Will The Russians Really Be Coming?

[Rightguide]

As I was saying the other day...

Russia unleashes a politics-cyber-camouflage strategy against Ukraine
by Tom Rogan, National Security Writer and Contributors Editor | | January 14, 2022 03:46 PM

Russia appeared to unleash a three-prong strategy against Ukraine on Friday.

The first element was designed to give domestic (an underreported concern) and foreign justification to Russia's impending escalation. It came from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who warned that the United States had not taken seriously Russian demands over NATO enlargement and the West's relationship with Ukraine. Lavrov declared, "Our patience has been exhausted. We are very patient. You know what they say about how long Russians take to harness their horses: We harness them slowly, but then it’s time to ride."

Translation: We may decide to ride into battle. While Lavrov is a devoted showman, matched against Russia's now rapidly escalating military encirclement of Ukraine, his rhetoric cannot be ignored as bluster.

The second element of Russia's strategy appears to be a Russian plot to conduct an attack on pro-Russian interests in Ukraine. Russia would then blame this "false flag" attack on Ukrainian forces or partisans, thus giving Moscow a moral pretense to launch a re-invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow hinted that it was developing such a plot in December. As reported on Dec. 30, the U.S. and Britain have grown concerned by the deployment of boutique Russian special forces units in Ukraine. Such plots are a favorite of Russian President Vladimir Putin and are centered in the Soviet military strategy of "maskirovka," or "camouflage/masking."

The third element, designed to intimidate Ukraine and possibly to deter the European Union from joining U.S. sanctions, came with a cyberattack against Ukrainian government websites. This temporarily disabled the websites in lieu of offensive messages in Russian, Ukrainian, and Polish. The attack is unlikely to be directly traced to an SVR or GRU cyber-intelligence unit, the most capable in the Russian cyber-offensive inventory. Instead, it seems relatively simplistic, designed for short-term effect and public intimidation. Considering the obvious benefit to Russian strategic interests, it is likely that nominally private hackers associated with Russian ransomware groups were responsible. These groups operate with varying degrees of subservience to the Russian state, specifically the FSB domestic security service.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...ics-cyber-camouflage-strategy-against-ukraine

 

[pecksniff]

LupusDei (who knows a lot about these things because he lives in Latvia) has remarked in another thread that Putin simply cannot afford to have a more-or-less Russian democracy thriving on his doorstep, and that supplies his motives here.

 

[icanhelp1]

As I was saying the other day...

Russia unleashes a politics-cyber-camouflage strategy against Ukraine
by Tom Rogan, National Security Writer and Contributors Editor | | January 14, 2022 03:46 PM

Russia appeared to unleash a three-prong strategy against Ukraine on Friday.

The first element was designed to give domestic (an underreported concern) and foreign justification to Russia's impending escalation. It came from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who warned that the United States had not taken seriously Russian demands over NATO enlargement and the West's relationship with Ukraine. Lavrov declared, "Our patience has been exhausted. We are very patient. You know what they say about how long Russians take to harness their horses: We harness them slowly, but then it’s time to ride."

Translation: We may decide to ride into battle. While Lavrov is a devoted showman, matched against Russia's now rapidly escalating military encirclement of Ukraine, his rhetoric cannot be ignored as bluster.

The second element of Russia's strategy appears to be a Russian plot to conduct an attack on pro-Russian interests in Ukraine. Russia would then blame this "false flag" attack on Ukrainian forces or partisans, thus giving Moscow a moral pretense to launch a re-invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow hinted that it was developing such a plot in December. As reported on Dec. 30, the U.S. and Britain have grown concerned by the deployment of boutique Russian special forces units in Ukraine. Such plots are a favorite of Russian President Vladimir Putin and are centered in the Soviet military strategy of "maskirovka," or "camouflage/masking."

