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LIT CAMS (200 Free Tokens)ADULT TOYSVOD MOVIES

Virus, economies, and oil.

SpeareChucker said:
They want bases in Cuba too...


:eek:


... and still we slash at our Navy.
Click to expand...

Not as bad as it might appear. There are some issues though. We don't have a replacement for our Cruisers yet and the new Frigates won't be coming on line for a couple of years yet. We're good to go with Carriers, Destroyers, and Subs though.
 
We might need to replace some cruise missiles
seeing how an Iranian proxy just crossed
Trump's red line in Iraq...

;) ;)
 
It is interesting watching Pelosi rejecting everything Trump wants to do
because it's not doing enough for her hands out for handouts...

Then when nothing gets done, blame Trump's intransigence
and that is the story the MSM will run with.

;) ;)
 
I'm waiting for a "Trump colluded with the Chinese" to create and loose the virus. It really has gotten damn near that bad.

In other news the Ruble is tanking this AM. This might backfire on Putin after all.
 
They've already all but made that case
as in Trump has deliberately done nothing...

I see that one of the more useful idiots has pronounced his network appearance
last night as a total failure, but then that was a script that started running
through his (and others) head(s) as soon as they heard that he
was going to address the nation.
 

(semi-repetitious but it's important to understand)



The U.S. is the world's marginal, high cost, producer of petroleum. That means its production will always be the most vulnerable to any decline in petroleum prices. ExxonMobil and Chevron and BP and Royal Dutch Shell and ConocoPhillips and Total and Occidental and Hess and the rest of the hydrocarbon producers know this and take it into account in their capital budgeting.


Since 2008, U.S. production of petroleum has more than doubled (from less than 5MM BOPD to more than 12MM BOPD).

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43015


In fact, it can correctly be said that it is the U.S. that has created this oversupply.


Putin's gambit will succeed in substantially reducing U.S. domestic CAPEX (certainly in the short run, probably in the intermediate term as well).


If you hold a gun to my head and insist that I guess, I suspect that after a period of time during which Russia and OPEC have inflicted enough pain on the U.S. (which means a decline in U.S. production and bankruptcies among U.S. independent producers and oil service providers), they will once again reach an accommodation.


This episode is a repeat of Saudi behavior seen in 2014 and in 1986. Unsurprisingly and quite understandably, the Sauds are unwilling to provide a price umbrella allowing others (Russia and the U.S.) to capture market share and wealth.



"If you've been in the game for fifteen minutes and you don't know who the patsy is— you are."
​




​
 
trysail said:

(semi-repetitious but it's important to understand)



The U.S. is the world's marginal, high cost, producer of petroleum. That means its production will always be the most vulnerable to any decline in petroleum prices. ExxonMobil and Chevron and BP and Royal Dutch Shell and ConocoPhillips and Total and Occidental and Hess and the rest of the hydrocarbon producers know this and take it into account in their capital budgeting.


Since 2008, U.S. production of petroleum has more than doubled (from less than 5MM BOPD to more than 12MM BOPD).

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43015


In fact, it can correctly be said that it is the U.S. that has created this oversupply.


Putin's gambit will succeed in substantially reducing U.S. domestic CAPEX (certainly in the short run, probably in the intermediate term as well).


If you hold a gun to my head and insist that I guess, I suspect that after a period of time during which Russia and OPEC have inflicted enough pain on the U.S. (which means a decline in U.S. production and bankruptcies among U.S. independent producers and oil service providers), they will once again reach an accommodation.


This episode is a repeat of Saudi behavior seen in 2014 and in 1986. Unsurprisingly and quite understandably, the Sauds are unwilling to provide a price umbrella allowing others (Russia and the U.S.) to capture market share and wealth.



"If you've been in the game for fifteen minutes and you don't know who the patsy is— you are."
​




​
Click to expand...

All true, but the holes are in the ground and the oil is still there. Whoever ends up with the leases will just cap the wells until the price point floats above $50/bbl again (adjusted for inflation). Yes, the independents are going to take it in the shorts but I suspect the Russians are going to feel some pain as well. Considering the logistics and infrastructure the Saudi's not so much.
 
bellisarius said:
All true, but the holes are in the ground and the oil is still there. Whoever ends up with the leases will just cap the wells until the price point floats above $50/bbl again (adjusted for inflation). Yes, the independents are going to take it in the shorts but I suspect the Russians are going to feel some pain as well. Considering the logistics and infrastructure the Saudi's not so much.
Click to expand...



Get ready for historical stock buybacks to kick in along with mergers and acquisitions.
 
The Coronavirus hoax

The coronavirus is a real problem but the hype about it is a fake news hoax that is hurting millions. They are using it like they used the fake Russia hoax to try to stop Trump and regain the power over other people that they crave.

The Chinese are fueling the hoax because they want Trump's economy to decline just before the election. They also see how the fake news outlets in the USA are using it to beat on Trump. So, fools will be fooled.

Thanks for the OP. Very spot on.
 
icanhelp1 said:
Get ready for historical stock buybacks to kick in along with mergers and acquisitions.
Click to expand...

Ya think?

The stock market is a fool's game for 99% of people who own stocks. It's manipulated by a hand full of big players. The recent sell-off was caused by those players and next week you'll see them swoop in and buy up cheap stocks.
 
Lookee all the RWCJ in here trying to reassure themselves that the Covid-19 virus is "no big deal". It's a hoax, dammit! A HOAX!
 
JohnnySavage said:
Ya think?

The stock market is a fool's game for 99% of people who own stocks...
Click to expand...



