2004 State by State poll numbers

[Lasher]

As I think most of us have learned from the 2000 Presidential Election, there is no one single election of a US President, but instead 51 simultaneous elections that in the end give us the actual result. For this reason I've compiled a little list here that I'm going to use to keep a running tally of potential Electoral College votes based on either anticipated results, or the most current state opinion polls. Let's face it, a national poll really does not tell you much of anything in regards to how the election will go. The more I look at the data from 2000, the more I'm convinced that Bush could've lost the popular vote in that election by as much as 2.5 percentage points and still have won in the Electoral college.

The projections you'll see here are pretty simple. When I come across a newer state poll I'll update the numbers for that state. There are many, many states - about 30 - that I don't expect to see polls on because they're just isn't a contest in those states. If you see me giving a state to a candidate with no poll numbers that's why.

Some states are just too competitive to project without poll numbers. Those states will be listed in black and their Electoral votes will be listed as unknown.

For the Democrats and Republicans I'll be using the standard red state/blue state color coding.

I'll be including numbers for Nader as long as they are viable and available. I would hope the polling organizations would stop mentioning his name when it reaches a point where he cannot be listed on that state's ballot. But we'll see how that goes.

The idea for this popped in my head I guess out of a Historian/Geeks love of studying the system. I was going to do this for myself on a spreadsheet, but I figured I might as well share the wealth.

Here's the first listing:


Alabama (9) Bush
Alaska (3) Bush
Arizona (10) Bush 51% Kerry 42% (SurveyUSA/3-21)
Arkansas (6) Bush
California (55) Kerry
Colorado (9) Bush
Connecticut (7) Kerry
Delaware (3) Kerry
D.C. (3) Kerry
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Hawaii (4) Kerry
Idaho (4) Bush
Illinois (21) Kerry
Indiana (11) Bush
Iowa (7) Kerry 51% Bush 41% (Rasmusson Poll/3-24)
Kansas (6) Bush
Kentucky (8) Bush
Louisiana (9)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10) Kerry
Massachusetts (12) Kerry
Michigan (17) Kerry 48% Bush 44% (Rasmusson Poll/3-18)
Minnesota (10) Kerry 47% Bush 43% (Rasmusson Poll/3-24)
Mississippi (6) Bush
Missouri (11) Bush 49% Kerry 42% (Rasmusson Poll/3-24)
Montana (3) Bush
Nebraska (5) Bush
Nevada (5) Bush 49% Kerry 38% (Las Vegas Review Journal/3-21)
New Hampshire (4) Bush 45% Kerry 39% Nader 8% (American Research Group/3-18)
New Jersey (15) Kerry
New Mexico (5)
New York (31) Kerry
North Carolina (15) Bush
North Dakota (3) Bush
Ohio (20) Kerry 46% Bush 44% Nader 5% (Ohio Poll/3-26)
Oklahoma (7) Bush
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania (21) Kerry 45% Bush 44% (Rasmusson Poll/3-18)
Rhode Island (4) Kerry
South Carolina (8) Bush
South Dakota (3) Bush
Tennessee (11) Bush 52% Kerry 41% (SurveyUSA/3-23)
Texas (34) Bush
Utah (5) Bush
Vermont (3) Kerry
Virginia (13) Bush
Washington (11) Kerry 47% Bush 43% (SurveyUSA/3-24)
West Virginia (5) Bush 46% Kerry 46% (American Research Group/3-24)
Wisconsin -(10) Kerry 46% Bush 43% Nader 4% (American Research Group/3-26)
Wyoming (3) Bush

Electoral College Vote (270 Needed to win)

Kerry - 264
Bush - 202
Unknown - 72


(and, yes, I realize it's a bit early to be doing this, but this is when I thought of it)

 

[ubertroll]

Florida is SO going blue this election. I'm telling you, Senior Citizen turnout is going to be ABSURD for the Dems.

 

[Lasher]

Florida is SO going blue this election. I'm telling you, Senior Citizen turnout is going to be ABSURD for the Dems.

What I've been reading has Kerry all set to write it off. Apparently his campaign is afraid of spending the money there.

 

[ubertroll]

Out of curiosity, is that a Maine Coon, or a Norwiegian Forest Cat in your AV?

 

[Lasher]

He's a Maine Coon.

 

[Ham Murabi]

Interesting project.
We can rehash 2000 for hours, but the real point to me is that Gore didn't carry his home state of Tennessee, nor did he carry Clinton's (Arkansas). If he had won either, he would be president today.

 

[Spinaroonie]

is that a Maine Coon?

Maine African American you fucking racist.

