What does this American election mean for the Russia-Ukraine war?
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BabyBoomer50s
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Define “winning” and provide a time frame.
TastySuckToy
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Trump's definition, which is "we need to stop the killing", and his timeline, which is "immediately".
To Putin, winning means installing a pro-Russia government in Kyiv, which was his goal from the beginning.
To Ukraine, winning means Putin giving up on that and breaking off hostilities. It does not necessarily mean recovering all the territory Russia grabbed in 2014 -- Zelenskyy has said he won't accept any peace that allows Russia to keep it, but he could retreat from that position and still call the peace a victory.
The time frame is -- as long as it takes for either of the above two results to be achieved.
To Ukraine, winning means Putin giving up on that and breaking off hostilities. It does not necessarily mean recovering all the territory Russia grabbed in 2014 -- Zelenskyy has said he won't accept any peace that allows Russia to keep it, but he could retreat from that position and still call the peace a victory.
The time frame is -- as long as it takes for either of the above two results to be achieved.
BabyBoomer50s
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Ok, thanks. Neither side has won yet and as the 3 year anniversary of the invasion approaches, there haven’t been signs of the stalemate ending soon. A change of US leadership will hopefully get this wrapped up with a negotiated settlement both sides can live with.
DonOld basically continued the Obama policy against ISIS and claimed it was his own, then abandoned the Kurds when it was convenient (See also: Afghanistan and the Afghan government.)
DonOld will continue President Biden’s policies and then abandon Ukraine when it’s convenient to Putin and himself to do so. (Members of NATO understands the pattern that has developed in DonOld’s foreign policy "strategy" and are preparing for an “America-less NATO future”.)
Ukraine’s only chance is quickly developing (with some sympathetic European’s assistance?) a clandestine nuke or an arsenal of dirty bombs and ordering Russia out of ALL its territory with a “Captain Kirk - Fuck it - Enterprise self-destruct level gambit”. (Ukraine would really have nothing to lose - and Russia might understand that and back down.)
Side note:
Somebody has to stand up to Putin and Russia - and it sure as hell isn’t going to be DonOld.
Slava Ukraini!!!
DonOld will continue President Biden’s policies and then abandon Ukraine when it’s convenient to Putin and himself to do so. (Members of NATO understands the pattern that has developed in DonOld’s foreign policy "strategy" and are preparing for an “America-less NATO future”.)
Ukraine’s only chance is quickly developing (with some sympathetic European’s assistance?) a clandestine nuke or an arsenal of dirty bombs and ordering Russia out of ALL its territory with a “Captain Kirk - Fuck it - Enterprise self-destruct level gambit”. (Ukraine would really have nothing to lose - and Russia might understand that and back down.)
Side note:
Somebody has to stand up to Putin and Russia - and it sure as hell isn’t going to be DonOld.
Slava Ukraini!!!
Does Trump even want a negotiated settlement both sides can live with?
BabyBoomer50s
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He said he does. Time will tell. Maybe the current administration will get something done in the next two months.
D
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There chances of Ukraine winning the war remain the same as always. Zero. Nobody wins with war. But the war will be over by this time next year. A year from now ask me how I knew that.
MajorRewrite
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No, of course not. Trump’s only intent is to enable Putin to finalize his annexation of Ukraine.
Trump will call Putin’s victory “peace”, and Russia’s oligarchs will divide up Ukraine’s land and natural resources.
Well, that ain't gonna happen.
Could you re-word that sentence? It makes no sense.
Rightguide
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They've already lost. Peace talks are eminent.
Putin hasn't won until there is a pro-Russian puppet regime in Kyiv.
Rightguide
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Dearelliot
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I suppose, The Ukraine will eventually be taken over by Russia, and Putin will take his time deciding on what will be the next country to invade. He wont waste much time since he knows he only has four more years to do it.
ishtat
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The USA should pursue a policy which supports its own interests. The USA would prefer a weak impoverished Russia and the current war is doing a good job in that respect. The longer it continues at the current level the more likely that result. Ukraine is trying to maintain its independence but in real politik they do not matter much. The war is however helping to put a floor under wheat prices (because of the diminution of Ukraine production) because that benefits the two biggest producers China and USA. Gettting rid of the German Chancellor Scholz is positive for Ukraine as the new guy is not an appeaser like Scholz. Deaths are unfortunate but not determinative. The current rate of about 250,000pa is a satisfactory price to pay, especially as the west is not paying.
China and India will continue to enjoy cheap Russian oil and Russia has lost its dominance of the Central Asian 'Stans' to China at zero cost to Beijing
If Putin gets even the slightest hint of a win he will immediately interfere further in Transnistria (Russian occupied Moldova). Putin has no interest in peace and will exploit any 'settlement' for further expansion.
Continuation of a stalemate for another year or two is probably the best result for US and Western interests. Europe is doing fairly well in opposing Putin but the Germans in particular have not been doing enough.
China and India will continue to enjoy cheap Russian oil and Russia has lost its dominance of the Central Asian 'Stans' to China at zero cost to Beijing
If Putin gets even the slightest hint of a win he will immediately interfere further in Transnistria (Russian occupied Moldova). Putin has no interest in peace and will exploit any 'settlement' for further expansion.
Continuation of a stalemate for another year or two is probably the best result for US and Western interests. Europe is doing fairly well in opposing Putin but the Germans in particular have not been doing enough.
Rightguide
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Russia does not want to rule Ukraine but it will not allow a NATO force stationed on their soil. I suspect when it's all over Zelensky will be gone and Ukraine will either be neutral like Austria, or it will become a rump-state of Russia.
