butters
High on a Hill
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2009
- Posts
- 85,710
the article points out the effects of exaggerated beliefs leading to exaggerated disappointments, and the pandemic's effects as a non-political influence.The notion that exaggerated political beliefs might have an impact on the stock market traces to work conducted by Ned Davis Research. The firm has found that, except for when the presidential approval rating is particularly low (below 35%), there is an inverse relationship between it and the return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (See chart below.)
Currently, according to the presidential approval tracker at FiveThirtyEight.com, just 42.4% of Americans approve of the Biden’s job performance — with 52.2% disapproving. This 42.4% approval rate sits almost precisely at the midpoint of the 35%-to-50% range that historically has been associated with the best stock market performance.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...roval-rating/ar-AASUqyO?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531Today, in contrast, many have an equally exaggerated, but opposite, view of the political and economic environment. This may very well set up the preconditions for surprises to be on the upside in the coming year.