 

[ubertroll]

Interesting project.
We can rehash 2000 for hours, but the real point to me is that Gore didn't carry his home state of Tennessee, nor did he carry Clinton's (Arkansas). If he had won either, he would be president today.

And if Governor Bush hadn't committed electoral fraud, and if said Governor's fathers' appointees hadn't allowed said fraud to be upheld, Gore would be President.

What'd'ya know.

 

[Ham Murabi]

And if Governor Bush hadn't committed electoral fraud, and if said Governor's fathers' appointees hadn't allowed said fraud to be upheld, Gore would be President.

What'd'ya know.

Well, since Bush won the popular vote in Florida, despite the best efforts of Gore's team to throw out every absentee vote cast by members of the military, maybe you'd like to explain yourself.

 

[Calamity Jane]

Maine African American you fucking racist.

Holy shit, it's time for bed, I'm thinking like Spin!!!!!


Thanks Lasher. This could very well keep me from turning on my TV for the next 6 months.

 

[ubertroll]

Well, since Bush won the popular vote in Florida, despite the best efforts of Gore's team to throw out every absentee vote cast by members of the military, maybe you'd like to explain yourself.

Actually, Bush's own lawyers successfully threw out more absantee ballots than Gore's people did.

The New York Times did an in-depth statistical analysis of the absantee ballots precinct by precinct.

Really, Ham, try to keep up.

 

[Wrong Element]

Just moving the thread back to its original intent...I think the Ohio numbers are about right--for now. One thing that works against Bush here is 14 years of Republican control of the state. The GOP has been running Ohio so long that they've gone from campaigning against fear of Democratic tax increases to increasing taxes themselves. If you're pissed off about the way things are, there's only one party you can blame.

 

[LillyO]

As I think most of us have learned from the 2000 Presidential Election, there is no one single election of a US President, but instead 51 simultaneous elections that in the end give us the actual result. For this reason I've compiled a little list here that I'm going to use to keep a running tally of potential Electoral College votes based on either anticipated results, or the most current state opinion polls. Let's face it, a national poll really does not tell you much of anything in regards to how the election will go. The more I look at the data from 2000, the more I'm convinced that Bush could've lost the popular vote in that election by as much as 2.5 percentage points and still have won in the Electoral college.

The projections you'll see here are pretty simple. When I come across a newer state poll I'll update the numbers for that state. There are many, many states - about 30 - that I don't expect to see polls on because they're just isn't a contest in those states. If you see me giving a state to a candidate with no poll numbers that's why.

Some states are just too competitive to project without poll numbers. Those states will be listed in black and their Electoral votes will be listed as unknown.

For the Democrats and Republicans I'll be using the standard red state/blue state color coding.

I'll be including numbers for Nader as long as they are viable and available. I would hope the polling organizations would stop mentioning his name when it reaches a point where he cannot be listed on that state's ballot. But we'll see how that goes.

The idea for this popped in my head I guess out of a Historian/Geeks love of studying the system. I was going to do this for myself on a spreadsheet, but I figured I might as well share the wealth.

Here's the first listing:


Alabama (9) Bush
Alaska (3) Bush
Arizona (10) Bush 51% Kerry 42%
Arkansas (6) Bush
California (55) Kerry
Colorado (9) Bush
Connecticut (7) Kerry
Delaware (3) Kerry
D.C. (3) Kerry
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Hawaii (4) Kerry
Idaho (4) Bush
Illinois (21) Kerry
Indiana (11) Bush
Iowa (7) Kerry 51% Bush 41%
Kansas (6) Bush
Kentucky (8) Bush
Louisiana (9)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10) Kerry
Massachusetts (12) Kerry
Michigan (17) Kerry 48% Bush 44%
Minnesota (10) Kerry 47% Bush 43%
Mississippi (6) Bush
Missouri (11) Bush 49% Kerry 42%
Montana (3) Bush
Nebraska (5) Bush
Nevada (5) Bush 49% Kerry 38%
New Hampshire (4) Bush 45% Kerry 39% Nader 8%
New Jersey (15) Kerry
New Mexico (5)
New York (31) Kerry
North Carolina (15) Bush
North Dakota (3) Bush
Ohio (20) Kerry 46% Bush 44% Nader 5%
Oklahoma (7) Bush
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21) Kerry 45% Bush 44%
Rhode Island (4) Kerry
South Carolina (8) Bush
South Dakota (3) Bush
Tennessee (11) Bush 52% Kerry 41%
Texas (34) Bush
Utah (5) Bush
Vermont (3) Kerry
Virginia (13) Bush
Washington (11) Kerry 47% Bush 43%
West Virginia (5) Bush 46% Kerry 46%
Wisconsin (10) Kerry 46% Bush 43% Nader 4%
Wyoming (3) Bush

Electoral College Vote

Kerry - 264
Bush - 202
Unknown - 72

(and, yes, I realize it's a bit early to be doing this, but this is when I thought of it)

Shit.....I was hoping Kerry was up by more than 4 points in Washington......just so I don't have to watch there damn commercials every 15 minutes!!!

