On vote watching. What is probably really happening behind the curtain...

[ShelbyDawn57]

We've had a lot of threads lately on the topic of uno-bombing and dropping vote scores. I thought the following graph might help put score changes into perspective.
Assuming a perfect 5 at 100 votes. the chart below shows the impact of the next fifteen votes ranging from 5 - 1. Votes are rounded up using whatever method Excel uses to do that.
Use it for what you will, but doing some of this math has led me to believe I'm probably not being uno-bombed, but am rather just getting some fours and probably a few threes in there.

 

[SouthernCrossfire]

Good explanation and chart, ShelbyDawn. To further illustrate, you might consider posting a couple of other baselines, with the effects of the same votes when starting with a perfect 5 at, say, 10 votes, 25 votes, and maybe even 50 votes. Thanks!

 

[ShelbyDawn57]

Good explanation and chart, ShelbyDawn. To further illustrate, you might consider posting a couple of other baselines, with the effects of the same votes when starting with a perfect 5 at, say, 10 votes, 25 votes, and maybe even 50 votes. Thanks!

I'm pretty sure people can extrapolate those numbers with some simple math and get close enough.
(5 - 4.48)/15 = ~ 0.034 change per one vote.

 

[SouthernCrossfire]

I'm pretty sure people can extrapolate those numbers with some simple math and get close enough.
(5 - 4.48)/15 = ~ 0.034 change per one vote.

That's true, but I'm talking about showing the effects of votes at different starting points, not different numbers of additional votes above the initial 100 used in your chart above. Sorry I wasn't clear on that.

For instance, if you have 10 5* votes to begin, vote 11 at 4* drops the score to 4.91, whereas if vote 11 is a 1* vote, the score drops to 4.64.

 

[TheLobster]

When I read through all this fascinating discourse about what's essentially random numbers, I can't help but think of baseball.

 

[onehitwanda]

When I read through all this fascinating discourse about what's essentially random numbers, I can't help but think of baseball.

Ah, but they aren't random. There are two great attractors - one near 5 and the other near 1. It's like our own version of the double-slit† experiment.

† snigger

 

[Five_Inch_Heels]

More like Jarts.


Or my method of hunt and peck 'typing'.



Sometimes I come close to getting something sort of near correct.

 

[StillStunned]

Ah, but they aren't random. There are two great attractors - one near 5 and the other near 1. It's like our own version of the double-slit† experiment.

† snigger

I'm confused. Which slit is the 5, and which is the 1? Or is that one of those mysteries men were not meant to know?

 

[AwkwardlySet]

We've had a lot of threads lately on the topic of uno-bombing and dropping vote scores. I thought the following graph might help put score changes into perspective.
Assuming a perfect 5 at 100 votes. the chart below shows the impact of the next fifteen votes ranging from 5 - 1. Votes are rounded up using whatever method Excel uses to do that.
Use it for what you will, but doing some of this math has led me to believe I'm probably not being uno-bombed, but am rather just getting some fours and probably a few threes in there.


View attachment 2417260

Assuming you aren't fixated on your Control Panel and thus aren't tracking each individual vote, you can't possibly know whether the last three votes on a story of yours were, say, 4-4-3 or 5-5-1. Even when you actually track each individual vote, sometimes you can't be certain due to the rounding effect that Literotica uses, which is as far as I have seen, exactly like in Excel.
To explain, say the value of some variable is 4.7441. When Excel displays the value in a cell, it usually does so by displaying the rounded value, which in this case is 4.74 (Excel uses standard mathematical rounding rules). But when Excel, say, multiplies something by that variable, or does any other calculation with it, the exact value - 4.7441 will be used. So due to the effect that the additional decimals have, you can't always predict things properly, unless of course you can see all the decimals. In Excel, you can obviously see them but on Literotica you can't and that makes some difference.

This math is fun but once again, bloody hell, authors seem to be obsessed with these easily abused and questionable scores.

