in Afghanistan that could support the people. IF the authorities in Afghanistan would allow opium production for medical use, many of the countries problems would be solveable. There is a world-wide shortage of medical opiates.

In Iraq the militias are part defensive, part offensive because each religious group is afraid of domination by the other. Until they can agree to share power they prefer to keep their weapons to retaliate for acts by the other side (Who starts what becomes irrelevant).

Hezbollah cannot afford to disarm because it would lose its credibility.

Og

 

[R. Richard]

Some Private Military Companies in Iraq (total personnel in Iraq from PMCs is at least 20,000)

The people you refer to are rent a cops. In some cases they are very highly trained and highly skilled rent a cops, but they are still rent a cops. They provide security for people the US military doesn't want to or can't provide security for. They are not hired soldiers/mercenaries.

Let me explain the differences very briefly. If my team captures a suspected terrorist in Iraq, said terrorist suspect needs to be questioned. My team can't do this. Not only do my people not speak/read Arabic, some of my people can't read or write 'Merican. Do we call up an expensive, possibly in competent translator from a rear area or trasport the prisoner to a rear area? NO! We turn Sunni prisoners over to local Shia militias. We turn Shia prisoners over to local Sunni militias. The next morning we have detailed, very accurate intelligence obtained by the local militias. [If the human rights people have problems with my operation, they can send in observers with the prisoners I furnish to the local militias, no problemo!] I pay the local militias for good, accurate information that is not shared with anyone else. If a local militia attempt to betray me, I take action and deal with the new militia that replaces the old militia.

When I get good military intelligence, I ACT on said intelligence! I go in and take what action is necessary. If I obtain more prisoners [this last is a weak point for my teams,] I again turn them over to appropriate militias. I obtain more military intelligence and I again act on the new intelligence. [I DON'T clear my actions with ANYONE! I am not a politician and I am not interested in the political ramifications of my actions. I am a hired soldier.]

In the areas where I operate, you will not find insurgents, at least not for very long. I am a hired soldier.

I do follow the rules of warefare. However, my people don't mess with educational things like foreign language. If you want to talk to my people, you do so in 'Merican! You don't want to talk to my people in 'Merican, we can handle that.

[I don't claim to know everything about military actions. I have worked with ODAs and found then sruprisingly effective. I have never figured out how they do what they do, but it does work. On the other hand, my people can operate in sea, air and land. We can live off the land. We can take and hold territory against forces many times the numbers of my teams. We don't get, nor do we seek help from civilians. If said civilians attempt to hide armed insurgents, they are no longer civilians, but military support staff. I do operate under military law. I have held so many military field courts that I can't count the number. Each defendant gets the best qualified lawyer from among my team.]

 

[Boxlicker101]

The government and the Israelis say the private militias in Lebanon, like Hizb'Allah, are Illegal.

The US government is hiring private mercenary groups in record numbers, in Iraq, and also to do border work on the Mexican frontier. Nothing illegal about that shit, right?

It's hypocrisy. The cease fire is incredibly fragile. Hizb'Allah has defeated Israel, and if Israel or the US uses the cease fire to turn the tables, they will only manage to kill the cease fire.

The facts are that the US is defeated in Iraq, the Israelis defeated in Lebanon.

I think there is no doubt that the big loser is the people of Lebanon who see their nation in ruins as a result of Hezbollah hiding among the civilian population, in vioilation of every rule of warfare or even common decency. Beyond that, it remains to be seen.

If Hez. is disarmed and disbanded, Israel will have won. If not, Hez. will have won, at least this round. It is interesting that, almost before the ink was dry, the Lebanese government announced tyhey will not be the ones to disarm Hez. This was a violation already of the agreement, at least as I understand it. The UN forces are actually serious soldiers from major countries (at least some of them) and, if they take their mandate seriously and do the job, Hez. will no longer be a threat to Israel.

On the other hand, if Hez. is left alone and allowed to re-establish hegemony over southern Lebanon and resume attacks on Israel, the Israelis may get really pissed off. "No more Mr. Nice Guy" they will say, and invade in force, totally destroying Hez. and maybe the Leb. soldiers and UN forces in the process. Nobody, except Iran wants that to happen. If the UN and Leb. live up to their agreement, it won't happen. If they ignore their responsibilities, it will.

 

[Zeb_Carter]

Some Private Military Companies in Iraq (total personnel in Iraq from PMCs is at least 20,000)

So which of those listed are paid directly by the U.S. Government?

Which company provides soldiers to accompany Marines on patrol?

