Bump This Thread Whenever You See Trump is Still in Office

[OldJourno]

Enjoy the next 59 months and 27 days.
And no, I didn't do the math.

 

[OldJourno]

The alternative thread was "Kobe beef expensive," so I feel like I'm on the right side of good taste and manners this evening.

 

[Conager]

Could have gone with: Why have the snowflakes quit talking about 'impeachment?' but I do like the concept. Will be watching this thread closely

 

[Comshaw]

Enjoy the next 59 months and 27 days.
And no, I didn't do the math.

Explainer: Countdown to recession - What an inverted yield curve means


WHY DOES INVERSION MATTER?

Yield curve inversion is a classic signal of a looming recession.

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time....



Hmmmmmmm








Comshaw

 

[icanhelp1]

Explainer: Countdown to recession - What an inverted yield curve means


WHY DOES INVERSION MATTER?

Yield curve inversion is a classic signal of a looming recession.

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time....



Hmmmmmmm





It was inverted less than a year ago. Housing start-ups are going through the roof, mortgages backed securities are still a good investment. The bond yields and markets are reacting to the Coronavirus. Temp flight to quality.

All major market indexes are in positive territory!

 

[Counselor706]

Explainer: Countdown to recession - What an inverted yield curve means


WHY DOES INVERSION MATTER?

Yield curve inversion is a classic signal of a looming recession.

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time....



Hmmmmmmm








Comshaw

A few passages from your linked article...

Still, while a recession may be likely to follow an inversion, the timing is uncertain, and loose monetary policy globally could result in any downturn taking longer to materialise.

Some analysts also think that the relative attractiveness of U.S. bonds to those in Europe and Japan, many of which have negative yields, is keeping longer-dated yields below where they would otherwise be, reducing the accuracy of the yield curve inversion as a recession signal.

 

[HisArpy]

It was inverted less than a year ago. Housing start-ups are going through the roof, mortgages backed securities are still a good investment. The bond yields and markets are reacting to the Coronavirus. Temp flight to quality.

It's interesting how the ill informed believe that the inverted yield curve means inevitable impending financial doom when history says there are exceptions to the signs AND current events point more toward the exception than the rule.

It also conveniently leaves out the fact that what goes up, must come down and every investor knows that and plans for it.

Basically, it's Chicken Little and hand wringing.

 

[Comshaw]

It's interesting how the ill informed believe that the inverted yield curve means inevitable impending financial doom when history says there are exceptions to the signs AND current events point more toward the exception than the rule.

It also conveniently leaves out the fact that what goes up, must come down and every investor knows that and plans for it.

Basically, it's Chicken Little and hand wringing.

"...The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time..."


Hmmmmmmm




Comshaw

 

[HisArpy]

"...The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time..."


Hmmmmmmm




Comshaw

While the exception is not the rule, the market's current upward trend indicates that the inverted curve, even when combined with current political and the CoronaVirus outbreak events, is having little to no effect on investors, investing, or return rates.

It won't last, but the inflection point will not solely be because of the yield curve predicting it.

 

[Comshaw]

While the exception is not the rule, the market's current upward trend indicates that the inverted curve, even when combined with current political and the CoronaVirus outbreak events, is having little to no effect on investors, investing, or return rates.

It won't last, but the inflection point will not solely be because of the yield curve predicting it.

I see, so you're insisting that even though it has been wrong only once in the last 50 years as a predictor of recession, it's wrong now because of your opinion that it is? Have any expert analysis to back up that claim? Any at all?


Comshaw

 

[HisArpy]

I see, so you're insisting that even though it has been wrong only once in the last 50 years as a predictor of recession, it's wrong now because of your opinion that it is? Have any expert analysis to back up that claim? Any at all?


Comshaw

While a yield curve inversion has preceded recent recessions, it doesn’t happen immediately, and the lead time has been very inconsistent. Historically, a recession can come anywhere from one to two years after the curve flips upside-down, and the stock market usually continues to gain from the day of the inversion until its cycle peak.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/yield-curve-inversion-51553272263

That means that no one knows WHEN OR IF the economy will contract. the average is 14 months. Which puts it, if Trump isn't reelected, SQUARELY on the heads of the Democrats to preside over.

Something the Left is quite vocal about saying only R's have done.

While history does not repeat, it often rhymes. The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys that took place in 2019 does not mean the economy will enter recession exactly 14 months later in 2020. Indeed, the inversions that took place in 1966 and 1998 were not followed by recessions. However, an inverted yield curve does strongly remind investors that recessions are inevitable and that they should be careful to maintain proper asset allocation in their portfolios, rather than trying to make tactical moves in anticipation of the market downturns that often accompany economic slowdowns.

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/inverted-yield-curve

That means that there's no guarantee that the inverted curve WILL forecast a contraction in the economy.

(BTW, the quote from the second link indicates that the yield curve was inverted 2x since the 1960's with no following recession. Not 1x and most parrot around about it. 1 of those times was in 1998 which is recent history.)

You should read this and see if any of the things in this report are similar to current trends and events.

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-rese...arch/how-did-the-economy-surprise-us-in-1998/

Those enough "experts" for you?

 

[OldJourno]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Still president.

President Trump. Just rolls off the tongue like a strong economy, like a strong national defense, like a common sense foreign policy.

