colddiesel
Literotica Guru
- Joined
- Aug 22, 2006
- Posts
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The war between Ukraine and Russia is, except for the Ukranians and Russians a good thing:
It has established unity in Europe, particularly Eastern Europe hitherto unthinkable; the Swedes and Finns have realized they cannot rely on smug declarations of moral superiority and have to choose a side. The Poles remain steadfast and the Czechs, Slovaks, Romanians, and Bulgars are firmly within the Western camp. The new German Chancellor likes an each way bet, but in accordance with Teutonic tradition is sending his best tanks into the conflict. The Brits are willing as arms suppliers and as a conduit for supplies; the French are as useful as ever. The USA has found a wonderful testing ground for its new armaments and an excellent place to send the second best(quite good enough for stroppy Russians). The arms industry gets to replace all the old stuff with bright and shiny, which makes them happy, and helps employment at home. And best of all no casualties to inflame the media- there might be a few refugees but that's the Europeans problem.
It has made it totally clear that Russia is no longer the great power it was, and is economically at least, a captive of China. China gets cheap oil, cheap resources and is rapidly milking Russia's foreign currency reserves particularly its US$ reserves.The absence of military supplies from China to Russia is interesting, clearly showing that stalemate is a reasonable outcome for China in the short to medium term. The Russians would like a capitulation but even if they got it, they are guaranteed a guerrilla war for the next 50 years at least. It would be an Irish settlement, one where peace is declared and the children and grandchildren keep up the killing.
The Russians and Ukranians are making a contribution roughly 100,000 dead, plus or minus a few per annum; but in the current geo-political situation there is no significant advantage in cobbling together any sort of peace. It seems to be in the national interests of the USA, of China and the rest of Europe to just let the conflict simmer along for the next 3 to 5 years at least. There is just no Peace Dividend for any of the powers that actually matter.
It has established unity in Europe, particularly Eastern Europe hitherto unthinkable; the Swedes and Finns have realized they cannot rely on smug declarations of moral superiority and have to choose a side. The Poles remain steadfast and the Czechs, Slovaks, Romanians, and Bulgars are firmly within the Western camp. The new German Chancellor likes an each way bet, but in accordance with Teutonic tradition is sending his best tanks into the conflict. The Brits are willing as arms suppliers and as a conduit for supplies; the French are as useful as ever. The USA has found a wonderful testing ground for its new armaments and an excellent place to send the second best(quite good enough for stroppy Russians). The arms industry gets to replace all the old stuff with bright and shiny, which makes them happy, and helps employment at home. And best of all no casualties to inflame the media- there might be a few refugees but that's the Europeans problem.
It has made it totally clear that Russia is no longer the great power it was, and is economically at least, a captive of China. China gets cheap oil, cheap resources and is rapidly milking Russia's foreign currency reserves particularly its US$ reserves.The absence of military supplies from China to Russia is interesting, clearly showing that stalemate is a reasonable outcome for China in the short to medium term. The Russians would like a capitulation but even if they got it, they are guaranteed a guerrilla war for the next 50 years at least. It would be an Irish settlement, one where peace is declared and the children and grandchildren keep up the killing.
The Russians and Ukranians are making a contribution roughly 100,000 dead, plus or minus a few per annum; but in the current geo-political situation there is no significant advantage in cobbling together any sort of peace. It seems to be in the national interests of the USA, of China and the rest of Europe to just let the conflict simmer along for the next 3 to 5 years at least. There is just no Peace Dividend for any of the powers that actually matter.
