A thank-you to Manu and his magic broom

[nice90sguy]

With 250 or so votes and a score of 4.47, I expected one of my stories to remain H-less forever. Today its score is 4.59. To me that seems like a huge number of low votes got purged in that sweep! I know some of you have a formula for this: If it were just 1 votes that got removed, how many would that be? around ten?

 

[Bramblethorn]

Assuming you had exactly 250 votes for an average of 4.47, and removing 1s brought that up to 4.59 with no other votes added or subtracted:

The exact average could be anything between 4.465 (inclusive) and 4.475 (exclusive), which works out to between 1117 and 1119 stars pre-sweep. Let's assume 1118.

Let n = number of 1s removed. Then:

(1118-n)/(250-n) = 4.59
1118-n = 4.59(250-n) = 1147.5 - 4.59n
3.59n = 29.5

which works out at about n=8, give or take.

 

[PrincessArianrhod]

...which works out at about n=8, give or take.

Every day is a school day.

 

[Altissimus]

What gets me is when 5*-votes get wiped out in the sweeps. I mean... who comes along and casually 5-stars a story they haven't read (or whatever the sweep uses as a justification for the vote not being valid)? I've seen this happen a number of times this year to my stories. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.

 

[Bamagan]

What gets me is when 5*-votes get wiped out in the sweeps. I mean... who comes along and casually 5-stars a story they haven't read (or whatever the sweep uses as a justification for the vote not being valid)? I've seen this happen a number of times this year to my stories. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.

I suppose it could be a very weird and sophisticated form of trolling to bookmark dozens of stories and quickly rush through voting 5s on everything with the expectation that the behavior will eventually trigger some kind of sweep for the account or IP address, with the goal of artificially inflating the score to get the authors feeling good and then have the rug pulled out. Kind of like giving a brightly wrapped present that, when opened, proves to be an empty box. To be clear, I doubt this is happening, and it would be arguably insane, but people are odd.
But there's a possibility that a similar thing could be happening, where a reader withholds their votes on a series to see how it ends and then goes back to the beginning and votes each one based on the overall arc. Might not be applicable to your case, and in any case it probably doesn't happen much if at all, but I could see that kind of pattern getting flagged for suspicion of mischief, so to speak.

 

[Lifestyle66]

4.47 * 250 = 4.59 * N (where N is the new vote number)

(4.47 * 250)/4.59 = (4.59 * N)/4.59 (isolating N by dividing both sides by 4.59)

1117.5/4.59 = N (4.59 cancels out on the right side)

243.4641 = N

250 - 243.4641 = 6.5359 votes removed

Rounding up suggests they removed six or seven 1-bombs, depending on how close the 4.47 was (slightly over or under.)

Note that this assumes there were no other votes after the sweep and the new average.

 

[Altissimus]

I suppose it could be a very weird and sophisticated form of trolling to bookmark dozens of stories and quickly rush through voting 5s on everything with the expectation that the behavior will eventually trigger some kind of sweep for the account or IP address, with the goal of artificially inflating the score to get the authors feeling good and then have the rug pulled out. Kind of like giving a brightly wrapped present that, when opened, proves to be an empty box. To be clear, I doubt this is happening, and it would be arguably insane, but people are odd.
But there's a possibility that a similar thing could be happening, where a reader withholds their votes on a series to see how it ends and then goes back to the beginning and votes each one based on the overall arc. Might not be applicable to your case, and in any case it probably doesn't happen much if at all, but I could see that kind of pattern getting flagged for suspicion of mischief, so to speak.

The latter suggestion seems viable to me.

 

[KachinaDoll]

Assuming you had exactly 250 votes for an average of 4.47, and removing 1s brought that up to 4.59 with no other votes added or subtracted:

The exact average could be anything between 4.465 (inclusive) and 4.475 (exclusive), which works out to between 1117 and 1119 stars pre-sweep. Let's assume 1118.

Let n = number of 1s removed. Then:

(1118-n)/(250-n) = 4.59
1118-n = 4.59(250-n) = 1147.5 - 4.59n
3.59n = 29.5

which works out at about n=8, give or take.

