Remember that bullshit about "peak oil"

[bellisarius]

Lets examine the Economic and Scientific issue of peak oil, using grain and three states Iowa, Kansas and Arkansas (including the Bootheel). All are capable of growing any any grain the want, in fact, they could be self-suffiecient, but this self-sufficiency comes at as expense, the higher cost of locally grown grains on a small scale. In order to minimize cost and growing potential, Iowa best grows corn, Kansas corn and Arkansas rice, at the lowest possible cost and then the three states, which can be grain independent, gain Economically. And when properly managed, the land will produce grains in perpetuity, it even grew grains before man began cultivating them.

It's the same with oil, except we have no direct control over its formation, a process that has been going on well before a lot of your masses of "fossil fuels" that will eventually peak (as in, we're still right, we just got the timeframe wrong).

As in AGW?

 

[Que]

Ask Okies about all the fracking quakes.

Ask Alaskans about the lingering mess from the Exxon Valdez.

Ask Gulf coast residents about the lingering messes from the BP blowout and fire.

I was asking you. You don't know?

 

[SpeareChucker]

*chuckle*

 

[SpeareChucker]

I was asking you. You don't know?

The quake thing has been debunked.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/sc...-10-myths-about-natural-gas-drilling-6386593/

 

[Sean]

The quake thing has been debunked.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/sc...-10-myths-about-natural-gas-drilling-6386593/

Not in that link it isn't.



https://www.theguardian.com/environ...xpect-to-cause-such-serious-quakes-lancashire

 

[SpeareChucker]

Not in that link it isn't.



https://www.theguardian.com/environ...xpect-to-cause-such-serious-quakes-lancashire

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Fracking occurs too deep to cause surface quakes. In Kansas and Missouri (as well as Oklahoma) they have been going on for generations because the area is still geographically active.

See: New Madrid Fault

You might as well blame it on all the underground salt and coal mines.

 

[bellisarius]

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Fracking occurs too deep to cause surface quakes. In Kansas and Missouri (as well as Oklahoma) they have been going on for generations because the area is still geographically active.

See: New Madrid Fault

You might as well blame it on all the underground salt and coal mines.

Did you read the thresholds they've placed on the project. 0.5 on the Richter scale and anything below 2.5 can generally only be detected with a seismometer. A loaded semi at speed will cause more surface ground movement, albeit of a different frequency.

 

[someoneyouknow]

The US consumed approx. 20 million bbls/day this year. Of that 2.4 million was imported. It is projected that next year we will only rely on 1.6 million bpd of imported oil. Further projections call on us to be a net exporter by 2020 if not sooner. You do the math.

Let's try with real numbers from the people who monitor this:

In 2017, the United States imported approximately 10.14 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum from about 84 countries.

In 2017, the United States exported about 6.38 MMb/d of petroleum to 186 countries

More recent numbers:

In the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. imported roughly 10.4 million barrels of petroleum per day,

In the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. exported roughly 7.6 million barrels of petroleum per day.

From 2005 to 2015, the United States’ reliance on petroleum imports fell from 60% to 25% of total consumption,6 while exports increased by over 300%.3 Since 2015, imports have remained fairly steady at approximately 10 million barrels per day, but exports have continued to increase, from 4.7 million barrels per day in 2015 to 7.6 million barrels per day in early-mid-2018. The Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. import reliance for oil will continue to fall over the coming decade.

So again, if we want energy independence, why are we exporting all that independence?

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-oil-does-us-export-and-import

 

[phrodeau]

Let's try with real numbers from the people who monitor this:

In 2017, the United States imported approximately 10.14 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum from about 84 countries.

In 2017, the United States exported about 6.38 MMb/d of petroleum to 186 countries

More recent numbers:

In the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. imported roughly 10.4 million barrels of petroleum per day,

In the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. exported roughly 7.6 million barrels of petroleum per day.

From 2005 to 2015, the United States’ reliance on petroleum imports fell from 60% to 25% of total consumption,6 while exports increased by over 300%.3 Since 2015, imports have remained fairly steady at approximately 10 million barrels per day, but exports have continued to increase, from 4.7 million barrels per day in 2015 to 7.6 million barrels per day in early-mid-2018. The Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. import reliance for oil will continue to fall over the coming decade.

