Syrian Civil War: Is there any way this can end well?

[Kirkrapine]

By "well," I mean an outcome that ends the war and does not result in 1) a restored Ba'athist dictatorship; 2) a radical Islamist dictatorship; or 3) ethnic cleansing.

Here's a good guide to the factions.

Assad is as much a tyrant as Hussein ever was. Iran and Hezbollah are backing him. He is of an Alawite Shi'a minority which would be at extreme risk of ethnic cleansing if his government fell -- which partly explains why he has been so intransigent and uncompromising since this business began.

ISIS is pretty much dead as a military force, but there are several factions in the field who are not much different.

Kurdish Rojava is probably the only faction that can plausibly be classified as "good guys." Their chance of taking over the country is nil, and the Turks are determined to destroy them.

Can anyone think of a way this can end well?

 

[Hal9000_]

Can anyone think of a way this can end well?

Yes. Take out Assad once and for all.

 

[Kirkrapine]

Yes. Take out Assad once and for all.

How would that stop the Islamists from winning -- and then ethnic-cleansing, etc.?

 

[Kirkrapine]

Kurdish Rojava is probably the only faction that can plausibly be classified as "good guys."

And even that's debatable.

The supporters of the region argue that it is an officially secular polity[12][13] based on a libertarian socialist ideology promoting decentralization, gender equality, environmental sustainability and pluralistic tolerance for religious, cultural and political diversity, and that these values are mirrored in its constitution, society, and politics, claiming it to be a model for a federalized Syria as a whole, rather than outright independence.[14][15][16][17][5][18][19] Some of the criticism against the region has included claims of authoritarianism, kurdification, forced recruitment, the imprisonment and harassment of dissidents and journalists, the promotion of a radical anti-capitalist ideology, and influence from the militant Kurdistan Workers Party.[20][21][22][23][24][25][26]

 

[BotanyBoy]

Nope...gonna be a blood bath.

 

[Alicia56]

Syrian civil war

Very complex topic. If Assad gets taken out the Russians and Iranians will just simply take over. Who will be there to fight them? The men have mostly fled the country. The country has been decimated. Remember the scenes of rubble we saw.

 

[Kirkrapine]

Very complex topic. If Assad gets taken out the Russians and Iranians will just simply take over.

No, that's what happens if Assad wins.

 

[phrodeau]

If only there was a stable genius who understands the Middle East more than anybody, and knows how to fix it.

 

[HisArpy]

Nope...gonna be a blood bath.

It always is.

 

[Bigspurt]

As Long As

Intolerance

 

[AngusBridie]

We can sell them weapons to kill themselves that will eventually be used against us down the road in the near future.

Its in the standard US Govt operating procedure manual for foreign aid.

 

[nowisthetime]

Let them sort it out, almost every nation around the world has had a Civil War.

 

[Kirkrapine]

Intolerance

Death to the intolerant!

 

[Dribble]

If only there was a stable genius who understands the Middle East more than anybody, and knows how to fix it.

Snort

 

[DMBFFF]

It's a characteristic of countries that have been under dictatorships for decades: when the dictatorship falls, or nearly falls, it falls hard.



Keep in mind, the media tends to focus on the bad stuff—which to a large extent it should—but I suspect there is some recovery.

Consider the Kurds during most of the 1990s, 00s, and most of 10s: while much of Iraq was a basket case, I hear Kurdistan was doing well.

Ditto ex-Yugoslavia: lots of stuff about Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo (all which I suppose have largely recovered after 20 years); less so Slovenia, Macedonia, the rest of Serbia, Montenegro, and I heard nothing from Vojdvodina (or however it's spelled).

 

[BotanyBoy]

We can sell them weapons to kill themselves that will eventually be used against us down the road in the near future.

Its in the standard US Govt operating procedure manual for foreign aid.

I laughed

 

[hobbit.]

Yes. there is.

should you wish to hire me i will provide the answer.

 

[Kirkrapine]

Yes. there is.

should you wish to hire me i will provide the answer.

I'll pay you in LSD. Wait 30 seconds for download and lick the exact center of your screen.