 

[SouthernCrossfire]

I think the point of the numbers in this case is that too many times authors blame someone for one-bombing them without understanding how the current score, the number of current votes, and an added score will affect the new score. When a story doesn't have a lot of votes, even a 3 or 4* vote may cause a large drop in score.

 

[SimonDoom]

Assuming you aren't fixated on your Control Panel and thus aren't tracking each individual vote, you can't possibly know whether the last three votes on a story of yours were, say, 4-4-3 or 5-5-1. Even when you actually track each individual vote, sometimes you can't be certain due to the rounding effect that Literotica uses, which is as far as I have seen, exactly like in Excel.
To explain, say the value of some variable is 4.7441. When Excel displays the value in a cell, it usually does so by displaying the rounded value, which in this case is 4.74 (Excel uses standard mathematical rounding rules). But when Excel, say, multiplies something by that variable, or does any other calculation with it, the exact value - 4.7441 will be used. So due to the effect that the additional decimals have, you can't always predict things properly, unless of course you can see all the decimals. In Excel, you can obviously see them but on Literotica you can't and that makes some difference.

This math is fun but once again, bloody hell, authors seem to be obsessed with these easily abused and questionable scores.

I think the story data is fun in a kind of long-term, ongoing way, but trying to guess exactly what's happening on a moment by moment basis just makes me cross eyed.

 

[alohadave]

I think the story data is fun in a kind of long-term, ongoing way, but trying to guess exactly what's happening on a moment by moment basis just makes me cross eyed.

I track weekly, and it's mostly to see how things trend.

One thing that I've found interesting is that when a new story is posted, there is always some activity on other stories.

 

[SimonDoom]

I track weekly, and it's mostly to see how things trend.

One thing that I've found interesting is that when a new story is posted, there is always some activity on other stories.

Yes, exactly. That's USEFUL data. It's especially true if you post a new story in a category in which you've posted stories before. All those stories will get a boost. If I post a story that does reasonably well in I/T, then all my I/T stories will get a substantial boost, and the boost may last for as long as a week.

On the other hand, when I post a story in a lesser-read category, there's very little boost to other story views, and the boost only lasts for a day or so.

I've noticed that since I haven't posted a full length story in over a year my daily view counts have gone down across the board, except for one I/T story. If you keep regularly posting you will get eyeballs on your stories and can keep view counts up. If you stop, the view counts will go down, UNLESS your stories start rising on "similar story" lists, which will counteract the declining views phenomenon.

 

[Writer61]

I keep track of stats in a spreadsheet that I update most weeks.

I'm not sure that there is any value in doing so but it is interesting. Seeing how scores develop across multi-part stories or in different categories might be useful.

 

[Cagivagurl]

Thanks Shelby,
I think it highlights that it's not always as we think.
The world may not be as dark as we thought it was...
Makes you think, and that's always a good thing.

Cagivagurl

 

[SimonDoom]

What happens behind the curtain:

 

[Jackie.Hikaru]

double-slit† experiment.

 

[VallesMarineris]

I'm probably not being uno-bombed, but am rather just getting some fours and probably a few threes in there.

I've been following my latest series as I've published individual chapters. The story is in the Mind Control category, which gets little enough attention that I've been able to follow daily rating data changes and reverse calculate the number of stars each responding reader gave me. Here's the tabulation so far (I didn't start tracking until chapter 2):


The "hits" column for each chapter records the number of readers who have given me the rating listed in the Stars column. Thus, for example, the Ch2 subtotal of 135 in the first row = 27 hits x 5 stars. And the Ch2 rating = 166/36.

As you can see, I have definitely been getting 1-bombed. I watched each one happen, often very soon after the story was published. Oh well. Haters gonna hate.

This series (https://literotica.com/s/ai-era-a-nerd-girls-story-ch-01) is about a very nerdy young woman, so at some readers' requests I published a glossary of technical terms and other specialty terms she uses. As you can see, it's not getting nearly the attention of the chapters (which I expected) and I guess my Unabomber has not deigned to blast it. Or maybe not yet.