The third element, designed to intimidate Ukraine and possibly to deter the European Union from joining U.S. sanctions, came with a cyberattack against Ukrainian government websites. This temporarily disabled the websites in lieu of offensive messages in Russian, Ukrainian, and Polish. The attack is unlikely to be directly traced to an SVR or GRU cyber-intelligence unit, the most capable in the Russian cyber-offensive inventory. Instead, it seems relatively simplistic, designed for short-term effect and public intimidation. Considering the obvious benefit to Russian strategic interests, it is likely that nominally private hackers associated with Russian ransomware groups were responsible. These groups operate with varying degrees of subservience to the Russian state, specifically the FSB domestic security service.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...ics-cyber-camouflage-strategy-against-ukraine

I don’t think people realize how explosive this situation is. If Russia invades you can expect China to move on Taiwan. Don’t hear much from NATO. Russians don’t want a fight with NATO, I believe they would lose a conventional conflict but at what point does it escalate to the unthinkable.

In my opinion the Ukraine is lost, we should develop Poland into a mini superpower and move our European forces there, or bring them home and let Europe fend for itself.

 

[pecksniff]

I don’t think people realize how explosive this situation is. If Russia invades you can expect China to move on Taiwan.

I don't see the connection.

 

[icanhelp1]

I don't see the connection.

Give it time, you’ll figure it out.

 

[pecksniff]

Give it time, you’ll figure it out.

The PRC never did follow the lead of Moscow. If Putin invades the Ukraine, that is not necessarily going to embolden them with respect to Taiwan. They must be aware that they cannot invade Taiwan and win, even if the U.S. stays out of it, and that success would leave them with an even bigger poison pill than Hong Kong has turned out to be.

 

[icanhelp1]

The PRC never did follow the lead of Moscow. If Putin invades the Ukraine, that is not necessarily going to embolden them with respect to Taiwan.

What should be happening right now is Germany, France, British, Poland should be screaming from the mountain tops that if they invade then a land war is inevitable. That won’t happen because of how underhanded Biden was with Afghanistan.

Japan, Australia, India and Vietnam should be screaming from the mountain tops that if they invade Taiwan we will sink their fleet and mine their harbors.

Biden’s pullout has ruined any confidence in US as a dependable ally.

 

[pecksniff]

What should be happening right now is Germany, France, British, Poland should be screaming from the mountain tops that if they invade then a land war is inevitable. That won’t happen because of how underhanded Biden was with Afghanistan.

Japan, Australia, India and Vietnam should be screaming from the mountain tops that if they invade Taiwan we will sink their fleet and mine their harbors.

Biden’s pullout has ruined any confidence in US as a dependable ally.

No, there is no connection at all between any of those things and how the Biden Admin handled Afghanistan.

 

[Wrong Element]

What should be happening right now is Germany, France, British, Poland should be screaming from the mountain tops that if they invade then a land war is inevitable. That won’t happen because of how underhanded Biden was with Afghanistan.

Japan, Australia, India and Vietnam should be screaming from the mountain tops that if they invade Taiwan we will sink their fleet and mine their harbors.

Biden’s pullout has ruined any confidence in US as a dependable ally.

Leaving aside that Biden only did in Afghanistan what both presidential candidates said they would do if they won: You really think Biden is the reason all those countries are opposed to a land war with a nuclear power? Grow up.

 

[icanhelp1]

Leaving aside that Biden only did in Afghanistan what both presidential candidates said they would do if they won: You really think Biden is the reason all those countries are opposed to a land war with a nuclear power? Grow up.

Doing it and doing it right are two different things.

Every one is opposed to a land war, ya stop one by having a United front. I don’t see any semblance of leadership or a United front. Do you think Putin would be pulling this shit with Trump?

 

[pecksniff]

Doing it and doing it right are two different things.

Every one is opposed to a land war, ya stop one by having a United front. I don’t see any semblance of leadership or a United front. Do you think Putin would be pulling this shit with Trump?

Of course he would -- and rely on Trump to back him up, which he cannot with Biden.

 

[icanhelp1]

Of course he would -- and rely on Trump to back him up, which he cannot with Biden.

Whatever?

 

[pecksniff]

Whatever?

What, you don't think Putin had Trump in his pocket?

 

[icanhelp1]

What, you don't think Putin had Trump in his pocket?

Not worth a response.

 

[Rightguide]

Looks like the White House is resigned to an invasion any day now. Apparently, their ass-kissing and baby talk didn't do any good.

White House warns Russia could attack Ukraine ‘at any point’

JANUARY 18, 2022 RYAN MORGAN

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki warned during a Tuesday press briefing that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time.

