78% of senior Capitol Hill aides believe Republicans will regain the House in 2022

[Counselor706]

Seventy-eight percent of senior Capitol Hill aides believe Republicans will regain the House in 2022, up 12 percent from April, according to a poll released Monday.

The survey was conducted anonymously between April 11 and 28 online through Locust Street Group in partnership with Punchbowl News. The survey asked 158 senior Capitol Hill aides, which includes chiefs of staff, legislative directors, communications directors, press secretaries, and staff directors.

Source

 

[pecksniff]

I'm sure Capitol Hill aides pay more attention to this than other people, but are they really in any better position to know?

 

[ll74]

Ha! This question response cracks me up:

QUESTION 7:Which of the following makes governing and reaching compromise MORE difficult?
TOTAL DEM GOP HOUSE SENATE
The conservative wing of the Republican Party 62% 95% 27% 63% 59%
The progressive wing of the Democratic Party 38% 5% 73% 37% 41%

 

[ll74]

Honestly, that is a very interesting poll. Too bad you focused on just that piece of it....alot more to it worth discussing.

Like Tucker Carlson and Stacey Abrams being the most influential of the parties.

Like China legislation close to passing.....next speaker...etc.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

History, the census, redistricting, and polling data strongly favor the GOP in 2022, but as always, the outcome is uncertain until the ballots are cast, counted, and certified.

 

[YDB95]

I'm sure Capitol Hill aides pay more attention to this than other people, but are they really in any better position to know?

I used to be one, and I can say with complete confidence the answer is no.
Besides, House Republicans always claim the next election is going to be another 1994. (It IS true that the president's party almost always loses seats in a midterm election, but not quite always.)

 

[ll74]

I used to be one, and I can say with complete confidence the answer is no.
Besides, House Republicans always claim the next election is going to be another 1994. (It IS true that the president's party almost always loses seats in a midterm election, but not quite always.)

The polls says more than that, but we have another year until we truly know how the cards stack up.

 

[ll74]

Another Interesting analysis

 

[WillJ8787]

Meanwhile in reality called the Nj primary.....they lost big time.

 

[CornusKousa]

Another Interesting analysis

Good read, seems pretty based.

The polls says more than that, but we have another year until we truly know how the cards stack up.

That 'ballot box' is the ultimate poll now isn't it?

I think the technical analysis is correct and barring some unforeseen upset between now and then then, (R)'s are taking the House.

Less certain is the Senate, the odds are still in their favor here as well with more opportunity and less risk.

But we're only talking 3...maybe 4 seats gain max, and maybe losing 1. Not too big of a deal so long as the (D)'s don't get rid of that filibuster...as doing so would almost certainly turn right around and bite them in the ass.

 

[SyLent]

History, the census, redistricting, and polling data strongly favor the GOP in 2022, but as always, the outcome is uncertain until the ballots are cast, counted, and certified.

Dummy

The votes are already COUNTED, its just that they havent yet announced teh results

 

[CornusKousa]

Meanwhile in reality called the Nj primary.....they lost big time.

It's NJ....no shit, it's as blue as NY and California.

 

[WillJ8787]

It's NJ....no shit, it's as blue as NY and California.

NJ and NY is Dumpties home....are you stupid!

He can't win here because we know he is a charlottan and criminal.

 

[astuffedshirt_perv]

78% of senior Capitol Hill aides believe Republicans will regain the House in 2022

Midterms are always brutal for the in-power party. Always. Even a 'as good as the best ever' result would end in Dem's loss of the house. I don't think this is even vaguely controversial? But that, as they say, is why they play the game.

 

[CornusKousa]

NJ and NY is Dumpties home....are you stupid!

He can't win here because we know he is a charlottan and criminal.

That doesn't make them not blue through and through.

He can't win there because he hasn't got a (D) next to his name....if he did you all would love him.

 

[YDB95]

Midterms are always brutal for the in-power party. Always. Even a 'as good as the best ever' result would end in Dem's loss of the house. I don't think this is even vaguely controversial? But that, as they say, is why they play the game.

Not so. In 1998 and 2002, the incumbent party gained seats. it's rare but it does happen.