Are We Destined For War?

[bellisarius]

I think those are all good points, however,
that piece you forwarded to me is nothing but a history
of how the mighty were taken down by those with lesser,
but more motivated and ethnically/religiously united militaries.

If our military is undermined and deserted on the home front
then defeat is once, again inevitable and predictable.
Remember, we won Tet on the battlefield but
lost it decisively at home...

And that IS the issue, isn't it? Virtually all of those empires destroyed themselves from within, any military confrontation was merely the final nail in the coffin.

 

[Kantarii]

China's military looks good on paper but in reality they're still a continental power. Meaning they have an awesome Army but their Air Forces and Navy leave a lot to be desired. They still can't project power beyond their continental shelf. Their jet engines are seriously under powered and unreliable (so are Russia's). They have little sea lift capability. And that's the problem that they, or anyone else, faces when you steal technology that you don't fully understand.

It's not by accident that all three of our Sea Wolf class subs are west coast based now. Those boats are quieter at 20 kt.s than the LA class is parked at the dock. They carry 50 war shots and the Mk 48 has a range of damn near 30 nmi. If they're going to play in the Pacific they're going to have to bring a hell of a lot more than they have.

China’s biggest problems boil down to two major flaws. One, they have not battle tested their military in open combat and they have the same thinking Japan did prior to Pearl Harbor.

Beyond that, China boasts a lot about their growing military power that is not as advanced as the US’s. Yes, they are land based. Historically, so was America compared to England at one time. The big difference is Air power. England didn’t have that luxury waging war that far away from home with America.

Another factor is China throws a hefty population and a mega size army around. Yes, it is intimidating, but a few things to keep in mind strategically here. One most of their high population cities are concentrated on the eastern coast. Two, their coastline lowlands, easily accessible, and the easily blockaded. And three, they are dependent on foreign oil through the narrow shipping lanes of the Malecca straight.

For them to wage any type of war with America beyond trade would be foolish on their part. It wouldn’t be a shooting war. It would involve nukes from the beginning. Forget land, sea, or air. It boils down to nukes with war against China.

 

[HisArpy]

China’s biggest problems boil down to two major flaws. One, they have not battle tested their military in open combat and they have the same thinking Japan did prior to Pearl Harbor.

Beyond that, China boasts a lot about their growing military power that is not as advanced as the US’s. Yes, they are land based. Historically, so was America compared to England at one time. The big difference is Air power. England didn’t have that luxury waging war that far away from home with America.

Another factor is China throws a hefty population and a mega size army around. Yes, it is intimidating, but a few things to keep in mind strategically here. One most of their high population cities are concentrated on the eastern coast. Two, their coastline lowlands, easily accessible, and the easily blockaded. And three, they are dependent on foreign oil through the narrow shipping lanes of the Malecca straight.

For them to wage any type of war with America beyond trade would be foolish on their part. It wouldn’t be a shooting war. It would involve nukes from the beginning. Forget land, sea, or air. It boils down to nukes with war against China.

I'm not real sure about nuclear war with China.

To me it seems that the most likely progression from where we are right now hinges on Iran.

Iran is not a nuclear power. For all it's chest beating and sabre rattling, it's a shithole that endangers the rest of the world with it's religious radicalism. All of the other nations we have issues with - NK, China, Russia - are all dependent in some way on the success of Iran remaining the way it is.

The problem is that Iran is in a box. A box we put it in. It either has to accept that it will be tamed or go to war. If it goes to war with the US, it will be annihilated and then put back into the box. Simply because it isn't a nuclear power and doesn't have the capabilities we do militarily and economically.

North Korea IS a nuclear power. Kind of. Yet, if Iran falls, their only friend outside of China is gone and China doesn't really care about NK other than as a current trade partner. When Iran falls, NK ceases to be as important to China because the NK market "shrinks".

China and Russia are in the same boat if Iran falls. Especially if it falls fast. they would then be facing a US which is battle tested and capable with a leadership that is willing to do what's necessary. And win. That's a hard sell to your people when you want to go up against that wall and push. Especially if the US continues to offer peace and trade and prosperity if they just go back into their box.

Iran then NK is the current map to a peaceful future with China and Russia.

 

[jaF0]

Let China have the west and south Pacific areas.

Pull all of our people back to the Western Hemisphere.

Not our business.

 

[HisArpy]

Let China have the west and south Pacific areas.

Pull all of our people back to the Western Hemisphere.

Not our business.

Meanwhile on the immigration front, the progressive talk is that we should go to S. America and help those countries like Ecuador have better economies.

Which is it? We should pull back? Or we should start nation building?

Or maybe we should only help brown people and let the yellow ones do what they want. Until they come for the rest of the world after having established themselves as the rightful owners of half of it. Then what?

 

[SpeareChucker]

And that IS the issue, isn't it? Virtually all of those empires destroyed themselves from within, any military confrontation was merely the final nail in the coffin.

This seems to be apparent.
Without the Byzantines and Persians bleeding themselves to death
the Pagan Arabs would not have had and avenue of expansion.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Let China have the west and south Pacific areas.

Pull all of our people back to the Western Hemisphere.

Not our business.

So, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, anyone who ships through that area, they have no say. None of their business.

Just China.

Interesting...

I just love such deep thinking.

I wonder what our friends down under think about this brilliance...

 

[bellisarius]

She has such a towering intellect.

 

[SpeareChucker]

It has to be true!


It can fit on a bumper sticker!

 

[suurfer]

One of my good friends here recently sent me this link via PM and this seems like a good time to share it with someone else:

https://www.docdroid.net/5CdrehR/the-fate-of-empires-by-sir-john-glubb.pdf

In a way, it is very scary, much like The Ominous Parallels.

