Freudian_Slit
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You really have no fucking clue what you're talking about, do you?
Dr David Evans: Global Warming is Manmade?
- Thread starter toubab
- Start date
You really have no fucking clue what you're talking about, do you?
coachdb18
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Breaking News!
The ACLU is filing a lawsuit against the man who first created fire, and in a sub filing is demanding reparations from all generations of his relatives to the present day, stating the creation of fire led to 'the microaggression of man-made Global Warming'. The group is looking into who to blame for the associated warming of Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. They did point out that subsuits for Global Warming on Pluto are on hold, as there is controversy as to whether Global Warming on non-planets can be included as a class action.
The ACLU is filing a lawsuit against the man who first created fire, and in a sub filing is demanding reparations from all generations of his relatives to the present day, stating the creation of fire led to 'the microaggression of man-made Global Warming'. The group is looking into who to blame for the associated warming of Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. They did point out that subsuits for Global Warming on Pluto are on hold, as there is controversy as to whether Global Warming on non-planets can be included as a class action.
phrodeau
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The other planets aren't warming abnormally, dumbass.
trysail
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"Climate $cience" remains a near-perfect example of pseudoscience. The data are so bad that it makes an intelligent observer laugh at the solemn pronouncements of the high priests and credulous sycophants.
...because of latitudinal (temperate zone) and altitudinal (lapse rate) differences, a global average temp[erature] is meaningless. OTH, a global average stationary station anomaly (correctly calculated) is meaningful, especially for climate trends. So useful if the stations are reliable (most aren’t),
On the other hand, useful anomalies hide a multitude of other climate sins. Not the least of which is the gross difference between absolute and ‘anomaly’ discrepancies in the CMIP5 archive of the most recent AR5 climate models. They get 0C wrong by +/-3 C! So CMIP5 not at all useful...
Ishmael
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Did you read the above post Try? Those are salient, if somewhat sarcastic, points. Who's to blame for the warming of the outer planets?
Ishmael
Freudian_Slit
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trysail
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...If this science is really settled, then tell us about:
- Climate models and predicted warming.
- The magnitude of sulfur dioxide cooling in relation to carbon dioxide warming for the net effect.
- The feedback effects of clouds to enhanced warming.
- The relative strength of natural variability versus the enhanced greenhouse effect.
- Sea level rise fifty or one hundred years ago versus today.
- The likelihood of a (moderated) future Ice Age or Little Ice Age in light of the enhanced greenhouse effect.
And this is just the physical science. There are many other questions... to explore the unsettled science that is there...
-Robert Bradley, Jr.
trysail
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The man has committed frickin' heresy on NPR!!
They'll never let David N. Schwartz on NPR again !!
From NPR's 13.7 Cosmos & Culture:
Commentary on Science and Society
What Would Enrico Fermi Think of Science Today?
by David N. Schwartz
https://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2...hat-would-enrico-fermi-think-of-science-today
December 5, 2017
"...At the intersection of science and public policy, on issues like climate change and genetic engineering, Fermi would almost certainly be more reticent. He never enjoyed debating the complex issues of his own day involving science and public policy. He served reluctantly as a government adviser on science policy, but he was always happier in the lab or in the classroom where the physics issues were simpler and answers were either right or wrong.
It's hard to say whether Fermi would be persuaded by the science behind climate change. The models used to simulate climate change are extremely complex and have embedded within them uncertainties that have made some very bright physicists, like Princeton's Freeman Dyson, skeptical of the models themselves..."
It's hard to say whether Fermi would be persuaded by the science behind climate change. The models used to simulate climate change are extremely complex and have embedded within them uncertainties that have made some very bright physicists, like Princeton's Freeman Dyson, skeptical of the models themselves..."
trysail
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JC's (un)motivated reasoning
by Judith Curry, Ph.D.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/12/28/jcs-unmotivated-reasoning/
...At issue is my politics, my ideology, my advocacy, my activism, my civility.
So here goes.
My politics
Politically, I’m an independent. In Presidential elections since 1972, I have voted for Democrats, Republicans and occasionally third party candidates. Unfortunately, I typically find myself voting against the most ‘objectionable’ candidate. One exception was Obama #1; I was a strong supporter and am on public record as having made campaign contributions (I was much less enthusiastic about Obama #2)...
So here goes.