So again, if we want energy independence, why are we exporting all that independence?

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-oil-does-us-export-and-import

We buy the cheap crappy oil from overseas, and sell the good domestic stuff for top dolla.

 

[someoneyouknow]

Fracking occurs too deep to cause surface quakes. In Kansas and Missouri (as well as Oklahoma) they have been going on for generations because the area is still geographically active.

Between the years 1973–2008, there was an average of 25 earthquakes of magnitude three and larger in the central and eastern United States. This rate ballooned to over 600 M3+ earthquakes in 2014 and over 1000 in 2015. Since 2015 the earthquake rate has declined significantly (364 M3+ earthquakes in 2017), but this is still much higher than the natural earthquake rate.

Tell us, what occurred during 2014 - 2015?

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/induced/

Oklahoma orders shutdown of 37 wells after earthquake

Five months before Saturday's 5.6 magnitude temblor in central Oklahoma, government scientists warned that oil and natural gas drilling had made a wide swath of the country more susceptible to earthquakes.

The quake that struck Saturday is at least the second of its size to affect central Oklahoma since 2011.

https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/03/news/economy/oklahoma-earthquake-fracking-oil/index.html

AP: Man-made earthquakes in Oklahoma decline after new regulations

WASHINGTON — The rate of earthquakes in Oklahoma has dropped dramatically since late May, when the state limited wastewater injections into energy wells, an Associated Press statistical analysis shows. And a new scientific study says the state is on its way back to calmer times that prevailed before a huge jump in man-made quakes.
. . .
“The trend is obvious,” said Stanford University professor William Ellsworth. He said the AP numbers were similar, but not identical to a trend he calculated using a different database and different size earthquakes. He said the new regulations were partly responsible for the falloff in earthquakes, but he noted there also has been less drilling because of a crash in oil prices.

Williams of USGS said it is important to put even the reduced one-a-day quakes in context. Before 2009, Oklahoma averaged one magnitude 3.0 earthquake a year; now it is good news that the rate is down to one a day, he said. In 2015, Oklahoma averaged 2.3 magnitude 3.0 or larger quakes a day. In 2014, it was 1.6 per day.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oklahoma-earthquakes-man-made-quakes-decline-after-new-regulations/

This is like talking about all the studies which showed a direct link between smoking and cancer, and the tobacco companies coming up with every excuse why smoking wasn't to blame.

 

[bellisarius]

Let's try with real numbers from the people who monitor this:

In 2017, the United States imported approximately 10.14 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum from about 84 countries.

In 2017, the United States exported about 6.38 MMb/d of petroleum to 186 countries

More recent numbers:

In the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. imported roughly 10.4 million barrels of petroleum per day,

In the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. exported roughly 7.6 million barrels of petroleum per day.

From 2005 to 2015, the United States’ reliance on petroleum imports fell from 60% to 25% of total consumption,6 while exports increased by over 300%.3 Since 2015, imports have remained fairly steady at approximately 10 million barrels per day, but exports have continued to increase, from 4.7 million barrels per day in 2015 to 7.6 million barrels per day in early-mid-2018. The Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. import reliance for oil will continue to fall over the coming decade.

So again, if we want energy independence, why are we exporting all that independence?

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-oil-does-us-export-and-import

The net numbers I quoted are correct and they're from the same source. The better part of what we are exporting is REFINED product, not crude oil. We export because our domestic markets CANNOT absorb all of those ancillary refined products. So what's your plan, flush them down the toilet?

Oh, and you do realize that a great deal of our exported refined product is going to Canada don't you? It's because the Canadians haven't built any fucking refineries since 1984.

 

[BotanyBoy]

Ask Okies about all the fracking quakes.

Ask Alaskans about the lingering mess from the Exxon Valdez.

Ask Gulf coast residents about the lingering messes from the BP blowout and fire.

SO much appeal to emotion.....keep deflecting!!!

 

[HAL_9000]

"The US conventional oil production peaked in 1970 (when the US oil production reached 534 million tons). By 2008, the US oil production declined to 302 million tons. Since then, the US oil production has experienced a spectacular expansion because of the shale oil boom. The US Energy Information Administration projects that the US oil production will keep growing rapidly until 2022, when the US oil production is expected to approach 700 million tons. The US oil production is projected to peak in 2042 at 751 million tons (EIA 2018, Reference Case, Table A1)."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...2050-world-energy-annual-report-part-2?page=1

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/7/27/saupload_blog180725r_thumb1.png

How is peak oil bullshit?