Chapter 5 is due out soon. I'll update if I see anything interesting.

VM

 

[Writer61]

As you can see, I have definitely been getting 1-bombed.

Actually we can't see that. Other combinations (e.g. 22 x 5* + 14 x 4*) gives the same result for Ch2.

Not saying that you have not been 1-bombed, just that the numbers don't show it.

 

[MrPixel]

:exasperated_sigh:

All this analysis of scoring is well and good for those of you publishing in popular categories. I write mostly in Group Sex, which is more or less a ghost town. If a story garners 8 or 9 total votes in the week it's on the "new" list, it's doing quite well. A "popular" story that's been on for a year or two might have 15-20 votes total. 100+ votes? Dream on.

So malicious 1-bombs (I have a fan club) seriously affect the score. Typical scenario for a new work is 5-5-5-5-4-5-1, that last "vote" taking it from a 4.83 (yay!) to a 4.29 (...hmm...). The most recent was something like 5-5-5-4-4-5 when the Romanian judge flipped their card over for a 1.

What bothers me is the reader being aware of the score average when they vote. I've noticed a phenomenon that scores become "baked-in", where the current average, warts and all, influences how they vote. Recent story was bombed down to a 4.0, and guess what? Votes after that point were all 4s.

If scores weren't so predictive of user interest in stories it wouldn't bug me. It mostly doesn't, anyway, since I write for my own enjoyment; if somebody else likes the story, that's super, and thank you. But the malicious score hits are vandalism, pure and simple, which tends to reduce the already sparse reader interest. They're not going to take the time to discern that some jackass has spray-painted their tag on the side of the building, nor is "the system" equipped to adequately deal with the unwarranted malevolence.

So there. YMMV.

 

[StillStunned]

:exasperated_sigh:

All this analysis of scoring is well and good for those of you publishing in popular categories. I write mostly in Group Sex, which is more or less a ghost town. If a story garners 8 or 9 total votes in the week it's on the "new" list, it's doing quite well. A "popular" story that's been on for a year or two might have 15-20 votes total. 100+ votes? Dream on.

Not trying to contradict your greater experience with the category, but...


That's in just over a year.

But otherwise, I get what you're saying. SF&F? If you're lucky, 4k views, and a few dozen votes. And once the average stabilises, it rarely goes up or down by much, and never for very long.

 

[AwkwardlySet]

But otherwise, I get what you're saying. SF&F? If you're lucky, 4k views, and a few dozen votes. And once the average stabilises, it rarely goes up or down by much, and never for very long.

Well, not to contradict you, but SciFi & Fantasy is actually a very good category when it comes to feedback.


And all this even if I have tags and warnings about femdom that, judging by the feedback from the first time around, is offputting to many readers who like high fantasy, heroic MCs, and such. So all things considered, it's a decent response considering the size of that category. But write a dominant male MC harem-breeding-isekai or such, or some juicy futanari series, and you can get much more than what I got.

 

[StillStunned]

Well, not to contradict you, but SciFi & Fantasy is actually a very good category when it comes to feedback.

I must be doing something wrong. But I suppose grim post-apocalyptic sci-fi and sword & sorcery aren't really bestselling genres in mainstream publishing either.

Time to write D&D erotica then, I suppose.

 

[ShelbyDawn57]

Well, not to contradict you, but SciFi & Fantasy is actually a very good category when it comes to feedback.

View attachment 2417952
And all this even if I have tags and warnings about femdom that, judging by the feedback from the first time around, is offputting to many readers who like high fantasy, heroic MCs, and such. So all things considered, it's a decent response considering the size of that category. But write a dominant male MC harem-breeding-isekai or such, or some juicy futanari series, and you can get much more than what I got.

Got to agree with Awkward on this one. My series isn't doing too bad. I just need to kick the author in the ass and get that third chapter out, as there are at least two more after it.

 

[StillStunned]

Time to write D&D erotica then, I suppose.

Dwarves and gnomes in the high mountains. "Dicks & Dirndls".