My politics
Politically, I’m an independent. In Presidential elections since 1972, I have voted for Democrats, Republicans and occasionally third party candidates. Unfortunately, I typically find myself voting against the most ‘objectionable’ candidate. One exception was Obama #1; I was a strong supporter and am on public record as having made campaign contributions (I was much less enthusiastic about Obama #2)...
***
I have for many years been a student of the corrosive effects of ideology on science. This was prompted originally by works of Jacob Bronowski, Primo Levi, Charles Mackay, and an abiding interest in the history of I G Farben. As a guide, primarily for myself, I developed a set of characteristics of ideologues, to better recognize and interpret their behavior. (These are based in part on some ideas of John Ralston Saul in his “Unconscious Civilization”).
There are five attributes of ideologues:
1. Absence of doubt
2. Intolerance of debate
3. Appeal to authority
4. A desire to convince others of the ideological “truth”
5. A willingness to punish those that don’t concur
There are five attributes of ideologues:
1. Absence of doubt
2. Intolerance of debate
3. Appeal to authority
4. A desire to convince others of the ideological “truth”
5. A willingness to punish those that don’t concur
-Nick Darby
In the climate communication world, it has become very trendy to wear your political ideology on your sleeve. How many ‘climate science communicators’ can you name that have at least 4 of the above attributes of ideologues with regards to climate change?...
(much) more...
https://judithcurry.com/2017/12/28/jcs-unmotivated-reasoning/
phrodeau
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President Trump states that weather and climate are the same thing.
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-cold-weather-global-warming-a7491a26723a/
That ought to be the last word on the topic.
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-cold-weather-global-warming-a7491a26723a/
That ought to be the last word on the topic.
Yup, as this administration's spokes-persons like to say, "All of that was litigated in the last election." Facts and science are no longer vetted through peer review-- in this new Orwellian world, facts are determined by mob rule.
By the way, don't you love that the justice system has now been politicized to the point that elections are considered the ultimate form of litigation?
someoneyouknow
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Just remember folks, the con artist has said climate change isn't real.
Which is why he explicitly cited it in his application to build a sea wall for his failing Irish golf course:
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-climate-change-golf-course-223436
Which is why he explicitly cited it in his application to build a sea wall for his failing Irish golf course:
“If the predictions of an increase in sea level rise as a result of global warming prove correct, however, it is likely that there will be a corresponding increase in coastal erosion rates not just in Doughmore Bay but around much of the coastline of Ireland. In our view, it could reasonably be expected that the rate of sea level rise might become twice of that presently occurring. … As a result, we would expect the rate of dune recession to increase.”
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-climate-change-golf-course-223436
trysail
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Editorial Narratives in Science Journalism
by Kip Hansen
...When a story — a bit of news, a new journal paper — doesn’t fit the narrative required or desired by the Editors — then there is a problem. If the news is truly Big News and Important — then the journalist has to do his/her best to report it and somehow slip in enough of his/her editor’s narrative to get it accepted and published. We see this a lot in climate stories where the article goes along well enough, reporting some new findings, and then, out of nowhere, comes a line like “Of course, this new study does nothing to cast any doubt about the overwhelming evidence for human-induced climate change which is currently threatening the very existence of our planet.”
We saw this in the recently issued EPA finding on glyphosate (Monsanto’s Round-Up) which declared it not to be a human carcinogen. The news was so far from most MSM’s Editorial Narratives on Monsanto, Round-Up and glyphosate that most MSM journalist simply passed and reported nothing at all! They just couldn’t modify the reality to fit their Editor’s Narrative — some things can’t be spun that far.
My recent ongoing series on Modern Scientific Controversies exposed a good deal of this behavior in the US press — different news outlets ‘taking sides’ in the controversies — evidence of Editorial Narratives driving the reports.
I do not maintain that all newspapers, news agencies, magazines, journals — all MSM outlets — have expressed, written, Editorial Narratives on the topics of our time. Michael Cieply reported that the New York Times does and that the LA Times doesn’t. However, I know from my own work experience that superiors can have strong opinions and expect their workers to reflect those opinions in their work. I have not been a newspaper journalist, but I have been a radio news journalist — and Editors and News Directors have the responsibility to help plan coverage and to read and edit stories before publication or going on-air — and in this process, impose their viewpoint on what the story is and how it is to be told.
