Vacate Watch - Speaker Mike Johnson (R - LA)

[ll74]

Jordan has already collected 3 votes in the second ballot.

Watch and learn

The House is currently in recess.

 

[Bn2f]

LaMalfa has said yes. I do not know the other 2. Gimenez says no...

Still think McCarthy will win out tonight

I’m not trying to argue. I’m just trying to understand the end game to you wanting democrats to help the republicans.

 

[Sean Renaud]

I think simplest answer to wanting the Dems to at least make an offer is that we're not that far out from when we need to pass a budget. You can only kick that can so far down the road.

 

[Bn2f]

I think simplest answer to wanting the Dems to at least make an offer is that we're not that far out from when we need to pass a budget. You can only kick that can so far down the road.

Ok. I’m for that but correct me if I’m wrong but have republicans put forth a budget? I believe we know what the fringe won’t fund and those are nonstarters for democrats and wouldn’t get the votes from moderate republicans. A budget by democrats would most likely pass but McCarthy can’t bring that to the floor. This congress has been the least effective in history. Everything breaks down into a microcosm of what we are seeing now in the speakership vote. If McCarthy wins back the gavel he faces having to fund the government which was the catalyst of all this nonsense to begin with.

 

[ll74]

I think simplest answer to wanting the Dems to at least make an offer is that we're not that far out from when we need to pass a budget. You can only kick that can so far down the road.

Democrats made an offer to McCarthy and he told them no.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Democrats made an offer to McCarthy and he told them no.

What was the offer?

 

[ll74]

What was the offer?

The details weren't made public. My guess is they wanted certain guarantees. Word is that McCarthy didn't want to be seen as being supported by Democrats.

 

[Bn2f]

My question to Dribble really is why is the onus on over 200 democrats to stand down for the good of country rather than getting 5 republicans to do the right thing and back Jeffries?

 

[Sean Renaud]

Ok. I’m for that but correct me if I’m wrong but have republicans put forth a budget? I believe we know what the fringe won’t fund and those are nonstarters for democrats and wouldn’t get the votes from moderate republicans. A budget by democrats would most likely pass but McCarthy can’t bring that to the floor. This congress has been the least effective in history. Everything breaks down into a microcosm of what we are seeing now in the speakership vote. If McCarthy wins back the gavel he faces having to fund the government which was the catalyst of all this nonsense to begin with.

Oh I completely agree with that. Honestly we are well past the point where Biden and other dems should be doing interviews just calling out the Right. One thing I've noticed over the years is that the Dems are terrible at two things. They suck at working the media. Additionally they suck at building up their bench. I mean I swear for every Dem that I can name Congress I can probably name two Republicans. We had to call Biden out of retirement because who else was gonna run?

 

[Bn2f]

The details weren't made public. My guess is they wanted certain guarantees. Word is that McCarthy didn't want to be seen as being supported by Democrats.

I thought I heard that Jeffries and democrats wanted their bills to be brought to floor for vote. I know! You can’t have a give and take starting with such an unreasonable demand.

 

[Bn2f]

From the head of the Republican Party to its bottom base - republicans don’t view democrats as a political equal. We are enemies. Even in this thread, who seems more concerned about the speakership? How could Jordan or Scalise bring any less bills to the floor? For republicans, it doesn’t matter who leads when less to no governing is the goal.

 

[butters]

for dems to work with repubs on electing a speaker, a republican speaker, they'd likely need assurances of power-sharing on committees and it'd be great to have an agreement not to shut the government down over disagreements but for the house to have to sit and work things out...do their jobs, in other words.

 

[butters]

fox news has, reportedly, been messaging members prior to the first vote to cast theirs for jordan

there've also been reports of members being threatened with 'vote jordan or get primaried'...calls have also gone out to the republican public to call their congress members and tell them to vote jordan, firing up the maga fruitcakes. I don't know how this will pan out: recalcitrant members have a choice between being targeted in primaries (and, potentially, be at threat from mag nutters) or seeing the house lost in '24 to the dems. I'd love to see them work out a deal and deny jordan, but with the Israeli-Gaza thing pressuring them and fear of magat retribution, i don't hold out a lot of hope for their spines.

 

[butters]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...1&cvid=b1fcf70a715f49f8f5f561117f3601ab&ei=15

After the vote, Republicans called a recess to regroup and eke out a path forward. Jordan, a co-founder of the far-right House Freedom Caucus and loyal ally of former President Donald Trump, indicated before the vote that he was willing to force multiple rounds: “Whatever it takes to get a speaker today.” Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., told the Times he expects another vote to elect a speaker on Tuesday.

The timing of a second round, however, depends on how long it takes Jordan to connect with his opposition, and its success may be less likely than before. “I personally know 5 will change their votes from yes to no on second round. That’s what they told me. This will get worse,” one House member told

so some may change yes to no, but then others may change in the other direction. Plus jordan only needs to lose 3 instead of four votes after the roll-call (If that's something that remains unchanged between 1st and 2nd vote.)