It would appear from what I read they are hired by private companies to protect executives or train their security personnel. I don't think the U.S. military uses these "rent a cops" to do battle with insergents in Iraq or to preform any military missions.

 

[Zeb_Carter]

If you read the headline in The New York Times today you'll see that Lebanon has sent its army to patrol in the south.

But, Lebanon has made it clear that it will do nothing to disarm Hezbollah. Never mind that the cease fire agreement demands that Hezbollah be disarmed, Lebanon says it isn't going to happen. Hezbollah also says that they absolutely will not disarm.

So that "disarmament" part of the cease agreement is already garbage.

 

[oggbashan]

...

But, Lebanon has made it clear that it will do nothing to disarm Hezbollah. Never mind that the cease fire agreement demands that Hezbollah be disarmed, Lebanon says it isn't going to happen. Hezbollah also says that they absolutely will not disarm.

So that "disarmament" part of the cease agreement is already garbage.

The Lebanese government and Army do not have the capacity to disarm Hezbollah, who are effectively THE government in Southern Lebanon and have ministers in the main Lebanese government. To attempt it would be likely to cause civil war that the government might not win (nor might Hezbollah so it could be a perpetual shoot-out).

Hezbollah cannot afford to disarm while Israeli troops are still in Lebanon. If there were to be free and fair democratic elections in Southern Lebanon, Hezbollah would win a sizeable mandate because they are supported by the people.

BUT Hezbollah is committed to the total destruction of Israel. While they have that commitment and the capacity to attack Israel, there can be no lasting peace.

If Hezbollah does not agree to disarm, only overwhelming external force could make them. No UN force is likely to be given that mandate. Given Hezbollah's tactics of concealing themselves among the civilian population, the numbers of 'innocents' killed would be horrific. What government would continue to fight Hezbollah if children's bodies were shown in every news bulletin?

Hezbollah will only disarm if their backers tell them that they must. That means that Iran and Syria have to be part of the deal to make peace. How likely is that?

Og

 

[Pure]

Meyer Global Security, Inc. Special Operations Group will provide solutions that allow you to earn the profits you deserve and provide safety and security for your projects and personnel. Our Special Operations Group consists of specially trained ex-military personnel from US Army Special Forces, Rangers, Intelligence Operators, Marine Recon, Navy and Coast Guard Waterborne Operators.

RR says,
The people you refer to are rent a cops. In some cases they are very highly trained and highly skilled rent a cops, but they are still rent a cops. They provide security for people the US military doesn't want to or can't provide security for. They are not hired soldiers/mercenaries.

I'm not sure why you call them cops; some Meyers folks are former soldiers. You say they are not "hired soldiers." Well, they are hired, so you think they're not 'soldiering'.

It seems to me that guarding convoys against 'insurgents' is soldiering. The enemy will try to kill you and/or blow up the convoy; you will use deadly means to stop him. Some of the convoys are involved in military operations, and would normally be guarded by army personnel, soldiers, as in WWII.

Police are concerned with enforcing a country's (state's or city's) laws. They are after the small segment 1% of society who are criminals. Meyer's people are not enforcing Iraq law, they are supporting US military actions against 'insurgents' numbering in the tens of thousands. Some are supporting rebuilding efforts. Generally speaking when lots of armed US personnel are present, they are not simply advisors or assistants to a nation's police.

It is entirely unclear, in your account of grabbing suspected terrorists whether you claim to be a rentacop, a hired soldier, or something else. You basically speak of indirectly extracting intelligence that you act on, but your unit's purpose, and the larger strategic goals are never stated. It seems you believe that situations like Iraq and Lebanon are 'fixed' by killing enough bad guys.

 

[Pure]

i don't see hezbollah disarming, at this point. so the ceasefire can't last.

who would 'disarm' hezbollah? Lebanese soldiers? Gimme a break.

would they lay down and give up their arms if their alleged Iranian bosses tell them to? i don't think so. but assuming so, why would these 'bosses' tell them to do that?

when it's clear Hez is not disarming, Israel will have to make threats, gather troups to invade, maybe even starting bombing. then Hez retaliates against imminent invasion with rockets and you're around the same mulberry bush.

 

[R. Richard]

It seems to me that guarding convoys against 'insurgents' is soldiering. The enemy will try to kill you and/or blow up the convoy; you will use deadly means to stop him. Some of the convoys are involved in military operations, and would normally be guarded by army personnel, soldiers, as in WWII.

Guarding something is a defense operation. You can't win with just defense. You also have to have offense.