We see in the example of the NY Times’ Planet Fat series that the “story” was determined before the journalists were even sent out to find a story — they were sent out to specifically find a story matching the Editorial Narrative. Facts contrary or counter to the narrative are played down or explained away in the series. The series is a fascinating example of how Editorial Narratives play out in the real world, when the ink hits the paper [digital ink hits the display screen?]. If you have the time and inclination, or are interested in the Obesity Epidemic controversy, read the entire series, with the Editorial Narrative as laid by Celia Dugger in the premier article (quoted early in this essay) firmly in mind...
We saw this in the recently issued EPA finding on glyphosate (Monsanto’s Round-Up) which declared it not to be a human carcinogen. The news was so far from most MSM’s Editorial Narratives on Monsanto, Round-Up and glyphosate that most MSM journalist simply passed and reported nothing at all! They just couldn’t modify the reality to fit their Editor’s Narrative — some things can’t be spun that far.
My recent ongoing series on Modern Scientific Controversies exposed a good deal of this behavior in the US press — different news outlets ‘taking sides’ in the controversies — evidence of Editorial Narratives driving the reports.
I do not maintain that all newspapers, news agencies, magazines, journals — all MSM outlets — have expressed, written, Editorial Narratives on the topics of our time. Michael Cieply reported that the New York Times does and that the LA Times doesn’t. However, I know from my own work experience that superiors can have strong opinions and expect their workers to reflect those opinions in their work. I have not been a newspaper journalist, but I have been a radio news journalist — and Editors and News Directors have the responsibility to help plan coverage and to read and edit stories before publication or going on-air — and in this process, impose their viewpoint on what the story is and how it is to be told.
We see in the example of the NY Times’ Planet Fat series that the “story” was determined before the journalists were even sent out to find a story — they were sent out to specifically find a story matching the Editorial Narrative. Facts contrary or counter to the narrative are played down or explained away in the series. The series is a fascinating example of how Editorial Narratives play out in the real world, when the ink hits the paper [digital ink hits the display screen?]. If you have the time and inclination, or are interested in the Obesity Epidemic controversy, read the entire series, with the Editorial Narrative as laid by Celia Dugger in the premier article (quoted early in this essay) firmly in mind...
(quoting exactly five paragraphs, the rest is on-line)
I already knew it was awful; now I discover that it's even worse than I thought.
A horrifying revelation from an extremely bright man, an excellent writer with a keen analytical mind— AND— a former journalist.
trysail
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By god, they've finally admitted it.
The historic temperature record is a fucking mess and is not reliable.
Journal of International Climatology
Towards a global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network
P. W. Thorne, H. J. Diamond, B. Goodison, S. Harrigan, Z. Hausfather, N. B. Ingleby, P. D. Jones, J. H. Lawrimore, D. H. Lister, A. Merlone, T. Oakley, M. Palecki, T. C. Peterson, M. de Podesta, C. Tassone, V. Venema, K. M. Willett
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5458/pdf
...owing to imperfect measurements and ubiquitous changes in measurement networks and techniques, there remain uncertainties in many of the details of these historical changes... act to make the picture less clear than it could be, particularly at the local scale where many decisions regarding adaptation choices will be required, both now and in the future. A set of high-quality long-term fiducial reference measurements of essential climate variables will enable future generations to make rigorous assessments of future climate change and variability, providing society with the best possible information to support future decisions. Here we propose that by implementing and maintaining a suitably stable and metrologically well-characterized global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network, the present-day scientific community can bequeath to future generations a better set of observations...
...Typically, individual station series have experienced changes in observing equipment and practices (Aguilar, Auer, Brunet, Peterson, & Wieringa, 2003; Brandsma & van der Meulen, 2008; Fall et al., 2011; Mekis & Vincent, 2011; Menne, Williams Jr., & Palecki, 2010; Parker, 1994; Sevruk, Ondrás, & Chvíla, 2009). In addition, station locations, observation times, instrumentation, and land use characteristics (including in some cases urbanization) have changed at many stations. Collectively, these changes affect the representativeness of individual station series, and particularly their long-term stability (Changnon & Kunkel, 2006; Hausfather et al., 2013; Karl, Williams Jr., Young, & Wendland, 1986; Quayle, Easterling, Karl, & Hughes, 1991). Metadata about changes are limited for many of the stations. These factors impact our ability to extract the full information content from historical observations of a broad range of essential climate variables (ECVs) (Bojinski et al., 2014). Many ECVs, such as precipitation, are extremely challenging to effectively monitor and analyse due to their restricted spatial and temporal scales and globally heterogeneous measurement approaches (Goodison, Louie, & Yang, 1998; Sevruk et al., 2009).
