Worst midterms ever?

[pecksniff]

Some political scientists see possibility of violence and domestic terrorism.

SAN ANTONIO — Among the worst case scenario: Political violence escalates ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Lawmakers in several states vote to secede from the United States. The federal government refuses to let them go. Armed conflict erupts.
The notion of political divisiveness causing a full-blown civil war might seem unlikely, even unthinkable. But some political scientists say they are not ruling it out entirely.

The heightened political tension between Democrats and Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, coupled with the rise of far-right extremism that's manifested itself in flashpoints such as the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, could create more violence in the upcoming months and change the country as we know it.

"It is possible that there will be other instances of violence like we saw on January 6," said Carole Emberton, a history professor at the University at Buffalo who specializes in the American Civil War. "When you have politicians who are riling everyone up and law enforcement that is sort of wishy-washy or weak in its response, then I think you have a really volatile mix that emboldens these kinds of groups to continue with what they're doing

 

[pecksniff]

N.B.: This analysis has nothing to do with the likely results of the midterms, regarding which the RWs on this board are already gloating.

 

[Dribble]

Violence is inevitable if we keep walking this path. I don't understand why so many don't see this? Democrats have allowed Republicans to destroy this country. You can't walk a high road when your enemy doesn't. There is only one path forward that mitigates the violence...and that is the path I support. This country must allow States to leave. We are not united...and never will be.

 

[pecksniff]

Violence is inevitable if we keep walking this path. I don't understand why so many don't see this? Democrats have allowed Republicans to destroy this country. You can't walk a high road when your enemy doesn't. There is only one path forward that mitigates the violence...and that is the path I support. This country must allow States to leave. We are not united...and never will be.

Problem is, the political divisions do not break down along state lines.

Ignore maps that show electoral results by state and look at county maps or maps of U.S. House districts. At this level of granularity, state borders disappear. There are no red states or blue states. Instead, there are blue urban cores floating in a sea of red. Even the exurbs and rural areas in blue states like California and New York tend to be overwhelmingly red and Republican.
This is not a difference between “city” and “country.” Hardly any Americans live or work on farms or ranches anymore. The big divide is within metro areas, between the blue downtowns and their inner-ring suburbs that are home to the American oligarchy and its children and retainers, and the red exurbs; outer-ring suburbs tend to be battlegrounds between the Democratic and Republican coalitions. This geographic concentration hurts the Democrats in the Senate and the Electoral College. At the same time, Democratic blue core cities in majority red states can often circumvent state governments by appealing directly to Congress and to the enforcement layers of the federal bureaucracy and judiciary, as well as to the media and corporate elites controlled by the national party.

The Democratic coalition is an hourglass, top-heavy and bottom-heavy with a narrow middle. In addition to hoovering up the votes of college-educated Americans, the Democrats are the party of the Big Rich—tech billionaires and CEOs, investment banking houses, and the managerial class that spans large corporate enterprises and aligned prestige federal agencies like the Justice Department and the national security agencies. This mostly white and Asian American group cannot win elections without the overwhelming support of Black Americans, and smaller majorities of Hispanic and Asian American voters, clustered in the downtowns and inner suburbs. The high cost of living in Democratic hub cities forces out the multiracial middle; the exceptions tend to be civil servants like police and first responders and teachers who can (sometimes) afford to live in or near their downtown jobs.
The social base of the Democrats is neither a few liberal billionaires nor the more numerous cohorts of high-school educated minority voters; it is the disproportionately white college-educated professionals and managers. These affluent but not rich overclass households dominate the Democratic Party and largely determine its messaging, not by virtue of campaign contributions or voting numbers, but because they very nearly monopolize the staffing of the institutions that support the party—K-12 schools and universities, city and state and federal bureaucracies, public sector unions, foundations, foundation-funded nonprofit organizations, and the mass media. By osmosis, professional and managerial values and material interests and fads and fashions permeate the Democratic Party and shape its agenda.
While the liberal Big Rich cluster in silver apartments and offices in trophy skyscrapers in the inner core of blue cities, the elites of the outer suburbs and exurbs tend to be made up of the Lesser Rich—millionaire car dealership owners, real estate agents, oil and gas drilling equipment company owners, and hair salon chain owners. This group of proprietors—the petty bourgeoisie, to use Marxist terminology, compared to the Democratic haute bourgeoisie and its professional allies—forms the social base of the Republican Party, despite efforts by Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri, Marco Rubio of Florida, and others to rebrand the GOP as a working-class party.
Which is not to say that the social differences between the two parties aren’t important. There are far more business owners and fewer managers of huge multinational firms or banks in red areas than there are in the class-stratified, hierarchical Democratic urban cores. There are fewer rich and fewer poor. If the social structure of Democratic cores resembles an hourglass, the shape of the Republican exurbs and rural areas looks more like a diamond.

There is no conceivable future for the secession of cities from their states and exurbs.

 

[Champakian]

N.B.: This analysis has nothing to do with the likely results of the midterms, regarding which the RWs on this board are already gloating.

Who is gloating?

 

[Rightguide]

Worst midterms ever?​

Well in recent memory in 2010 Democrats lost 69 seats—63 in the House and six in the Senate during the Obama midterm. So, to be the worst in recent times we'd have to see something bigger this time around.

 

[WillJ8787]

Some political scientists see possibility of violence and domestic terrorism.

Just make the arrests and throw away the key.

 

[Rightguide]

Some political scientists see possibility of violence and domestic terrorism.

There is no doubt in my mind the Left will resort to violence if they lose power in Congress and start to take down Joe's Socialist shit.

 

[pecksniff]

Worst midterms ever?​

Well in recent memory in 2010 Democrats lost 69 seats—63 in the House and six in the Senate during the Obama midterm. So, to be the worst in recent times we'd have to see something bigger this time around.

It's not about the results, it's about the possibility of violence.

 

[Rightguide]

It's not about the results, it's about the possibility of violence.

As I said I have no doubt your side will riot if the left loses power in Congress. It's what you do. As Will Smith has shown you can't take a joke either.

 

[pecksniff]

As I said I have no doubt your side will riot if the left loses power in Congress. It's what you do. As Will Smith has shown you can't take a joke either.

You won't see anybody left of CPAC talking about secession.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Only 32 more weeks to go!

 

[pecksniff]

Who is gloating?

See post above.

 

[YDB95]

There is no doubt in my mind the Left will resort to violence if they lose power in Congress and start to take down Joe's Socialist shit.

Do you have a PhD in projection or what?

 

[pecksniff]

There is no doubt in my mind the Left will resort to violence if they lose power in Congress and start to take down Joe's Socialist shit.

You really are an idiot if you think Biden is any kind of socialist, or even a left-progressive social democrat. His politics are not one degree to the left of that damned neoliberal DLC DINO Bill Clinton, nor of the for-all-practical-purposes-indistinguishable Obama.