It is entirely unclear, in your account of grabbing suspected terrorists whether you claim to be a rentacop, a hired soldier, or something else. You basically speak of indirectly extracting intelligence that you act on, but your unit's purpose, and the larger strategic goals are never stated. It seems you believe that situations like Iraq and Lebanon are 'fixed' by killing enough bad guys.

It is not practical to cure a terrorist situation by "killing enough bad guys." It is practical to cure a terrorist situation by "killing the correct bad guys." What is necessary is to find bad guys, typically low level bad guys. Then information about the next level of bad guys is extracted from the current bad guys. The process is repeated until you get to the "correct bad guys." Once you get to the correct bad guys, you not only deprive the terrorists of leadership, you can then persuade the terrorist leadership to give you things like bank account information and a money trail. You then confiscate said bank accounts. With the local terrorists bankrupt, you then follow the money trail back to its source(s). A high ranking military official whose name and country I am not at liberty to reveal stated of me, "He may be overqualified for the job."

 

[Pure]

rr, i believe you are describing the thinking of the French Army officers as portrayed in the Battle of Algiers, who set out to 'off' the 'right' bad guys as you put it.

note: they, so to say, won the battle of the day , but lost the war.

rather, i would say, the lesson of successful counterinsurgency takes into account the nature of guerrillas and insurgents, as delineated by Mao, Giap, and others.

as seen in the Philippines, early this century one has to: 1) separate the people from the 'bad guys', relocating them from their villages and killing off a goodly number of them; 2) alienate the people from the bad guys by showing that they how will starve and/or be killed if they support them; 3) convince the people that some alternative way exists for them to peace and security; 4) [as you say] catch and kill of most of the 'bad guys' and 'turn' the others against their bros in arms.

it can be seen that this is not happening in Iraq, nor have the Israeli's done it in south lebanon. ergo those insurgencies still exist; and there is no evidence of their diminished power.

 

[R. Richard]

rr, i believe you are describing the thinking of the French Army officers as portrayed in the Battle of Algiers, who set out to 'off' the 'right' bad guys as you put it.

note: they, so to say, won the battle of the day , but lost the war.

I am actually familiar with the "European military way of thinking." The Europeans see things from a political/ leadership centric view. Such a view is partially correct. Once you get to the correct bad guys, you deprive the terrorists of leadership, at least temporarily. However, new terrorist leaders will simply spring up [mostly dispatched by headquarters.] Thuis leaves the European solution back at square one.

However, once you get to the correct bad guys, you can then persuade the terrorist leadership to give you things like bank account information and a money trail. [Mao said power grows from the barrel of a gun. However, Mao's gun costs money. No money, no gun.]

You then confiscate the bank accounts where you obtained said bank account information. You then leave the local terrorists bankrupt. You then follow the money trail back to its source(s). You confiscate the terrorist money, plus a fee for your trouble at each point in the money trail. [The fee is calculated by the formula: "all of the money at a point" - "terrorist money" = "fee for trouble."] The money thing is very difficult to sell to European military and impossible to sell to European politicians. That is why Europe can't really deal with terrorists.

You seem to view with some favor the idea of inflicting pain on innocent people to get then to reject the terrorists. If I may say, this is not the way. The way [rejected by even the European and US military] is to take the dearly beloved of the terrorists and train them to make a living. Mostly the dearly beloved have little or no practical skills to deal with the modern world. There is one skill that they have that does not even require much training. The dearly beloved can work as the "10 dinar whores" so beloved of Saddam. [One thing that will discourage a terrorist better than anything else practical is that his wife/wives may kill him when he gets home so that they will not have to work as "10 dinar whores."] Most of the world's military recoil in horror at the simple idea. OK, I say, then let them work as "11 dinar whores!" I mean, you try to negotiate with people and they won't even listen.

 

[Pure]

rr However, once you get to the correct bad guys, you can then persuade the terrorist leadership to give you things like bank account information and a money trail. [Mao said power grows from the barrel of a gun. However, Mao's gun costs money. No money, no gun.]

You then confiscate the bank accounts where you obtained said bank account information. You then leave the local terrorists bankrupt. You then follow the money trail back to its source(s). You confiscate the terrorist money, plus a fee for your trouble at each point in the money trail. [The fee is calculated by the formula: "all of the money at a point" - "terrorist money" = "fee for trouble."] The money thing is very difficult to sell to European military and impossible to sell to European politicians. That is why Europe can't really deal with terrorists.

