Brexit effects?

[Handley_Page]

I read a few comments from people who voted Leave who seemed to think their vote was just to negotiate with the EU, I guess for border controls. But yeah, Leave leadership seemed to promote the idea that the country would just revert to some kind of nebulous "good old days" with no bloody furiners around.
.

Well, not quite the "good ole days", more a restoration of our sovereignty, coinage and way of life. There really is a great deal of opposition to Hr Junker and his ideas of a Federal superstate ("The United States of Europe", which does not go down well with many English people.

Early on, some of the campaigners for Leave did say that a vote to Leave might mean a re-negotiation of the UK's relationship with Europe and therefore the UK remaining in a reformed EU - but that was rejected by Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the EU Commission)and some EU leaders.

Brexit does require serious negotiation on what happens WHEN the UK leaves but the idea that we could vote Leave and get a better deal than was offered to David Cameron was not a possibility.

The deal offered to Cameron took a lot of hard work by EU countries. In practice it was nothing like enough and never could be, because it did not address unrestricted movement of people in Europe. The other countries see that as a fundamental principle of the EU which they weren't going to modify just for the UK. But without any change on that, David Cameron had nothing substantial to offer the UK's electorate.

Juncker added that what had been offered to Cameron was subject to the offers being in compliance with the EU treaties. That meant that even the concessions that were offered could be overruled by European courts.

BUT - the UK has not invoked Article 50. Until it does, the process of leaving the EU doesn't start. David Cameron is stepping down as Prime Minister and has said he will NOT invoke Article 50 but leave that to his successor.

The referendum result is advisory and not binding on the UK Parliament. There is no majority in Westminster for leave, in fact there is a massive cross-party majority to stay in the EU. Whoever becomes the next (Conservative) Prime Minister will have a difficult task to get Parliament to agree Brexit, to invoke Article 50, and to pass the lengthy and complex legislation that would be required. No party has a mandate to leave the EU. No party had promised to leave the EU. All that had been promised is that a referendum would be held.

Now the referendum result was NOT what Parliament expected, they don't seem to have any idea what to do now. They won't do anything at all until the Conservative Party has elected a new leader and therefore a new Prime Minister. But when he/she is appointed, he/she has a big problem. Does Parliament ignore the result of the referendum, or does it invoke Article 50 when almost every Member of Parliament sees that as the WRONG thing to do?

Don't know are the most popular words now.

I fear that if Parliament goes against the will of the majority of the UK citizenry, there really will be a nasty mess on the carpet. The UK seems to have made several EU states have another think. Even the Dutch are having second thoughts, and parts of eastern Europe are in a regular ferment about it.

Back in February, D Cameron went round several of the heads of various states with a sort of shopping list. He failed to get anything significant, a matter hastily covered up by the non-reporting in much of the media. Frankly, I am surprised that there is so much fall-out and so little practical application of logic. First thing after the Article 50 process is to repeal several bits of pro-EU legislation.

As for immigration, there seems to be considerable confusion between valid "free-movement" of EU citizens and migrants from elsewhere, who have caused a great deal of chaos in several EU states so far, if reports are to be believed.

 

[Bramblethorn]

BT, you know how much I enjoy arguing with you.

Always a pleasure

The fact of the matter is, there is an extraordinary amount of work that needs to be done. I don't know about your neck of the woods, but here in the mighty US our transportation infrastructure is amazingly primitive and inadequate. We waste literally millions of man-hours every day as our population is trapped in traffic jams, attempting to commute. The southwestern portion of the country is slowly dying of thirst, because the water diversion program that was designed to solve this problem in the 1960s was never built. We don't have enough electrical power plants; here on the west coast we are being advised that there will be blackouts this summer, especially during heat waves where elderly people die without air conditioning. We don't have enough hospitals, and more are being shut down every day due to the rapacious for-profit "reform" under Obamacare.

Indeed. There, though, I think the problem is less about a shortage of labour and more about unwillingness to pay for such projects? (And indeed "public good" projects generally.)

Now, these are all examples of problems that can't be solved by automation. The construction work can't be done by 3D printers.

Probably not quite yet, for the sort of infrastructure you're talking about above, but 3D printing of buildings is already here.

Here's a Chinese company that prints houses out of concrete: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzmCnzA7hnE (if anybody's wondering why no rebar, I think that's a fibre-reinforced concrete that doesn't need it).
This guy built a concrete printer and made himself a small castle as a hobby project: https://youtu.be/DQ5Elbvvr1M?t=1m58s
He's since printed (the concrete bits of) a functional hotel suite: http://www.totalkustom.com/

Obviously that doesn't cover the whole construction - for the time being you'll still need plumbers, electricians etc. But I expect the technology will develop to replace more of those functions over time.
These guys have just started printing a metal bridge:
http://mx3d.com/news/mx3d-bridge-watch-the-start-of-a-project/

I expect the early applications will be things like prefab housing where you can create one design and print off many copies of it, and then move them to where they're needed rather than having to haul the printer around. But with a bit more work, a computer can be programmed to generate custom designs (and remind you if you forget to include a bathroom).

High-performance applications are probably further away. I'm not much of a structural engineer but I presume the need for a printable medium would restrict design options. Still, that leaves a lot of room for 3D tech to replace work that's currently done by hand.

(Automation has been increasing in construction for a long time, mind; over the years we've replaced a lot of human labour with mechanical shovels, cranes, and so forth.)

