4est_4est_Gump
Run Forrest! RUN!
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- Sep 19, 2011
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Robert J. Shiller...
There is a social phenomenon loosely called a speculative bubble that can drive prices, even occasionally for the world’s stock markets, to high levels.
The notion of a speculative bubble was seen for a long time as disreputable in finance circles, but it is gradually gaining acceptance. It takes a different view of the world, more akin to that of psychologists or sociologists.
In general, bubbles appear to be associated with half-baked popular stories that inspire investor optimism, stories that can neither be proved nor disproved. In recent days, those stories have been about peppy earnings growth or perpetual low interest rates or about the inevitable high long-run performance of the stock market. During the upswing of the bubble, many people find it useful to latch on to these stories, to profit from the illusions they create. Some of these people are in the investment field, others in politics or the news media. In the words of John Kenneth Galbraith in 1958, they create with constant repetition, because it profits them, a sense of “conventional wisdom” about some inspiring investor story.
In a soon-to-appear book, “Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception” (Princeton University Press), that I wrote with George Akerlof of Georgetown University, we argue that the proliferation of such stories is a natural part of economic equilibrium. Successful people who value their careers rely on an instinctive sense for what pitch will sell. Who knows what the truth is, anyway?
As time goes on, the stories justifying investor optimism become increasingly shopworn and criticized, and people find themselves doubting them more and more. Even though people are asking themselves if prices are too high, they are slow to take action to sell. When prices make a sudden drop, as they did in recent days, people tend to become fearful, even if there is a subsequent rebound. With the drop they suddenly realize that their views might be shared by other people, and start looking for information that might confirm their belief. Some are driven to sell immediately. Others are slower, but they are all similarly motivated. The result is an irregular but large stock market decline over a year or more....
Do you know what CAPE is?
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/30/u...-stocks-are-overpriced.html?ref=business&_r=0