P: sounds good, rr. wonder why the us government didn't do it in connection with the first WTC bombing? the idea of tracking terrorist money seems to have arisen since 9-11--will you describe which bank accounts of saudis have been seized in connection with that investigation?

taking the present case, how do you propose to dry up Hezbollah's money, lots of it from Iran?

in connection with retraining terrorists and potential terrorists how would this be carried out, and by whom, in S. Lebanon.

yes, it's a mistake, from a counterinsurgency perspective, to inflict mild to moderate hardships on people (they then generate recruits). but isn't that what's been done in S. Lebanon? and in the N.?
--

PS. Today's paper has an article pointing out that Syria could lean on hezbollah; the US hopes to induce Syria to do so (how is not clear). Syria, however, was not a party to the ceasefire agreement.

 

[Pure]

Civilian "Contractor" found guilty of assault (this is the first such case)

U.S. civilian guilty in deadly assault
CIA contractor beat Afghan prisoner during questioning

Actions `neither authorized nor condoned' by spy agency

Toronto Star
Aug. 18, 2006. 08:07 AM


RALEIGH, N.C.—A former CIA contractor accused of severely beating an Afghan detainee with a flashlight during questioning was found guilty yesterday of assault.

The beaten detainee later died, but David Passaro, 40, was not charged in his death. After about eight hours of deliberations, a federal jury found him guilty of three counts of simple assault and one count of assault resulting in serious bodily injury.

Passaro faces up to 11 1/2 years in prison. No sentencing date was immediately set.

Passaro was the first American civilian to be charged with mistreating a detainee during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was accused of beating Abdul Wali while the man was being questioned in 2003 about rocket attacks on a remote base where Passaro was stationed with U.S. and Afghan troops.

"Today, a North Carolina jury sitting here in Raleigh delivered a message to the world and that is that no one is above or beneath the laws of the United States of America," said acting U.S. Attorney George Holding. "This should be a message to the world that wherever U.S. laws are ruling today, justice will be done."

Michael Hayden, director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, said in an email to CIA employees that Passaro's actions were "unlawful, reprehensible, and neither authorized nor condoned by the agency."


Passaro was impassive when the verdicts were read. He then stood and held out his arms so U.S. marshals could handcuff him and lead him away.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



"Dave was disappointed in the verdict. We're going to keep on fighting," said defence lawyer Joe Gilbert. He declined to say if Passaro planned to appeal.

Passaro, a former U.S. army special forces medic, was tried under a provision of the USA Patriot Act that allows charges against American citizens for crimes committed on land or facilities designated for use by the U.S. government.

Lawyers painted vastly different pictures of the defendant during the trial. Prosecutor Jim Candelmo said Passaro beat Wali "mercilessly for 48 hours before he died" as he tried to get information about rocket attacks on the Asadabad base in northeastern Afghanistan.

The beating was so severe Wali pleaded to be shot to end his pain, prosecutors said.

Passaro's lawyers portrayed their client as a good soldier who went out of his way to offer care to Wali. Gilbert argued Passaro tapped Wali with the flashlight.

"Basically, Dave lost the game of musical chairs," Gilbert said. "We wouldn't be here if this terrorist hadn't died."

Prosecutors had charged Passaro with two counts of assault with a dangerous weapon with intent to cause bodily harm, and two counts of assault resulting in serious bodily injury. The jury instead convicted him of lesser charges, an option the judge offered during jury instructions.

ASSOCIATED PRESS, reuters

 

[R. Richard]

P: sounds good, rr. wonder why the us government didn't do it in connection with the first WTC bombing? the idea of tracking terrorist money seems to have arisen since 9-11--will you describe which bank accounts of saudis have been seized in connection with that investigation?

The US government does not, as a general policy seize the assets of foreign governments. There are any number of US citizens who have won large judgements against foreign governments and been unable to collect because the US governmetn will not seize the assets of said foreign government.

taking the present case, how do you propose to dry up Hezbollah's money, lots of it from Iran?

in connection with retraining terrorists and potential terrorists how would this be carried out, and by whom, in S. Lebanon.

I don't propose to tell you exactly how to do it. However, consider this a million dollars in large bills still fills a duffle bag. It is not practical to send the perhaps million dollars a day that Iran uses to fund Hizb'Allah via courier in a duffle bag. Thus, Iran uses another method to send the money to Hizb'Allah. The method that Iran uses is a very conventional one and the method of interdicting the money transfer is very simple.

yes, it's a mistake, from a counterinsurgency perspective, to inflict mild to moderate hardships on people (they then generate recruits). but isn't that what's been done in S. Lebanon? and in the N.?

It may have escaped your attention, but there was a war in South Lebanon. When one side insists on fighting from among civilians, there will be collateral damage. By the way, fighting from among civilians is a violation of the laws of war. Where is the UN to enforce the laws of war?

