Ann Selzer predicts Iowa going for..........Kamala Harris?

[RobDownSouth]

Iowa pollster Ann Selzer predicts the state of Iowa will be won by Kamala Harris next Tuesday.

Iowa? Kamala Harris?

And why should we pay attention to some local pollster named Ann Seltzer?

Here's why:

Ann Selzer's poll is considered the gold standard for the state. She was the first pollster to identify Obama's surge in the 2008 Iowa primaries and his eventual win there. She absolutely nailed Trump's sudden dominance in the state in 2016, despite Obama winning it in both 2008 and 2012. In 2020 she again nailed the state, finding Trump up 10 points, almost exactly his actual 9-point victory in the actual election. It's possible that she is off this year, but she has been within two points of the actual margin of victory in Iowa in every single election I know of, including both midterm Senate elections and presidential election years.

Iowa is only one state, but the midwestern swing states (IA, MN, WI, MI) often move as a bloc, since their demographic profiles are quite similar. If it is the case that Harris is ahead in Iowa, the most conservative of the midwestern states, that would portend potential disaster for Trump, as that would almost certainly mean she's also going to win at least the other three states, and possibly others if that's indicative of the national voting trend. If that does end up being borne out on Tuesday, there is almost no path to victory for Trump.

Seems like women over the age of 65 are quite upset about their hard won freedoms being discarded by Supreme Court whim in America's heartland.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c2dlen5w91zo

 

[ll74]

Heard a out this one earlier today...made me laugh.

I think this will be true. Florida will go for Harris. new York and California will go for 45.

Should be a fun night

 

[RobDownSouth]

Heard a out this one earlier today...made me laugh.

I think this will be true.

Quotin' for posterity.

Gonna stay up late on Tuesday evening?

Gotta final prediction for us?

 

[ll74]

Quotin' for posterity.

Gonna stay up late on Tuesday evening?

Gotta final prediction for us?

States that aren't in play, won't miraculously be in play.

PA, GA, NC, AZ, MI, WI - those are the votes that matter.

Everything else is fodder for the BS.

 

[RobDownSouth]

States that aren't in play, won't miraculously be in play.

PA, GA, NC, AZ, MI, WI - those are the votes that matter.

Everything else is fodder for the BS.

Quotin' this one for posterity too.

Come Wednesday morning, one of us is gonna look silly.

 

[ll74]

Quotin' this one for posterity too.

Come Wednesday morning, one of us is gonna look silly.

I have no issue if I end up being wrong. It's not likely.. Ohio used to be a swing state.

There were people suggesting Texas and California were in play ....there's a threshold of bullshit here that my rhetoric is aimed at.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Nate Silver hedges his bets....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1852850011899322526

 

[RobDownSouth]

I have no issue if I end up being wrong. It's not likely.. Ohio used to be a swing state.

There were people suggesting Texas and California were in play ....there's a threshold of bullshit here that my rhetoric is aimed at.

Re: Texas and California
Trump will win Texas, but I have serious doubts that his coattails will be long enough to salvage Eduardo Rafael Cruz's senate bid. Colin Allred has run a masterful campaign, and Texas Republicans are reduced to running ads from schoolgirls not wanting to compete against transgenders.

California: my understanding is that California has newly created House seats, and the gerrymander-free allocation process enshrined into law might give the Inland Empire region (California's red oasis in an ocean of blue) one or two new Republican seats which might be enough to tip the House Red in 2024. I might be mistaken.

Harris will win California, regardless. Just as the ancient scrolls predicted.

 

[Rightguide]

Anyone watching Michigan? Mike Rogers has pulled ahead of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin. If it lasts it could be a harbinger of doom for the Democrats.

 

[ll74]

Re: Texas and California
Trump will win Texas, but I have serious doubts that his coattails will be long enough to salvage Eduardo Rafael Cruz's senate bid. Colin Allred has run a masterful campaign, and Texas Republicans are reduced to running ads from schoolgirls not wanting to compete against transgenders.

I think Cruz overwhelmingly wins that race.

California: my understanding is that California has newly created House seats, and the gerrymander-free allocation process enshrined into law might give the Inland Empire region (California's red oasis in an ocean of blue) one or two new Republican seats which might be enough to tip the House Red in 2024. I might be mistaken.

Republicans will gain seats in the house.

Harris will win California, regardless. Just as the ancient scrolls predicted.