I don't know what it is, but you're doing something wrong.




Annual Returns (1960-2020)
Cash, Intermediate Term U.S. Treasury Bonds, S&P 500 and CPI Inflation

Code: 
	Annual Returns  [Source: Vanguard Group and Ibbotson Associates]
	     *  S&P 500 Index
            ** Intermediate Term Treasury Bond
	
					
	Year	Cash	Bonds**Stocks*Inflation
					
	1960	2.7 	11.8 	0.5 	1.5 
	1961	2.1 	1.9 	26.9 	0.7 
	1962	2.7 	5.6 	(8.7)	1.2 
	1963	3.1 	1.6 	22.8 	1.6 
	1964	3.5 	4.0 	16.5 	1.2 
	1965	3.9 	1.0 	12.5 	1.9 
	1966	4.8 	4.7 	(10.1)	3.4 
	1967	4.2 	1.0 	24.0 	3.0 
	1968	5.2 	4.5 	11.1 	4.7 
	1969	6.6 	(0.7)	(8.5)	6.1 
	1970	6.5 	16.9 	4.0 	5.5 
	1971	4.4 	8.7 	14.3 	3.4 
	1972	3.8 	5.2 	19.0 	3.4 
	1973	6.9 	4.6 	(14.7)	8.8 
	1974	8.0 	5.7 	(26.5)	12.2 
	1975	5.8 	7.8 	37.2 	7.0 
	1976	5.1 	12.9 	23.8 	4.8 
	1977	5.1 	1.4 	(7.2)	6.8 
	1978	7.2 	3.5 	6.6 	9.0 
	1979	10.4 	4.1 	18.4 	13.3 
	1980	11.2 	3.9 	32.4 	12.4 
	1981	14.7 	9.5 	(4.9)	8.9 
	1982	10.5 	29.1 	21.4 	3.9 
	1983	8.8 	7.4 	22.5 	3.8 
	1984	9.9 	14.0 	6.3 	4.0 
	1985	7.7 	20.3 	32.2 	3.8 
	1986	6.2 	15.1 	18.5 	1.1 
	1987	5.5 	2.9 	5.2 	4.4 
	1988	6.4 	6.1 	16.8 	4.4 
	1989	8.4 	13.3 	31.5 	4.7 
	1990	7.8 	9.7 	(3.2)	6.1 
	1991	5.6 	15.5 	30.6 	3.1 
	1992	3.5 	7.2 	7.7 	2.9 
	1993	2.9 	11.2 	10.0 	2.8 
	1994	3.9 	(5.1)	1.3 	2.7 
	1995	5.6 	16.8 	37.4 	2.5 
	1996	5.2 	2.1 	23.1 	3.3 
	1997	5.3 	8.4 	33.4 	1.7 
	1998	4.9 	10.2 	28.6 	1.6 
	1999	4.7 	(1.8)	21.0 	2.7 
	2000	5.9 	12.6 	(9.1)	3.4 
	2001	3.8 	7.6 	(11.9)	1.6 
	2002	1.7 	12.9 	(22.1)	2.4 
	2003	1.0 	2.4 	28.7 	1.9 
	2004	1.2 	2.3 	10.9 	3.3 
	2005	3.0 	1.4 	4.9 	3.4 
	2006	4.8 	2.8 	15.8 	2.5 
	2007	4.8 	10.2 	5.5 	4.3 
	2008	2.1 	16.8   (37.0)	0.1 
	2009	0.4 	(4.8)	26.5 	2.7 
	2010	0.1 	 7.6 	15.1 	1.1
        2011    0.1     13.2     2.1    3.0
        2012    0.0      3.6    16.0    1.7
        2013    0.0     (4.7)   32.4    1.5
        2014    0.0      6.4    13.7    0.7
        2015    0.0      1.8     1.4    0.7
        2016    0.2      1.9    12.0    2.1  
        2017    0.9      2.2    21.8    2.1
        2018    1.8      1.2    (4.4)   1.9
        2019    1.6      7.5    31.5    2.3



The 2020 YTD total return for the S&P 500 is -14.83% as of 3/11.


​
 
Last edited:
bellisarius said:
All true, but the holes are in the ground and the oil is still there. Whoever ends up with the leases will just cap the wells until the price point floats above $50/bbl again (adjusted for inflation). Yes, the independents are going to take it in the shorts but I suspect the Russians are going to feel some pain as well. Considering the logistics and infrastructure the Saudi's not so much.
Click to expand...



There is some truth to the idea that our own oil production could be partly the blame for our own pain.
 
JohnnySavage said:
Ya think?

The stock market is a fool's game for 99% of people who own stocks. It's manipulated by a hand full of big players. The recent sell-off was caused by those players and next week you'll see them swoop in and buy up cheap stocks.
Click to expand...


The fool's game is putting your money under a mattress. :confused:
 
In 2009-10 80 million US citizens were infected with the H1N1 (swine fly) virus. 300,00 were hospitalized and over 17,000 died. No panic then............of course the media wasn't trying to panic anyone and every one. What's so different about this virus?
 
I'm all about dollar a gallon gas. The problem is everything will be closed.
 
bellisarius said:
In 2009-10 80 million US citizens were infected with the H1N1 (swine fly) virus. 300,00 were hospitalized and over 17,000 died. No panic then............of course the media wasn't trying to panic anyone and every one. What's so different about this virus?
Click to expand...

So. Much. Ignorance.

We've had the virus in this country for about 10 minutes. It spreads much faster. And the CDC disagree with your numbers.
 
Last edited:
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