PS. Today's paper has an article pointing out that Syria could lean on hezbollah; the US hopes to induce Syria to do so (how is not clear). Syria, however, was not a party to the ceasefire agreement.[/QUOTE]
In general the heavy arms that Hizb'Allah uses come from Iran, via Syria. There really is no other way. Syria's economy is in a shambles. Thus, the US has some economic leverage with Syria. If Syria stops transferring heavy arms to Hizb'Allah, Hizb'Allah very quickly runs out of heavy arms.

 

[Jenny_Jackson]

No cease fire in the middle east will hold for any extended period of time. The UN has a brokered a Cease Fire but the UN has no resolution to enforce a Hezbollah disarmament. The Lebanon Army is understaffed, under equiped and on the side of the "Palestinian Movement." There will be no disarmament.

Hezbollah will never disarm itself as long as they have the support of the Palestinian people. That support will continue as long as the Palestinians believe that Hezbollah is fighting for them. What are Hezbollah's real motives? Power. When Hezbollah gains the power they want will they see to the needs of the Palestinians? I doubt it. The Palistinian issue will have brought them to power and will keep them in power as long as they can continue to stir hatred of Isreal in the collecive Palistinian mind.

Will the Cease Fire break down? Of course it will. This is a CEASE FIRE. The war isn't over. Will it happen soon? I doubt it. Will it happen in one to three years? I'm sure of it.

 

[rgraham666]

There will never be peace in the Middle East because the people in charge of the various factions do not want peace.

They want victory, which is an entirely different thing altogether.

 

[Boxlicker101]

I am actually familiar with the "European military way of thinking." The Europeans see things from a political/ leadership centric view. Such a view is partially correct. Once you get to the correct bad guys, you deprive the terrorists of leadership, at least temporarily. However, new terrorist leaders will simply spring up [mostly dispatched by headquarters.] Thuis leaves the European solution back at square one.

However, once you get to the correct bad guys, you can then persuade the terrorist leadership to give you things like bank account information and a money trail. [Mao said power grows from the barrel of a gun. However, Mao's gun costs money. No money, no gun.]

You then confiscate the bank accounts where you obtained said bank account information. You then leave the local terrorists bankrupt. You then follow the money trail back to its source(s). You confiscate the terrorist money, plus a fee for your trouble at each point in the money trail. [The fee is calculated by the formula: "all of the money at a point" - "terrorist money" = "fee for trouble."] The money thing is very difficult to sell to European military and impossible to sell to European politicians. That is why Europe can't really deal with terrorists.

You seem to view with some favor the idea of inflicting pain on innocent people to get then to reject the terrorists. If I may say, this is not the way. The way [rejected by even the European and US military] is to take the dearly beloved of the terrorists and train them to make a living. Mostly the dearly beloved have little or no practical skills to deal with the modern world. There is one skill that they have that does not even require much training. The dearly beloved can work as the "10 dinar whores" so beloved of Saddam. [One thing that will discourage a terrorist better than anything else practical is that his wife/wives may kill him when he gets home so that they will not have to work as "10 dinar whores."] Most of the world's military recoil in horror at the simple idea. OK, I say, then let them work as "11 dinar whores!" I mean, you try to negotiate with people and they won't even listen.

Except for the IRA, I believe Europe has never dealt with large groups of terrorists, such as Hezbollah. The Red Brigades of Italy and the Baader Meinhof Gang of Germany were relatively small organizations and were self-financed through robberies and extortion. The IRA did the same, with help from individual Irish-Americans, either stupidly or maliciously.

With the small organizations, once the leaders were killed or in prison, and held incommunicado, the organizations pretty much dissolved. In those cases, the European method worked.

 

[oggbashan]

Except for the IRA, I believe Europe has never dealt with large groups of terrorists, such as Hezbollah. The Red Brigades of Italy and the Baader Meinhof Gang of Germany were relatively small organizations and were self-financed through robberies and extortion. The IRA did the same, with help from individual Irish-Americans, either stupidly or maliciously.

With the small organizations, once the leaders were killed or in prison, and held incommunicado, the organizations pretty much dissolved. In those cases, the European method worked.

I disagree. Europe has dealt with large groups of terrorists.

In WWII, the French Resistance, the Maquis, and the various Yugoslav groups and others waged war against Nazi Germany with considerable effect. Of course, because they were on 'our' side, we don't count them as terrorists.

The Germany Army, the SS and the other police units had some successes but the resistance groups continued to operate and were effective in tying down numerous German formations prior to and after D-Day.

The Germans were ultimately unsuccessful in defeating an enemy supported by the local population and supplied from beyond the borders.

Og