 

[Bn2f]

fox news has, reportedly, been messaging members prior to the first vote to cast theirs for jordan

there've also been reports of members being threatened with 'vote jordan or get primaried'...calls have also gone out to the republican public to call their congress members and tell them to vote jordan, firing up the maga fruitcakes. I don't know how this will pan out: recalcitrant members have a choice between being targeted in primaries (and, potentially, be at threat from mag nutters) or seeing the house lost in '24 to the dems. I'd love to see them work out a deal and deny jordan, but with the Israeli-Gaza thing pressuring them and fear of magat retribution, i don't hold out a lot of hope for their spines.

To SR’s point on the media and messaging - imagine if MSNBC or Democracy Now could blackmail and effectively sway democratic votes.

 

[Bray123]

fox news has, reportedly, been messaging members prior to the first vote to cast theirs for jordan

there've also been reports of members being threatened with 'vote jordan or get primaried'...calls have also gone out to the republican public to call their congress members and tell them to vote jordan, firing up the maga fruitcakes. I don't know how this will pan out: recalcitrant members have a choice between being targeted in primaries (and, potentially, be at threat from mag nutters) or seeing the house lost in '24 to the dems. I'd love to see them work out a deal and deny jordan, but with the Israeli-Gaza thing pressuring them and fear of magat retribution, i don't hold out a lot of hope for their spines.

Maybe those spineless members should be told, "Vote anyone but Jordan or get primaried." It can work both ways.

 

[LLCox]

If I were the dems I would vote against anyone they put up. It's what the repukes would do to make Them look incompetent. The dems have to be laughing their asses off. With the repukes in charge of the House NOTHING has happened but investigations to nowhere.

 

[ByteMe13]

fox news has, reportedly, been messaging members prior to the first vote to cast theirs for jordan

there've also been reports of members being threatened with 'vote jordan or get primaried'...calls have also gone out to the republican public to call their congress members and tell them to vote jordan, firing up the maga fruitcakes. I don't know how this will pan out: recalcitrant members have a choice between being targeted in primaries (and, potentially, be at threat from mag nutters) or seeing the house lost in '24 to the dems. I'd love to see them work out a deal and deny jordan, but with the Israeli-Gaza thing pressuring them and fear of magat retribution, i don't hold out a lot of hope for their spines.

I’m surprised the GOP hasn’t given Fox Noise a vote

 

[YDB95]

My question to Dribble really is why is the onus on over 200 democrats to stand down for the good of country rather than getting 5 republicans to do the right thing and back Jeffries?

Me too.
If I had to guess, perhaps Dribble is thinking - correctly - the Republicans either can't be trusted to do the right thing or don't even want the government to function anyway, whereas the Dems can and do. Which isn't wrong, but that doesn't make it any less absurd to blame them for not riding to the rescue of people who hate them.

 

[jaF0]

Tuff noogies GymmieJ.

Top Republicans Plan Jim Jordan Alternative​

GOP figures are calling for Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry to be granted more powers so the House can get back to passing legislation.


.

 

[ll74]

Another in support of increasing McHenry's power.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714433018897555723

 

[schism666]

 

[Dribble]

Tuff noogies GymmieJ.

Top Republicans Plan Jim Jordan Alternative​

GOP figures are calling for Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry to be granted more powers so the House can get back to passing legislation.


.

But that is opposed by roughly 20 Republicans...requiring help from Democrats. Democrats have added 3 stipulations for support. Two of them...the Republicans that would vote Yes would support. The first is a continuing resolution on our budget...to sometime next year. The second is aid to Israel. The third...will not be supported...nor should they support...that is allowing resolutions supported solely by a minority party to be brought to the floor for a vote. Now...if Democrats want to put in writing...they would honor a similar request...but that is a no go from the Democrat side.

The path forward...is through McCarthy. He has played this brilliantly...potentially removing his Party's far right wing from play. But what no one in Washington seems capable of answering...is if he would take the Position back? What we know...if he did...he would never work with anyone that voted him out...ever. Guess who that was.

 

[ll74]

It looks like a real possibility that McHenry will continue with expanded powers. That would be a win for Democrats if they secure these guarantees.

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/15/house-democrats-patrick-mchenry-gop-chaos

Zoom in: Kildee said there would need to be "some limitations" on what Congress could do under this arrangement — specifically not allowing Republicans to pursue party-line GOP legislation.

• "Democrats are not interested in just rescuing the Republicans from their own problems and have them go right back to business as usual as it was under McCarthy," he said

...

• In exchange for empowering McHenry for 15-day increments, they wrote, he would guarantee votes on government funding bills and aid packages for Ukraine and Israel.

...

 

[ll74]

Question - will they hold another vote for speaker or will it get replaced with a McHenry power add vote? Predictions?

Also, if a speaker vote is held again, what's your prediction?

I think Jordan is going to get 190 votes this go.