Psaki said Russian President Vladimir Putin has “created this crisis by amassing 100,000 Russian troops along Ukraine’s borders. This includes moving Russian forces into Belarus recently for conducting joint exercises and conducting exercises on Ukraine’s eastern border.”

“Our view is this is an extremely dangerous situation,” Psaki said. “We’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine.”

Psaki’s remarks have come amid increased warning signs of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition to amassing around 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border for months now, Russia has moved troops into Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north. With troops on Ukraine’s eastern border, as well as in Belarus and in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory of Crimea, Russia has a sizeable military presence on three sides of Ukraine.

While the number of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has stayed at about the same level for weeks, Russia has increasingly moved attack helicopters, fighter jets, transport helicopters and logistics units into the area. Russia has also reportedly begun withdrawing many of its diplomats from its embassy in Kyiv and consulates throughout Ukraine.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/01/white-house-warns-russia-could-attack-ukraine-at-any-point

 

[pecksniff]

Looks like the White House is resigned to an invasion any day now. Apparently, their ass-kissing and baby talk didn't do any good.

White House warns Russia could attack Ukraine ‘at any point’

If they were resigned, they wouldn't be issuing warnings.

 

[pecksniff]

Not worth a response.

Let's just be glad this is not happening on Trump's watch.

 

[icanhelp1]

Let's just be glad this is not happening on Trump's watch.

It wouldn’t happen on Trump’s watch.

 

[Rightguide]

I don’t think people realize how explosive this situation is. If Russia invades you can expect China to move on Taiwan. Don’t hear much from NATO. Russians don’t want a fight with NATO, I believe they would lose a conventional conflict but at what point does it escalate to the unthinkable.

In my opinion the Ukraine is lost, we should develop Poland into a mini superpower and move our European forces there, or bring them home and let Europe fend for itself.

I think the Ukrainians will give the Russians all they want in a protracted guerilla war that will bleed the Russians in ways that Putin will have trouble selling at home. Over time it will be increasingly difficult for Putin to sell the crippling sanctions that Biden promised to levy on the Russian economy if Putin invaded. When it comes to what Nato will do, I'm not very confident they can field a force large enough on short notice to oppose a Russian invasion into Ukraine. There will be differing levels of threat perception among the members that could fortify their ingrained reluctance to stand up to Putin thus slowing down a decision to act.

 

[pecksniff]

It wouldn’t happen on Trump’s watch.

He would never face Putin down. He would not even impose economic sanctions.

 

[Rightguide]

What, you don't think Putin had Trump in his pocket?

^^^

Dumbest clown on Lit and the biggest sucker for enemy propaganda as well.

 

[Rightguide]

He would never face Putin down. He would not even impose economic sanctions.

Putin wouldn't have the balls to pull this shit when Trump was in office. Compromised pussy Biden is a whole different matter.

 

[icanhelp1]

I think the Ukrainians will give the Russians all they want in a protracted guerilla war that will bleed the Russians in ways that Putin will have trouble selling at home. Over time it will be increasingly difficult for Putin to sell the crippling sanctions that Biden promised to levy on the Russian economy if Putin invaded. When it comes to what Nato will do, I'm not very confident they can field a force large enough on short notice to oppose a Russian invasion into Ukraine. There will be differing levels of threat perception among the members that could fortify their ingrained reluctance to stand up to Putin thus slowing down a decision to act.

Agreed, Russians will pay dearly, they will certainly get a big bloody nose out of it.

NATO should have been marshaling troops months ago, should have been engaged in training exercises long ago.

This could turn out to be Putin's Afghanistan.

 

[pecksniff]

^^^

Dumbest clown on Lit and the biggest sucker for enemy propaganda as well.

Putin had Trump in his pocket and you know it. The whole world knows it.

 

[Rightguide]

That may be so, but we wouldn’t have the bite to back up the bark then and we still don’t now. NATO as a collective sure as shit doesn’t.

I think you are mistaken. Nobody hit Putin with more sanctions than Trump. If Putin would have pulled this in 2019 he would have hit Putin with the ultimate economic sanction, removing his access to the American banking system and preventing Russian banks from making any transactions in US dollars, and denying investment firms from buying Russian debt instruments. He could also prevent Russia from converting rubles into dollars, euros, or British pounds by denying access to the Swift financial payments system. All of which would have brought his economy to a standstill.