 

[CandiCame]

Because Candi, in the universe of of fossil fuel being compressed into "oil," peak oil would not have been a myth, but a reality, but the earth, not past life, is creating oil making the old theory obsolete and those who still cling to it for reasons of political science don't give a flying fickle finger of fate over Science. In short, biomass has to be subducted and subjected to intense heat and pressure.

No, I mean from the ground up explain this to me. I've never heard this conspiracy or whatever you're talking about before.

I don't know what the fuck "peak oil" is.

 

[trysail]

Before all the art history, English, sociology, poetry, politicos and nutjobs who habituate this place start blowing bullshit about hydrocarbon reserves and resources, you really ought to spend a little time learning about the subject.


Here is the single best piece I've ever read about shale hydrocarbon resources and the incredible technology that's only recently become widely used (in the United States) allowing efficient and economic development:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/13/shale-reservoirs-do-they-work-will-they-spread/
​

It is written in plain language which is easily readable and understandable by laymen.



The quantity of hydrocarbon reserves and resources is a function of price.



​

 

[CandiCame]

"The US conventional oil production peaked in 1970 (when the US oil production reached 534 million tons). By 2008, the US oil production declined to 302 million tons. Since then, the US oil production has experienced a spectacular expansion because of the shale oil boom. The US Energy Information Administration projects that the US oil production will keep growing rapidly until 2022, when the US oil production is expected to approach 700 million tons. The US oil production is projected to peak in 2042 at 751 million tons (EIA 2018, Reference Case, Table A1)."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...2050-world-energy-annual-report-part-2?page=1

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/7/27/saupload_blog180725r_thumb1.png

How is peak oil bullshit?

Oh, wait, is it just like... when extraction and production and shit peaked?

Damn, he coulda told me that instead of spouting bullshit. Yeah, that's obviously a thing. It takes millions of years to make and seconds to use. We peaked before the shortage, right? Like it was a whole big thing? It was before my time but my gramps talks about it.

 

[CandiCame]

Also... that process you described... is how fossil fuel forms. Everything you've said has been super confusing. Like the thing you described, about how pressure and heat compact organic matter into oil and gas? That's... why they're called fossil fuels... because of that process.

So I don't know what you think the conspiracy was.

 

[von_Bismarck]

Also... that process you described... is how fossil fuel forms. Everything you've said has been super confusing. Like the thing you described, about how pressure and heat compact organic matter into oil and gas? That's... why they're called fossil fuels... because of that process.

So I don't know what you think the conspiracy was.

I was a bit confused about this, myself. It's almost like AJ is promoting the idea that hydrocarbon fuel has abiogenic origins, which is only marginally scientific, and hardly substantiated. But I seem to remember AJ talking about this before, so...

 

[phrodeau]

Before all the art history, English, sociology, poetry, politicos and nutjobs who habituate this place start blowing bullshit about hydrocarbon reserves and resources, you really ought to spend a little time learning about the subject.


Here is the single best piece I've ever read about shale hydrocarbon resources and the incredible technology that's only recently become widely used (in the United States) allowing efficient and economic development:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/13/shale-reservoirs-do-they-work-will-they-spread/
​

It is written in plain language which is easily readable and understandable by laymen.



The quantity of hydrocarbon reserves and resources is a function of price.



​

If the best scientific resource you’ve ever found is a website called “Watts up with that” it explains a lot.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Did you read the thresholds they've placed on the project. 0.5 on the Richter scale and anything below 2.5 can generally only be detected with a seismometer. A loaded semi at speed will cause more surface ground movement, albeit of a different frequency.

The frequency and strength of small quakes in this region have been constant for years, hell I've experienced many moderate ones in my lifetime. The only thing that changed is that activists began to count them and then hyperventilate over a normal background reading that almost no one ever paid attention to before, because as you pointed out most of it is only detectable by sensitive equipment.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Also... that process you described... is how fossil fuel forms. Everything you've said has been super confusing. Like the thing you described, about how pressure and heat compact organic matter into oil and gas? That's... why they're called fossil fuels... because of that process.