Changes in instrumentation were never intended to deliberately bias the climate record. Rather, the motivation was to either reduce costs and/or improve observations for the primary goal(s) of the networks, which was most often meteorological forecasting. The majority of changes have been localized and quasi-random in nature and so are amenable to statistical averaging of their effects. However, there have been regionally or globally systemic transitions specific to certain periods of time whose effect cannot be entirely ameliorated by averaging...
...From the perspective of climate science, the consequence of both random and more systematic effects is that almost invariably a post hoc statistical assessment of the homogeneity of historical records, informed by any available metadata, is required. Based on this analysis, adjustments must be applied to the data prior to use. Substantive efforts have been made to post-process the data to create homogeneous long-term records for multiple ECVs (Mekis & Vincent, 2011; Menne & Williams, 2009; Rohde et al., 2013; Willett et al., 2013, 2014; Yang, Kane, Zhang, Legates, & Goodison, 2005) at both regional and global scales (Hartmann et al., 2013). Such studies build upon decades of development of techniques to identify and adjust for breakpoints, for example, the work of Guy Callendar in the early 20th century (Hawkins & Jones, 2013). The uncertainty arising from homogenization using multiple methods for land surface air temperatures (LSAT) (Jones et al., 2012; Venema et al., 2012; Williams, Menne, & Thorne, 2012) is much too small to call into question the conclusion of decadal to centennial global-mean warming, and commensurate changes in a suite of related ECVs and indicators (Hartmann et al., 2013, their FAQ2.1). Evidence of this warming is supported by many lines of evidence, as well as modern reanalyses (Simmons et al., 2017).
The effects of inhomogeneities are stronger at the local and regional level, may be impacted by national practices complicating homogenization efforts, and are more challenging to remove for sparse networks (Aguilar et al., 2003; Lindau & Venema, 2016). The effects of inhomogeneities are also manifested more strongly in extremes than in the mean (e.g., Trewin, 2013) and are thus important for studies of changes in climatic extremes. State-of-the art homogenization methods can only make modest improvements in the variability around the mean of daily temperature (Killick, 2016) and humidity data (Chimani et al., 2017)...
the rest of it...
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5458/pdf
...Typically, individual station series have experienced changes in observing equipment and practices (Aguilar, Auer, Brunet, Peterson, & Wieringa, 2003; Brandsma & van der Meulen, 2008; Fall et al., 2011; Mekis & Vincent, 2011; Menne, Williams Jr., & Palecki, 2010; Parker, 1994; Sevruk, Ondrás, & Chvíla, 2009). In addition, station locations, observation times, instrumentation, and land use characteristics (including in some cases urbanization) have changed at many stations. Collectively, these changes affect the representativeness of individual station series, and particularly their long-term stability (Changnon & Kunkel, 2006; Hausfather et al., 2013; Karl, Williams Jr., Young, & Wendland, 1986; Quayle, Easterling, Karl, & Hughes, 1991). Metadata about changes are limited for many of the stations. These factors impact our ability to extract the full information content from historical observations of a broad range of essential climate variables (ECVs) (Bojinski et al., 2014). Many ECVs, such as precipitation, are extremely challenging to effectively monitor and analyse due to their restricted spatial and temporal scales and globally heterogeneous measurement approaches (Goodison, Louie, & Yang, 1998; Sevruk et al., 2009).
Changes in instrumentation were never intended to deliberately bias the climate record. Rather, the motivation was to either reduce costs and/or improve observations for the primary goal(s) of the networks, which was most often meteorological forecasting. The majority of changes have been localized and quasi-random in nature and so are amenable to statistical averaging of their effects. However, there have been regionally or globally systemic transitions specific to certain periods of time whose effect cannot be entirely ameliorated by averaging...