Now I know why I'm a graphic designer and not a mathematician.

 

[MelissaBaby]

What gets me is when 5*-votes get wiped out in the sweeps. I mean... who comes along and casually 5-stars a story they haven't read (or whatever the sweep uses as a justification for the vote not being valid)? I've seen this happen a number of times this year to my stories. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.

It happens to me all the time. I post a 70k word story, and in the first ten or fifteen minutes, get a handful of 5's, well before the time a reader could get anywhere near reading more than a portion of the story. Whether or not they get swept, I couldn't say, but I couldn't honestly argue that they are legitimate votes.

 

[Altissimus]

It happens to me all the time. I post a 70k word story, and in the first ten or fifteen minutes, get a handful of 5's, well before the time a reader could get anywhere near reading more than a portion of the story. Whether or not they get swept, I couldn't say, but I couldn't honestly argue that they are legitimate votes.

That's pretty weird behaviour, isn't it? I posted part 9 of a series this week (20k words) and it was ages before the votes started trickling through, which is the kind of behaviour I'd expect (particularly as you're either a) reliant on readers following you, already up to date with the first 8 parts, or b) people thinking 'that looks interesting' and start part 1 to get to part 9... 110k words... doesn't happen quickly.) But to have votes on a70k piece that can't be read in time... I don't have a theory for that. Maybe they just like your name?

 

[Candy_Kane54]

What gets me is when 5*-votes get wiped out in the sweeps. I mean... who comes along and casually 5-stars a story they haven't read (or whatever the sweep uses as a justification for the vote not being valid)? I've seen this happen a number of times this year to my stories. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.

I've had many 5*s swept from my multipart stories. My theory is the reader was timed out of their log-in before finishing a part and voted on it as anonymous without realizing it. Then they'd come back later, having logged in again, and saw that their vote was missing and voted for it again. Then the sweep comes along and notices two 5*s from the same computer at the same IP address and deletes one of them.

 

[Voboy]

What gets me is when 5*-votes get wiped out in the sweeps. I mean... who comes along and casually 5-stars a story they haven't read (or whatever the sweep uses as a justification for the vote not being valid)? I've seen this happen a number of times this year to my stories. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.

If you've got fans (not followers, but actual hard-core fans), I could see them jumping to every new story you post and giving an automatic five, just because. I can easily see that. I can also see writers 5*ing their own stories indiscriminately, perhaps from more than one account, and I can definitely believe there are Lit friends of writers who do the same thing.

I have no doubt there are quite a few illegitimate 5* votes.

 

[MelissaBaby]

That's pretty weird behaviour, isn't it? I posted part 9 of a series this week (20k words) and it was ages before the votes started trickling through, which is the kind of behaviour I'd expect (particularly as you're either a) reliant on readers following you, already up to date with the first 8 parts, or b) people thinking 'that looks interesting' and start part 1 to get to part 9... 110k words... doesn't happen quickly.) But to have votes on a70k piece that can't be read in time... I don't have a theory for that. Maybe they just like your name?

My best guess is that they are followers who assume they will like whatever I offer.

 

[Altissimus]

...Lit friends of writers...

Not a thing. We're all in denial about what we do.

Reminds me of that scene in Love Actually, when the two porn stars get together.

"So, how did you two meet?"
"...Um..."

 

[MillieDynamite]

Over my head, have I ever mentioned, I'm not a mathematician?

Assuming you had exactly 250 votes for an average of 4.47, and removing 1s brought that up to 4.59 with no other votes added or subtracted:

The exact average could be anything between 4.465 (inclusive) and 4.475 (exclusive), which works out to between 1117 and 1119 stars pre-sweep. Let's assume 1118.

Let n = number of 1s removed. Then:

(1118-n)/(250-n) = 4.59
1118-n = 4.59(250-n) = 1147.5 - 4.59n
3.59n = 29.5

which works out at about n=8, give or take.