So I don't know what you think the conspiracy was.

No they are called fossil fuels because of the erroneous science of the 50s. Carbon is subducted in places like the Marianas Trench where it slowly and continually is pushed up and into the land masses from great depths. Look at the fault zones of the Middle East and the great pools of oil in the ground. Look at the evidence of wells that were closed because they were dry, but now have renewed pools of oil. All of that is supposed to be "fossils?"

I don't see that. I see the Science of this century.

 

[SpeareChucker]

No, I mean from the ground up explain this to me. I've never heard this conspiracy or whatever you're talking about before.

I don't know what the fuck "peak oil" is.

Okay Peak Oil is simply this. All oil came from the biomass of millions of years ago, and because of this, we will run out, because it is not being replenished by new huge swamps that last for thousands upon thousands of years.

But as pointed out, it is being replenished and not because of fossils or similar biomass.

 

[SpeareChucker]

"The US conventional oil production peaked in 1970 (when the US oil production reached 534 million tons). By 2008, the US oil production declined to 302 million tons. Since then, the US oil production has experienced a spectacular expansion because of the shale oil boom. The US Energy Information Administration projects that the US oil production will keep growing rapidly until 2022, when the US oil production is expected to approach 700 million tons. The US oil production is projected to peak in 2042 at 751 million tons (EIA 2018, Reference Case, Table A1)."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...2050-world-energy-annual-report-part-2?page=1

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/7/27/saupload_blog180725r_thumb1.png

How is peak oil bullshit?

Because a projection and a pretty picture are not Science, they are a guess (in this case based upon wrong Science of years ago) and we all know what guesses are worth, like all of them that for decades have predicted the death of the earth in 10-20 yers thanks to the activities of man.

 

[Luk]

The frequency and strength of small quakes in this region have been constant for years, hell I've experienced many moderate ones in my lifetime. The only thing that changed is that activists began to count them and then hyperventilate over a normal background reading that almost no one ever paid attention to before, because as you pointed out most of it is only detectable by sensitive equipment.

No, they've been counted for a long time, AJ.

http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Geophysics/Earthquakes/historic.html

 

[DMBFFF]

The quake thing has been debunked.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/sc...-10-myths-about-natural-gas-drilling-6386593/

The term "quake" appears only once in that page and only as a link to another page.

Click it, and I get this:
https://www.popularmechanics.com/sc...g-wastewater-wells-causing-ohios-earthquakes/

But since as far back as the 1960s, scientists have also known that under certain rare circumstances disposing of wastewater in deep-injection wells can trigger earthquakes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_hydraulic_fracturing#Seismicity

Seismicity

Hydraulic fracturing causes induced seismicity called microseismic events or microearthquakes. These microseismic events are often used to map the horizontal and vertical extent of the fracturing.[90] The magnitude of these events is usually too small to be detected at the surface, although the biggest micro-earthquakes may have the magnitude of about -1.5 (Mw).[91]

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

For the few of you who don't know Latin:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Usage notes

The logical fallacy that because something happens after something else, then the first event must be the cause of the second.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc

My English to Latin translation request here:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Wikt...lish_to_Latin_(23:21,_30_November_2018_(UTC))

(Next time, SpeareChucker, maybe you could provide links for your foreign quid pro quos.)

Oh, and you do realize that a great deal of our exported refined product is going to Canada don't you? It's because the Canadians haven't built any fucking refineries since 1984.

Prolly because the industry is more obsessed with pipelines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Canada


One thing I'll grant to the rightists here is geography. Our countries are big, and sometimes situations make imports/exports lucrative.

Free Trade: I love it, Trump hates it, Republicans used to like it, but as most of them have joined Cult 45, they're now siding with their MAGA god emperor.

Also, who do you want to be energy independent of? Third world dictatorships or all oil-producing countries? and even here, there is equivocations, such as GOPers and Trumpsters like bellisaurus siding with the [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism]wahhabis in the Saudi-Iran dispute[/url]—as well as defending their legal system.




Today, the Sun will shine over 34.56 trillion megajoules of solar energy over America. So little of it will be used to drive cars.

(200 w/sq m x 3600 x 6 hours x 8 million sq km x 1 million ÷ 1 quintillion)