 

[busybody..]

Kerry is Anti American. Its Bush, even if he gets no votes!

http://www.4ourdegrees.net/nurple-america.gif

 

[ubertroll]

Just moving the thread back to its original intent...I think the Ohio numbers are about right--for now. One thing that works against Bush here is 14 years of Republican control of the state. The GOP has been running Ohio so long that they've gone from campaigning against fear of Democratic tax increases to increasing taxes themselves. If you're pissed off about the way things are, there's only one party you can blame.

Not to mention it's Dennis Kucinich's home state. That bugger's a demon on the campaign trail, as we've all seen. He's got more delegates than any other candidate still in the race, other than Kerry. lol

 

[Ham Murabi]

Actually, Bush's own lawyers successfully threw out more absantee ballots than Gore's people did.

The New York Times did an in-depth statistical analysis of the absantee ballots precinct by precinct.

Really, Ham, try to keep up.

The statistical analysis (actually it was a hand count) by any number of news organizations working together still showed Bush winning the popular vote in Florida.
By the way, have you ever heard of a candidate challenging the results in precincts where he won?

 

[ubertroll]

Re: Kerry is Anti American. Its Bush, even if he gets no votes!

http://www.4ourdegrees.net/nurple-america.gif

Really. So the man who put his life to the hazard, fighting with valor in Vietnam, and then devoted his life to public service, did it because he's anti-American?

Astounding. By that logic, since I really like cunnilingus, I must be a homosexual. Interesting.

 

[ubertroll]

The statistical analysis (actually it was a hand count) by any number of news organizations working together still showed Bush winning the popular vote in Florida.

Reread my post. I referred to the NYT's analysis of the rates of absantee ballot inclusion, precinct by precinct, in Florida. Approximately 20% of illegal ballots were excluded in GOP districts [which can be attributed to Democratic lawyers], compared with roughly 80% in Democratic districts [which can be attributed to GOP lawyers].

So how, exactly, was Gore painted as trying to disenfranchise the military? I mean, other than Bush's consistant pattern of telling the exact opposite of the truth, using FOX News as a speakerphone thereof [since it lacks all forms of jouranlistic ethics]

 

[busybody..]

http://homepage.mac.com/cfj/.Pictures/pests2.jpg

 

[busybody..]

http://www.comics.com/editoons/holbert/archive/images/holbert2004610020325.gif

 

[ubertroll]

http://homepage.mac.com/cfj/.Pictures/pests2.jpg

Kinda funny, considering that Bush's family inherited vastly vastly more money than Kerry's. [Of course, Kerry's WIFE is rich as shit, but he can't and won't use that for his campaign]


Not to mention that Bush is far less articulate.

 

[Ham Murabi]

Reread my post. I referred to the NYT's analysis of the rates of absantee ballot inclusion, precinct by precinct, in Florida. Approximately 20% of illegal ballots were excluded in GOP districts [which can be attributed to Democratic lawyers], compared with roughly 80% in Democratic districts [which can be attributed to GOP lawyers].

So how, exactly, was Gore painted as trying to disenfranchise the military? I mean, other than Bush's consistant pattern of telling the exact opposite of the truth, using FOX News as a speakerphone thereof [since it lacks all forms of jouranlistic ethics]

Actually, I first heard about Gore's attorney's trying diligently trying to throw out every military absentee ballot on National Public Radio. According to NPR they were wildly successful.
As for Fox News, I didn't have access to it in 2000. I do now, but seldom watch it.
I prefer reading my news.

 

[busybody..]

Re: Re: Kerry is Anti American. Its Bush, even if he gets no votes!

Really. So the man who put his life to the hazard, fighting with valor in Vietnam, and then devoted his life to public service, did it because he's anti-American?

Astounding. By that logic, since I really like cunnilingus, I must be a homosexual. Interesting.

http://cagle.slate.msn.com//news/Kerry/Kerrygifs/Kerry-war/asay3.gif

 

[busybody..]

http://cagle.slate.msn.com//news/Kerry/Kerrygifs/Kerry-primaries/siers.gif

 

[busybody..]

http://cagle.slate.msn.com//news/Kerry/Kerrygifs/Kerry-misc/asay.gif