2018 midterm elections prediction thread

[Kirkrapine]

One the one hand, the economy is doing well -- that is always good for the party in power. (GHWB won a war, and still failed at re-election because of a faltering economy.)

OTOH, Trump has made it almost impossible for Republicans to get any nonwhite or Latino votes, and has seriously hindered their ability to get female votes, and has made a lot of people far more furious than usual at the GOP.

How will it play out? Place your bets.

 

[oggbashan]

The Russians will hack as much as they can and feed false information on as many platforms as possible.

 

[Kirkrapine]

The Russians will hack as much as they can and feed false information on as many platforms as possible.

Well, they could do that in 2016, but isn't our guard up now?

 

[nowisthetime]

The Russians will hack as much as they can and feed false information on as many platforms as possible.

I agree, repugs know demographics are not on their side, so they find ruthless ways to suppress votes.

That is why they are so mediocre, as they know they can cheat and get away with it.

 

[Adre]

Dems lose one or two Senate seats, Pubs lose one or two. Even. House goes solid Democratic.

It should be noted Pubs have a lot more Senate seats to defend in 2020 and 2022.

 

[IG_88]

Dems lose one or two Senate seats, Pubs lose one or two. Even. House goes solid Democratic.

This.

 

[IG_88]

Altho I did read on 538 today that the Republicans have gained a little ground in odds on keeping the house since Kavanaugh and improved on already solid senate odds.

 

[Luk]

Agree with andres.

 

[TalkRadio1]

The Republicans will maintain control of the House and the Senate in 2018

The Republicans will maintain control of the House and the Senate in 2020

Donald Trump will not run for re-election in 2020

2020 POTUS run....Mike Pence/Rob Portman v. Cory Booker/Xavier Becerra

Say hello to President Mike Pence & Vice President Rob Portman

 

[BBX50]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ8kXO5Woi3BFrW907Tts7dqb0JNlxOtrwMV66U8enhCA4nYEkM

 

[Kirkrapine]

Donald Trump will not run for re-election in 2020

What do you base that on? It's hard to believe a man with his ego wouldn't. OTOH, at no time since his inauguration has he appeared to be having a good time with the job.

 

[BBX50]

Duh Blue Wave

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/51380a_9d12ca674b66478bbc5ef58b5be65e96~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_473,h_315,al_c,lg_1,q_80/51380a_9d12ca674b66478bbc5ef58b5be65e96~mv2.webp

 

[Liar]

Current "common wisdom" predictions from the regular poll gurus is that Dems will gain something like 35 House seats, and may break even or lose one Senate seat.

I predict they will win fewer House seats, but still enough to barely flip the House. Let's say 25 seats (they need 22 iirc). Meanwhile, they will do better in the Senate, gain a seat, but not enough to flip it.

This prediction is pulled out of my arse and based on absolutely nothing. But if I'm right I demand my arse be hailed as an oracle from now on. Call it Arsetradamus.

 

[nowisthetime]

Current "common wisdom" predictions from the regular poll gurus is that Dems will gain something like 35 House seats, and may break even or lose one Senate seat.

I predict they will win fewer House seats, but still enough to barely flip the House. Let's say 25 seats (they need 22 iirc). Meanwhile, they will do better in the Senate, gain a seat, but not enough to flip it.

This prediction is pulled out of my arse and based on absolutely nothing. But if I'm right I demand my arse be hailed as an oracle from now on. Call it Arsetradamus.

The rethugs are happy that they won the Court, making a major impact for decades since you know, those nasty males tend to live a long life. They do not really care about losing some spare congressmen as a trade-off.

Elections have consequences.

 

[patient1]

What do you base that on? It's hard to believe a man with his ego wouldn't. OTOH, at no time since his inauguration has he appeared to be having a good time with the job.

I think he'll run for re-election desperately hoping to postpone criminal indictment, even if it's only for state tax evasion.

 

[HisArpy]

Current "common wisdom" predictions from the regular poll gurus is that Dems will gain something like 35 House seats, and may break even or lose one Senate seat.

I predict they will win fewer House seats, but still enough to barely flip the House. Let's say 25 seats (they need 22 iirc). Meanwhile, they will do better in the Senate, gain a seat, but not enough to flip it.

This prediction is pulled out of my arse and based on absolutely nothing. But if I'm right I demand my arse be hailed as an oracle from now on. Call it Arsetradamus.

The D's need 23 seats. Pre Kavanaugh predictions were they'll probably get 24 or 25 although some say as high as 31. Given the new election awareness and enthusiasm by the R's, the 31 is in serious doubt. The 24 or 25 aren't as assured either.

I'm thinking musical chairs in the House with some seats flipping but the balance being maintained.

The Senate will keep its Republican majority.

And Mueller will turn in his report in Mid Dec.

 

[Kirkrapine]

And Mueller will turn in his report in Mid Dec.

Why, oh, why can't he do it before the midterms?!

 

[bellisarius]

One the one hand, the economy is doing well -- that is always good for the party in power. (GHWB won a war, and still failed at re-election because of a faltering economy.)

OTOH, Trump has made it almost impossible for Republicans to get any nonwhite or Latino votes, and has seriously hindered their ability to get female votes, and has made a lot of people far more furious than usual at the GOP.

How will it play out? Place your bets.

Just quoting for posterity.

 

[HisArpy]

Why, oh, why can't he do it before the midterms?!

On the face of it, he doesn't want to do a Comey and influence the vote.

What I find interesting is the question no one is asking. What will the report say?

IMO, the answer to that lies in who wins the majority in November. Should the "blue wave" appear, the report will excoriate Trump with enough small missteps that he'll be impeached. Should the R's maintain their majorities, it will, instead, exonerate his claimed involvement in anything,

Which is the real reason why Mueller's report won't be out until after the election.

 

[SpeareChucker]

I see a prediction thread and then see that Rory has posted last, so like any other good car wreck, I just have to slow down and look.

 

[BBX50]

All Republican losses will be spun as "no big deal / it was expected / it's actually a good thing" by GB deplorables, who will then parlay their seething anger about the results into personal attack threads.

oh STFU and BUMP your 2 CuntCLinton threads

 

[BBX50]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ8kXO5Woi3BFrW907Tts7dqb0JNlxOtrwMV66U8enhCA4nYEkM

 

[BoyNextDoor]

Democrats Senate +2, House +18

 

[Kirkrapine]

On the face of it, he doesn't want to do a Comey and influence the vote.

What I find interesting is the question no one is asking. What will the report say?

IMO, the answer to that lies in who wins the majority in November. Should the "blue wave" appear, the report will excoriate Trump with enough small missteps that he'll be impeached. Should the R's maintain their majorities, it will, instead, exonerate his claimed involvement in anything,

Which is the real reason why Mueller's report won't be out until after the election.

Why should Mueller and his team tailor their report to suit the winners of the election? They personally have nothing to fear or to hope for. Once the report is done, no matter what it says or who holds Congress, they will all simply go back to their normal Justice Department jobs. They will all have a remarkable item on their resumes, maybe some will get book deals if department policy allows, and that is all they will get out of this.