 

[Comshaw]

That means that no one knows WHEN OR IF the economy will contract. the average is 14 months. Which puts it, if Trump isn't reelected, SQUARELY on the heads of the Democrats to preside over.

Something the Left is quite vocal about saying only R's have done.



That means that there's no guarantee that the inverted curve WILL forecast a contraction in the economy.

(BTW, the quote from the second link indicates that the yield curve was inverted 2x since the 1960's with no following recession. Not 1x and most parrot around about it. 1 of those times was in 1998 which is recent history.)

You should read this and see if any of the things in this report are similar to current trends and events.

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-rese...arch/how-did-the-economy-surprise-us-in-1998/

Those enough "experts" for you?

Interesting, but I see nothing there that repudiates the fact that the negative curve has only been wrong once in 50 years as a predictor of a recession. The negative curve isn't a guarantee of a recession. However we've had 6 in the last 50 years, so the likelyhood of the negative curve as a predictor being accurate is a hair over 83%.

Would you bet on a poker hand if you knew it had an 83% chance of winning? Of course you would. So motorboat all you want, the odds are in favor (by a very long way) of a looming recession. The only question in my mind, how bad will it be?

Comshaw

 

[HisArpy]

Interesting, but I see nothing there that repudiates the fact that the negative curve has only been wrong once in 50 years as a predictor of a recession. The negative curve isn't a guarantee of a recession. However we've had 6 in the last 50 years, so the likelyhood of the negative curve as a predictor being accurate is a hair over 83%.

Would you bet on a poker hand if you knew it had an 83% chance of winning? Of course you would. So motorboat all you want, the odds are in favor (by a very long way) of a looming recession. The only question in my mind, how bad will it be?

Comshaw

I have no issues with you being bearish. I'm only saying that doom & gloom forecasts have a tendency to make the person making those predictions have an equally sour outlook.

As for the economy, anyone who actively invests knows that economies go up and they come down. Failing to prepare is why so many people go bankrupt in the market and business. Because it's not a matter of if, or even when, it's a matter of being SMART with your money.

Thus, even if a recession hits, it won't be "bad" it'll be a challenge.

 

[icanhelp1]

Interesting, but I see nothing there that repudiates the fact that the negative curve has only been wrong once in 50 years as a predictor of a recession. The negative curve isn't a guarantee of a recession. However we've had 6 in the last 50 years, so the likelyhood of the negative curve as a predictor being accurate is a hair over 83%.

Would you bet on a poker hand if you knew it had an 83% chance of winning? Of course you would. So motorboat all you want, the odds are in favor (by a very long way) of a looming recession. The only question in my mind, how bad will it be?

Comshaw

I suggested to you that housing starts are way up which signifies consumer spending is at a high. Consumer confidence is also high.

Zero inflation and a stable fed rate ( 1.75 % ) as compared to foreign rates at below zero. We have room to react to inflationary pressures. Best place for foreign investment is right here is the US of A

Mortgage back securities are a good buy which forecast investors are not concerned with a pull back anytime soon.

Our economy is in a goldilock zone where GDP is at 2.0%, unemployment at 3.5 and the U-6 at 6.7 and steady labor participation rate at 63.3.

These current conditions are not predicting a recession. I believe the bond yields were inverted in 2019 and have since corrected. The inversion was believed to have been caused by Pacific Rim and the EU having negative returns on their bonds as well as below zero fed rates. However we stopped our race to zero and are maintaining a 1.75 % fed rate which in comparison to foreign economies make the US a good place to invest.

Your statement that inverted bond yields are a predictor to the onset of a pending recession is correct, just not this time.

 

[OldJourno]

Didja see that Sen. Richard Blue Menthol is on the record as saying the case against our beloved president is "bereft of evidence." Truer words …



https://pjmedia.com/trending/lol-de...bd8152518e992eb6f9d8034281dfdf4e&recip=693665

 

[Kantarii]

We should all bump this thread when Trump is re-elected

 

[OldJourno]

We should all bump this thread when Trump is re-elected

And bump again after the bi-partisan vote to acquit.

 

[Conager]

It seems that "impeached" president Donald John Trump is still president and keeping America great, much to the chagrin of certain posters here.

 

[Kantarii]

How many do you think are going to be upset when Trump gets re-elected after all this BS?

 

[Conager]

Maybe they can impeach him again for having the temerity to campaign for re-election.

 

[OldJourno]

Maybe they can impeach him again for having the temerity to campaign for re-election.

Conspiracy to campaign.
Let Schiff test his attorney chops on that one.

 

[Conager]

Looks like it's going to be a beautiful morning. "Impeached" President Donald John Trump seems to still be making America great and is one day closer to being able to crow about his 'exoneration."

Oddly generous for Democrats to give him both the advantage of incumbency while being able to claim underdog status.

If they didn't like his victory lap after Kavanaugh, they're really not going to like this one.

 

[Rightguide]

Probably not.

8 more hours of questions and then it looks like Schiff's shit show may be coming to an end without witnesses come Friday. Then we'll have a weekend of various rain dances in the media and among Democrats before a new "bombshell" is invented.

 

[Rightguide]

Thanks for sharing, gav!

You should probably understand that a Heather that is still young enough to give is much more interesting than an old Heather no longer able to.