 

[Bramblethorn]

Well, not quite the "good ole days", more a restoration of our sovereignty, coinage and way of life. There really is a great deal of opposition to Hr Junker and his ideas of a Federal superstate ("The United States of Europe", which does not go down well with many English people.

Restoration of the coinage - I think I'm missing something here. The UK still has its own currency, what is there to restore?

 

[geronimo_appleby]

Restoration of the coinage - I think I'm missing something here. The UK still has its own currency, what is there to restore?

its value back to last week yesterday would be nice.

 

[AlwaysHungry]

Always a pleasure
Indeed. There, though, I think the problem is less about a shortage of labour and more about unwillingness to pay for such projects? (And indeed "public good" projects generally.)

Probably not quite yet, for the sort of infrastructure you're talking about above, but 3D printing of buildings is already here.

I think that generally, the conventional wisdom (that we have high levels of unemployment because there is simply no work to be done) is motivated in part by unwillingness to pay for what is fact vitally important work. I think that there is also an axiomatic assumption that we should be striving for a static, feudal ("sustainable") form of economy which eases us back into the old, comfortable, class society, i.e. the 1% and the remaining 99%.

The kind of infrastructure I'm talking about involves what is in effect a sort of terraforming of inhospitable regions of our own planet, creating new regional ecosystems and re-arranging the terrain. China's "move south water north" program exemplifies that, as would the proposed Canadian-American NAWAPA program which was an early casualty of the return to feudalism. The Asian community and everyone who trades with them (meaning the planet generally) would benefit tremendously from a canal through the isthmus of Kra in Thailand. To build that efficiently would mean using PNEs initially, but would require an army of workers to complete.

And then, if we take the long view (as the Chinese do and the Americans once did), we should be thinking about moving our civilization out of the womb and into the galaxy. That's going to require some labor.

 

[geronimo_appleby]

I think that generally, the conventional wisdom (that we have high levels of unemployment because there is simply no work to be done) is motivated in part by unwillingness to pay for what is fact vitally important work. I think that there is also an axiomatic assumption that we should be striving for a static, feudal ("sustainable") form of economy which eases us back into the old, comfortable, class society, i.e. the 1% and the remaining 99%.

The kind of infrastructure I'm talking about involves what is in effect a sort of terraforming of inhospitable regions of our own planet, creating new regional ecosystems and re-arranging the terrain. China's "move south water north" program exemplifies that, as would the proposed Canadian-American NAWAPA program which was an early casualty of the return to feudalism. The Asian community and everyone who trades with them (meaning the planet generally) would benefit tremendously from a canal through the isthmus of Kra in Thailand. To build that efficiently would mean using PNEs initially, but would require an army of workers to complete.

And then, if we take the long view (as the Chinese do and the Americans once did), we should be thinking about moving our civilization out of the womb and into the galaxy. That's going to require some labor.

good luck with that canal!

 

[oggbashan]

Restoration of the coinage - I think I'm missing something here. The UK still has its own currency, what is there to restore?

Pounds, shillings and pence as before 15 February 1971 - 12 pennies to a shilling and twenty shillings to a pound.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/75/c4/08/75c40876b2e168133f42b983790f3b90.jpg

 

[Handley_Page]

Restoration of the coinage - I think I'm missing something here. The UK still has its own currency, what is there to restore?

Ah, well, Jean-Claude Junker (the arch federalist in the EU governors) has said that ALL EU states will employ the 'Euro' as coin. Naturally, the majority of the English are definitely NOT KEEN on this - at all.
The bounder even made a throw-away remark that we can have our Queen on the stuff.

 

[sr71plt]

Pounds, shillings and pence as before 15 February 1971 - 12 pennies to a shilling and twenty shillings to a pound.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/75/c4/08/75c40876b2e168133f42b983790f3b90.jpg

Ah, good. I have lot of that someplace that I didn't think I'd ever be able to use again.

 

[Handley_Page]

~You could probably get a better rate selling it on E-Bay.

 

[AlwaysHungry]

Here's an analysis of the Brexit by one of my favorite news commentators, Glenn Greenwald. I find it refreshingly non-superficial.

 

[Handley_Page]

Here's an analysis of the Brexit by one of my favorite news commentators, Glenn Greenwald. I find it refreshingly non-superficial.

A quick glance shows that he has a decent measure of it. I'll read it thoroughly later on.
However,
Tony Blair and his Party had been elected. To the sound of "Things can only get Better" (repeated all too often and at terrifying volume) he made it to the podium,. where amongst other things he stressed his first mantra "Education, Education, Education."
Most of us thought or expected that there would be a decent bit of work done for education.
I've seen the results in the form of ordinary kids of 16-odd years old.
They are terrible.
I realise that there are forces outside school which have not helped (mostly for rounding down to the lowest common denominator), but still . . . .

 

[AlwaysHungry]

Tony Blair and his Party had been elected.

That was when things began to go sour, and the US followed suit -- both Labour and the Democratic party, which had traditionally been associated with working people and social justice, became the new, trendy, suave fascist parties, full of zest to bully weaker countries all over the world, and fellate the financiers.

 

[Handley_Page]

Here's an analysis of the Brexit by one of my favorite news commentators, Glenn Greenwald. I find it refreshingly non-superficial.

It took me a while to read it (I ain't that good with English) but generally, I'd agree with his criticisms. At a time when we need a person of some stature to actually Lead this UK, we have divisions & strive in both parties.
So far, the choice would seem like [1] a woman who has not noticeably succeeded in her Office of State, and [2] an old-fashioned Communist-leaning appeasing dipstick.