Always the first west coast state to be called. I think it's probably the easiest state to call

 

[SevMax2]

My most recent scenario, factoring in Iowa and the recent trend away from Trump by Latinos in Pennsylvania, is that Harris wins this by 276-262. Not a landslide, but still a little wiggle room (just not much).

 

[Noitall]

Team CamelHU sent exactly no one to boost that apparent advantage in Iowa -- not herself or TamponTim, who lives next door to Iowa, not their respective spouses, and not their big-name surrogates. If this had any basis in reality, they would have flooded the zone this weekend.

 

[Rightguide]

Breaking out of Iowa:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853134627189428312

 

[MajorRewrite]

Nate Silver hedges his bets....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1852850011899322526

What kind of a weirdo thinks it’s “incredibly gutsy” to release the results of a poll?

 

[adrina]

What kind of a weirdo thinks it’s “incredibly gutsy” to release the results of a poll?

One who engages in poll herding.

 

[RobDownSouth]

"Iowa Fever" now spreading to.....Kansas?
While not the 2:1 advantage in Iowa, women in Kansas over 65 (i.e. a large portion of Trump's base) are polling 3:2 to Harris in the final Kansas Speaks poll.
https://i.imgur.com/rXtVN7Y.png

 

[SevMax2]

"Iowa Fever" now spreading to.....Kansas?
While not the 2:1 advantage in Iowa, women in Kansas over 65 (i.e. a large portion of Trump's base) are polling 3:2 to Harris in the final Kansas Speaks poll.
https://i.imgur.com/rXtVN7Y.png

Not only most likely to vote, but also most likely to volunteer at poll offices. The vast majority of poll workers in my small Texas town, for instance, and this was true in nearly every jurisdiction in which I've ever voted, have been older women. You can pick on them for other flaws, but lack of civic virtue isn't one of them.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Breaking out of Iowa:

The Iowa Youth Straw Poll is a mock election held at ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, MIDDLE SCHOOLS and HIGH SCHOOLS in Iowa. This year, HOMESKOOL students can "vote" too!

There is not one single registered voter in your poll above.

You REALLY had to dig deep to find any sort of "good news" for Trump in Iowa, didn't you?

 

[MajorRewrite]

"Iowa Fever" now spreading to.....Kansas?
While not the 2:1 advantage in Iowa, women in Kansas over 65 (i.e. a large portion of Trump's base) are polling 3:2 to Harris in the final Kansas Speaks poll.
https://i.imgur.com/rXtVN7Y.png

It will be interesting and kind of amusing if senior citizens win the election for Harris.

 

[RobDownSouth]

It will be interesting and kind of amusing if senior citizens win the election for Harris.

Let's hope so. Trump losing via defections in his core Boomer demographic would be delicious irony and a perfect coda to Trump's political fall.

 

[IARainman]

I’m in Iowa and I’ve heard this and have a hard time believing this. Anecdotally, from a personal prospective I’ve had and have heard some others having conversations of traditional Republican voters (especially women) considering voting Harris. But it certainly hasn’t been a groundswell.

Of more interest are Iowa District 1 and 2, that are potential flips to Blue. Iowa 1 was a super tight race 2 years ago This year there was a libertarian candidate kicked off the ballot for a technicality. So it remains to be seen how their supporters will react at the polls. District 2 is a bit of a 3 way race with an independent candidate. But it seems like the power of incumbency will probably carry that one red.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Trump, as usual, proclaims his victimhood in the wake of an unfavorable Iowa poll

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853128320281628679

 

[Politruk]

This is probably because Iowa has imposed a 6-week abortion ban.

 

[Lazaran]

The Iowa Youth Straw Poll is a mock election held at ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, MIDDLE SCHOOLS and HIGH SCHOOLS in Iowa. This year, HOMESKOOL students can "vote" too!

There is not one single registered voter in your poll above.

You REALLY had to dig deep to find any sort of "good news" for Trump in Iowa, didn't you?

Weird (and creepy) that Scat-man is stalking the underage youth vote.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Weird (and creepy) that Scat-man is stalking the underage youth vote.

A cognitive decline, mayhaps?

Nah, he was just searchin' high and low for a poll....ANY poll... he could use to refudiate me.

I seriously doubt he looked at the article, he just found a headline that appeared to support his preconceived political bias.

That's what he does. That's what he always does.

SAD.