It's a FANTASTIC source. The best.
It elaborates on Schlessinger's cyclical (as opposed to the mainstream linear) theory of history, the way Strauss-Howe did, but in a more succint and pragmatic way.

If only our teachers would have taught us History and Geography in this way, instead of the tedious regurgitation of dates... I used to memorize for tests but forget them straight after, to the point that upon graduating high school I could barely find countries on a map.

I'm uploading a less screen stretching Grubb table and a summary of the article, for other posters:

https://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/st_20160602_sthonour_23360742.jpg

Tom X. Hart: Ideology | “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival” – or, why do empires rise and fall?
https://www.google.com/search?clien...urvival”+–+or**C+why+do+empires+rise+and+fall


Apparently most empires last roughly 250 years = 10 generations of 25 years each.

 

[suurfer]

He said that Britain's empire lasted between 1700-1950.

What would the parameters be for the US?

 

[Shelly2inme]

War is coming

There is no question about it. War is coming. Even without the record of history to predict the likelihood of war the current global situation is a tinder box. It is way past the tipping point. I don't mean to cry doom and gloom but war is coming and it is fueled by selfishness and greed.

 

[CandiCame]

Y'all know that we're currently in like 7 wars, right? Like... you know that. The military budget reports are public record.

And not just that but everybody knows a vet who's seen active combat. Like y'all know we are currently at war.

I don't remember a time of peace for the US. I think there was one briefly in the 90s after Yugoslavia but before the war on terror, but I was too little to remember that so as far as I'm concerned I don't know what the US is like when we're not at war. No one in my generation does.

Like what do y'all think those folks fighting ISIS and shit are doing? They ain't larping COD, they're fighting a war.

 

[astuffedshirt_perv]

No chance of a war. Shooting? Perhaps, but who can blame the boys for wanting to exchange a little lead now and again. War is a slugging fest thats takes everything from the winner. It takes even more from the loser. First:

China's military looks good on paper but in reality they're still a continental power. Meaning they have an awesome Army but their Air Forces and Navy leave a lot to be desired. They still can't project power beyond their continental shelf.

Yes, this. A large land army, but so what? They gonna march across the ocean to invade Japan? Further, while China may be a very large economy, it is not a very wealthy nation per capita. A shooting contest, no matter how brief, would hurt China's economy immeasurably, but would mere result in delays of the latest iPhone stateside.

Both countries are acutely aware that more money is the goal, and shooting each other doesn't help achieve that goal. No war, not today, not tomorrow.

 

[FeelgoodSF]

Y'all know that we're currently in like 7 wars, right? Like... you know that. The military budget reports are public record.

And not just that but everybody knows a vet who's seen active combat. Like y'all know we are currently at war.

I don't remember a time of peace for the US. I think there was one briefly in the 90s after Yugoslavia but before the war on terror, but I was too little to remember that so as far as I'm concerned I don't know what the US is like when we're not at war. No one in my generation does.

Like what do y'all think those folks fighting ISIS and shit are doing? They ain't larping COD, they're fighting a war.

In my lifetime, I believe that only the Jimmy Carter administration was the only one to not have a war going on during its tenure.

 

[jaF0]

Britain and Spain are still around, no? Russia? Chart seems a wee bit flawed.

 

[jaF0]

Again, a matter of terminology, but while the US is involved in a number of armed conflicts (more than 7), we are not involved in any declared War.

 

[Ovidius]

Has the USA ever managed to fight a war with limited aims? To me it seems as if the US political system can only managed total war followed by "state building".

Good luck with that.

 

[jaF0]

Has the USA ever managed to fight a war with limited aims?

Viet Nam, Korea and most everything current. It's as much about boosting funds to defense suppliers as anything else.

 

[von_Bismarck]

One of my good friends here recently sent me this link via PM and this seems like a good time to share it with someone else:

https://www.docdroid.net/5CdrehR/the-fate-of-empires-by-sir-john-glubb.pdf

In a way, it is very scary, much like The Ominous Parallels.

That you lap up this tripe surprises no one.

 

[Rightguide]

Get rid of the Orange Menace and things will move back towards civilization.

You're full of shit. He's the only reason why we aren't at war right now.

 

[cowslinger64]

You're full of shit. He's the only reason why we aren't at war right now.

In a sea of absolute idiocy and ignorance, your post there reigns supreme.



You really are one dumb sumbitch.

 

[CandiCame]

In a sea of absolute idiocy and ignorance, your post there reigns supreme.



You really are one dumb sumbitch.

WE ARE AT WAR RIGHT NOW! WE ARE IN SEVERAL WARS!

I know these folks are ill-informed but seriously where the fuck do they think the veterans are coming from?

 

[butters]

WE ARE AT WAR RIGHT NOW! WE ARE IN SEVERAL WARS!

I know these folks are ill-informed but seriously where the fuck do they think the veterans are coming from?

huntsville?

https://www.yelp.com/search?cflt=vet&find_loc=Huntsville**C+AL

 

[SpeareChucker]

Y'all know that we're currently in like 7 wars, right? Like... you know that. The military budget reports are public record.

And not just that but everybody knows a vet who's seen active combat. Like y'all know we are currently at war.

I don't remember a time of peace for the US. I think there was one briefly in the 90s after Yugoslavia but before the war on terror, but I was too little to remember that so as far as I'm concerned I don't know what the US is like when we're not at war. No one in my generation does.

Like what do y'all think those folks fighting ISIS and shit are doing? They ain't larping COD, they're fighting a war.

You are conflating war of expansion with conflicts of geopolitical economic politics.
The former is offensive, the latter is defensive in nature.