Is the PRC really in decline?

[pecksniff]

Some posters here keep insisting the PRC is a house of cards on the point of collapse. But they are expanding their reach through the Belt and Road Initiative, investing vast amounts of money to build roads, railroads and ports in foreign countries, all to facilitate Chinese trade. This is not a sign of decline.

 

[pecksniff]

And they wouldn't be doing this, if they didn't expect the economy to keep chugging along and turning out stuff.

 

[GeorgeSoros]

I’d be more concerned about their long term demographic issues.

 

[pecksniff]

I’d be more concerned about their long term demographic issues.

The whole industrialized world has the "grayby boom" problem. No country will die of it.

 

[GeorgeSoros]

The whole industrialized world has the "grayby boom" problem. No country will die of it.

But some will decline faster than some others. India will continue to rise as China falls, demographically speaking. There’s a fair chance China’s population will halve within 25 years, with the remaining population being significantly older.

 

[Philthy_Phil]

But some will decline faster than some others. India will continue to rise as China falls, demographically speaking. There’s a fair chance China’s population will halve within 25 years, with the remaining population being significantly older.

What, all of a sudden asian women are going to realize that asian men are gross and weak?

 

[pecksniff]

What, all of a sudden asian women are going to realize that asian men are gross and weak?

The problem is there aren't enough of them -- no, really. The PRC instituted a "one child" policy, and Chinese culture remaining Chinese culture, everybody wanted a son, so girls tended to be aborted or infanticided.

China Needs Women. And they're too racist to import Russians.

 

[pecksniff]

OTOH, Chinese culture remaining Chinese culture, they're not going to let their venerable elders languish in poverty. So, the "grayby boom" problem might well hit China harder than it would another country.

But, I don't see it as an existential threat to the function of their economy -- the Chinese have access to automation technology like everybody else -- they might have a diminishing supply of working-age people, but their need for working-age people will also decline. Also, they're doing their own outsourcing and offshoring, exporting the assembly-line jobs to India and Africa.

 

[pecksniff]

But some will decline faster than some others. India will continue to rise as China falls, demographically speaking. There’s a fair chance China’s population will halve within 25 years, with the remaining population being significantly older.

But that does not mean India will grow richer than China. Rather, India is in worse danger of being saddled with the social problem of the unemployable young.

 

[OldJourno]

OTOH, Chinese culture remaining Chinese culture, they're not going to let their venerable elders languish in poverty. So, the "grayby boom" problem might well hit China harder than it would another country.

But, I don't see it as an existential threat to the function of their economy -- the Chinese have access to automation technology like everybody else -- they might have a diminishing supply of working-age people, but their need for working-age people will also decline. Also, they're doing their own outsourcing and offshoring, exporting the assembly-line jobs to India and Africa.

You are quite the cheerleader for a regime with multiple concentration camps and policies for forced organ harvesting.
I've also read of China's financial problems, but I've also read of Xi seeing capitalism as Mao did, a step toward communism. Xi made a recent address in a Mao jacket, which should tell you all you need to know about how hard line he plans to be. This is a man who promised to grind the bones of his enemies into dust.
Yeah, he'll probably get a Nobel Peace Prize within five years, probably shortly after taking over Taiwain and subjecting the people there to a new Great Leap Forward to Death.

 

[pecksniff]

You are quite the cheerleader for a regime with multiple concentration camps and policies for forced organ harvesting.

I no more want the PRC regime to survive than you do. I was all for the democracy movement in 1989.

But, I see no signs that it's on the way out, and many posters here do claim to see such signs.

This is the first I've heard of any "forced organ harvesting."

 

[pecksniff]

I've also read of China's financial problems, but I've also read of Xi seeing capitalism as Mao did, a step toward communism. Xi made a recent address in a Mao jacket, which should tell you all you need to know about how hard line he plans to be. This is a man who promised to grind the bones of his enemies into dust.

So, what, is Xi going to reverse everything Deng did to liberalize the economy and allow for capitalism? Is he going to nationalize all the private businesses that have emerged since then?

 

[pecksniff]

And then there's the ongoing saber-rattling against Taiwan. Is such expansionism a sign of desperation -- or of confidence?