Good news from The Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/

¡Discuss!

That is good news from the Atlantic, but here on the Pacific and the inland Northwest, schools ARE super-spreaders, sadly. The daily number of cases here has skyrocketed after two months of decline, ever since schools opened.
I think it depends on the region.

Well, we are under a restricted lockdown. Our numbers keep going up.
School started 4 weeks ago.
Coincidence?

Not all. Your instinct that this spike concurrent with lockdown not being coincidental is right on!

Lockdowns do cause spikes in cases, so you instinct is correct! During NYCs most severe portion of their lockdown 2/3 of all hospitalizations came from patients who had been isolating and were not out and about as essential workers. Encouraging people to shelter-in-place leads to more time for the virus to concentrate in households as the virus makes it's way from one tight circle of careful intimates to the next through the intersections between these small groups. Good question!

. . . but let's stick to the subject at hand. Actual studies with actual contact tracing and follow-up are confirming that children are not good vectors for the virus, groundless speculation about apparent correlation and conflation of positive tests with actual cases of illness notwithstanding.

Conager said:

Not all. Your instinct that this spike concurrent with lockdown not being coincidental is right on!

Lockdowns do cause spikes in cases, so you instinct is correct! During NYCs most severe portion of their lockdown 2/3 of all hospitalizations came from patients who had been isolating and were not out and about as essential workers. Encouraging people to shelter-in-place leads to more time for the virus to concentrate in households as the virus makes it's way from one tight circle of careful intimates to the next through the intersections between these small groups. Good question!

. . . but let's stick to the subject at hand. Actual studies with actual contact tracing and follow-up are confirming that children are not good vectors for the virus, groundless speculation about apparent correlation and conflation of positive tests with actual cases of illness notwithstanding.

Click to expand...

Our number increased before lockdown. And it’s just a lockdown with restrictions. School is still happening.

You are talking cases. Cases are meaningless as a metric of health. That just means positive results on a test. Doesn't mean you're actually sick. Doesn't mean you have enough of the virus to actually spread it. Just means you went, you got tested you have some remnant of the virus in you.

Fresh air is a factor. AZ spiked when the heat drove everyone inside. We now have beautiful weather. People are now enjoying the outdoors and hospitalizations are way down.

But again, let's celebrate the good news. I realize fear gives you the tingles, and I am not kink-shaming but let's focus here:

The good news is kids are not getting sick, they are not spreading it to their teachers and families.

Yay!

Dr. Conager listens to esteemed Doctor Emily Oster who is an "Economist at Brown University." Oh dear.

Yeah, right, and masks don’t work at all. We’ve heard your low info bullshit and rejected it before.

"I don’t understand your level of stupidity but I do admire your commitment to it."

Repeat
Repeat
Repeat

By "rejected" you mean, "NuH, Uhhhh!" which is all any of you fear-mongers have. I have actual studies, actual statistics, actual analysis. You have the occasional doctor making completely unsupported gross generalizations of "everyone knows."

Biden has already declared that this will be over November 11th.

Your meaningless deflections aside, let's stick with the good news. Children are poor vectors for this disease!

Conager said:

Biden has already declared that this will be over November 11th.

Click to expand...

I didn't think I was too smart until I got on the interwebs and ran into you people. Y'all are entertaining though. Don't quit your day job... oh, wait, this IS your day job.

Conager said:

By "rejected" you mean, "NuH, Uhhhh!" which is all any of you fear-mongers have. I have actual studies, actual statistics, actual analysis. You have the occasional doctor making completely unsupported gross generalizations of "everyone knows."

Biden has already declared that this will be over November 11th.

Your meaningless deflections aside, let's stick with the good news. Children are poor vectors for this disease!

Click to expand...

Occasional doctor = just about every infectious disease specialist around, including those who work for Trump

Weird.

Progressives, who have insisted on politicizing this pandemic, find good news about the lack.pf spread of the virus to he "political."

My source is The Atlantic that leans left and just about everyone who is on the left believes ti be apolitical.

Very telling.

A large study out if New Delhi seems to support this notion that for some unknown reason, only between 6 to 8% of people spread the vast majority of cases.

Source:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...ving-covid-19-cases-in-india-huge-study-finds

It is unknown as of yet why this is.

I'm glad if this is in fact the case. Kids do need to go back to school. I'm also cautious. Since schools are now open and fall like weather with the corresponding move to more indoor living is taking place, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Conager said:

Weird.

Progressives, who have insisted on politicizing this pandemic, find good news about the lack.pf spread of the virus to he "political."

My source is The Atlantic that leans left and just about everyone who is on the left believes ti be apolitical.

Very telling.

Click to expand...

You should start your own message board, loser.

PaxNurgle said:

That is good news from the Atlantic, but here on the Pacific and the inland Northwest, schools ARE super-spreaders, sadly. The daily number of cases here has skyrocketed after two months of decline, ever since schools opened.
I think it depends on the region.

Click to expand...

I want to believe this was a joke but there is no doubt in my mind that you were serious.

WillJ8787 said:

A large study out if New Delhi seems to support this notion that for some unknown reason, only between 6 to 8% of people spread the vast majority of cases.

Source:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...ving-covid-19-cases-in-india-huge-study-finds

It is unknown as of yet why this is.

I'm glad if this is in fact the case. Kids do need to go back to school. I'm also cautious. Since schools are now open and fall like weather with the corresponding move to more indoor living is taking place, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Click to expand...

Viral load, and viral shed.

You can't shed a goodly quantity of virus if you're not caring a high viral load and for some reason, some people shed them more aggressively. Maybe something different about the lung tissue? Bad analogy, but some people have dandruff worse than others.

The work on super spreaders is very interesting. It points out that it's more important to trace backwards and find the super spreaders and then forward trying to contract trace each case.

Most people even active cases do not spread it to very many people as you correctly point out. Only 30% of spouses spread it to their significant other. That's plenty of contact, no spread 2/3 of the time. This means that trying to do contact tracing on every case is very intensive and often fairly wasted effort. You want to quarantine people who are likely infected right away but you don't want to quarantine every single human being the came in contact with anyone that had it. That would mean everyone quarantine all the time.

If you can trace back and find a super spreader those are the contacts going forward that you want to get quarantined quick. If you can find a super spreader in the early stages of spreading that's where the best use a resources is.

It was the point that I made months ago that it's not just simple arithmetic you can't just figure out okay ....we have got so many cases that's going to lead to so many other cases which is going to leave the so many deaths and so on. It matters what sort of case you have. Is the person merely been exposed and is showing a positive test but not actually sick or do they have a high viral load and are they shedding?