 

[lilshymynx]

I've had many 5*s swept from my multipart stories. My theory is the reader was timed out of their log-in before finishing a part and voted on it as anonymous without realizing it. Then they'd come back later, having logged in again, and saw that their vote was missing and voted for it again. Then the sweep comes along and notices two 5*s from the same computer at the same IP address and deletes one of them.

I've seen this happen to me. Stories that I know I voted on and went back to re-read and saw my vote was gone, so I voted again.

 

[Bramblethorn]

4.47 * 250 = 4.59 * N (where N is the new vote number)

That's not right. 4.47*250 would be the total number of stars before the sweep, and 4.59*N would be the total number after. But those numbers aren't equal, because the sweep removes stars.

Number of votes swept is (250-N) so it should be:

4.47 * 250 - (250-N) = 4.59 * N

which simplifies to

3.47 * 250 = 3.59 * N

N = 250 * (3.47/3.59)

= 241.6

Rounding to 242 implies 8 votes swept, as per my answer.

 

[Bramblethorn]

If you've got fans (not followers, but actual hard-core fans), I could see them jumping to every new story you post and giving an automatic five, just because. I can easily see that. I can also see writers 5*ing their own stories indiscriminately, perhaps from more than one account, and I can definitely believe there are Lit friends of writers who do the same thing.

I have no doubt there are quite a few illegitimate 5* votes.

I saw one case where a story that had been out a while (not one of mine) was getting hundreds of votes a day, almost all of them 5-stars. Before that, it had been scoring in "H" territory but nowhere near as high as the new votes. My best guess is some Number One Fan multi-voting to boost their fave.

It got swept, the score dropped sharply, hundreds more votes came in, it got swept again. Then I think the author got upset about the vote shenanigans and took the story down; I'm not sure if they ever realised that it was one of their fans rather than somebody bombing it. :-/

 

[MillieDynamite]

I glanced, glanced I say, at the formulas, and now I can't uncross my eyes. WTF!

 

[Lifestyle66]

That's not right. 4.47*250 would be the total number of stars before the sweep, and 4.59*N would be the total number after. But those numbers aren't equal, because the sweep removes stars.

Number of votes swept is (250-N) so it should be:

4.47 * 250 - (250-N) = 4.59 * N

which simplifies to

3.47 * 250 = 3.59 * N

N = 250 * (3.47/3.59)

= 241.6

Rounding to 242 implies 8 votes swept, as per my answer.

I stand corrected. Thanks.

 

[TarnishedPenny]

I stand corrected. Thanks.

May I say sir, nothing personal at all, but it is so nice to see a gentleman simple saying, ‘Oops, I was wrong and you were right.” How sadly atypical for online.

 

[ElectricBlue]

What gets me is when 5*-votes get wiped out in the sweeps. I mean... who comes along and casually 5-stars a story they haven't read (or whatever the sweep uses as a justification for the vote not being valid)? I've seen this happen a number of times this year to my stories. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.

Not so helpful fans, "helping" their favourite authors.

 

[Cacatua_Galerita]

I was hoping for ‘Manu and his magic broom’ to restore my scores, in my current competition entry.

After three days, my rating was 4.81/278. Today, it is currently sitting at 4.78/364, meaning the last 86 votes averaged a 4.66 rating.

My first thought was “uh-oh, sounds like somebody’s got a case of the Monday’s” because the score dipped on Monday (US time)… But I now presume Manu runs his sweeps on weekdays, and that 5-stars get purged too.

I wasn’t sure who would 5-bomb my story, as I only have 34 followers, but Bamagan’s theory above is plausible to me. I.e. my entry was always a ~4.78 story and I got 5-bombed on the first weekend, as part of a plot against one of the other competitors.

Anyway, even a 4.81 won’t get me into prize-money contention – I’d still be well behind some ‘no talent hack.’

 

[KeithD]

When you've been around longer, you'll discover it's not good to mention your high contest story scores on the discussion board. That's generally an "oh, yeah?" down vote magnet.

Beyond that, it's pretty useless to hang on the scores until that last major sweep at the end. The score is going to change pretty drastically.