...From the perspective of climate science, the consequence of both random and more systematic effects is that almost invariably a post hoc statistical assessment of the homogeneity of historical records, informed by any available metadata, is required. Based on this analysis, adjustments must be applied to the data prior to use. Substantive efforts have been made to post-process the data to create homogeneous long-term records for multiple ECVs (Mekis & Vincent, 2011; Menne & Williams, 2009; Rohde et al., 2013; Willett et al., 2013, 2014; Yang, Kane, Zhang, Legates, & Goodison, 2005) at both regional and global scales (Hartmann et al., 2013). Such studies build upon decades of development of techniques to identify and adjust for breakpoints, for example, the work of Guy Callendar in the early 20th century (Hawkins & Jones, 2013). The uncertainty arising from homogenization using multiple methods for land surface air temperatures (LSAT) (Jones et al., 2012; Venema et al., 2012; Williams, Menne, & Thorne, 2012) is much too small to call into question the conclusion of decadal to centennial global-mean warming, and commensurate changes in a suite of related ECVs and indicators (Hartmann et al., 2013, their FAQ2.1). Evidence of this warming is supported by many lines of evidence, as well as modern reanalyses (Simmons et al., 2017).
The effects of inhomogeneities are stronger at the local and regional level, may be impacted by national practices complicating homogenization efforts, and are more challenging to remove for sparse networks (Aguilar et al., 2003; Lindau & Venema, 2016). The effects of inhomogeneities are also manifested more strongly in extremes than in the mean (e.g., Trewin, 2013) and are thus important for studies of changes in climatic extremes. State-of-the art homogenization methods can only make modest improvements in the variability around the mean of daily temperature (Killick, 2016) and humidity data (Chimani et al., 2017)...
the rest of it...
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5458/pdf
Last edited:
Que
aʒɑ̃ prɔvɔkatœr
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You can no longer milk the Feds with a "Bad things are gonna happen to squirrels and it's all the faults of climate change" study by simply throwing "climate change" into the title of your grant application, so clever con artists are going to shift their pitch.
The new pitch is going to be.."You know. ..Mann's fabrications *are* fatallly flawed. Give us a bunch of money and we'll finally be curious enough to look into that."
The new pitch is going to be.."You know. ..Mann's fabrications *are* fatallly flawed. Give us a bunch of money and we'll finally be curious enough to look into that."
trysail
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Game over.
by Monckton of Brenchley
Skeptics 1, Fanatics 0. That’s the final score.
The corrected mid-range estimate of Charney sensitivity, which is equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2 in the air, is less than half of the official mid-range estimates that have prevailed in the past four decades. Transient sensitivity of 1.25 K and Charney sensitivity of 1.45 K are nothing like enough to worry about...
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/clip_image0101.jpg
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/clip_image0044.jpg
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/clip_image0063.jpg
The corrected mid-range estimate of Charney sensitivity, which is equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2 in the air, is less than half of the official mid-range estimates that have prevailed in the past four decades. Transient sensitivity of 1.25 K and Charney sensitivity of 1.45 K are nothing like enough to worry about...
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/clip_image0101.jpg
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/clip_image0044.jpg
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/clip_image0063.jpg
Chancellor_Palpatine
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^ More Watt's (and Monckton) shit, and graphs trysail doesn't have a fucking clue how to read and interpret.
trysail
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Que
aʒɑ̃ prɔvɔkatœr
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^ More Watt's (and Monckton) shit, and graphs trysail doesn't have a fucking clue how to read and interpret.
^ More of Bob impugning the messenger and having no idea whatsoever how to actually refudiate anything that's being discussed.
Chancellor_Palpatine
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http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png
Thanks to tryfuck for pointing out the downward trend in Arctic sea ice volume.
Thanks to tryfuck for pointing out the downward trend in Arctic sea ice volume.
Luk
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Because they can't afford such nice things.
trysail
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Amicus Curiae Brief
Four Conclusions (p. 1):
1. The climate is always changing; changes like those of the past half-century are common in the geologic record, driven by powerful natural phenomena
2. Human influences on the climate are a small (1%) perturbation to natural energy flows
3. It is not possible to tell how much of the modest recent warming can be ascribed to human influences
4. There have been no detrimental changes observed in the most salient climate variables, and today’s projections of future changes are highly uncertain
2. Human influences on the climate are a small (1%) perturbation to natural energy flows
3. It is not possible to tell how much of the modest recent warming can be ascribed to human influences
4. There have been no detrimental changes observed in the most salient climate variables, and today’s projections of future changes are highly uncertain
The professors are accomplished and well-credentialed scientists. William Happer is the Cyrus Fogg Bracket Professor of Physics Emeritus at Princeton University. Dr. Happer also has extensive experience advising the government on energy research and policy, having served President George H.W. Bush’s administration as the director of energy research in the Department of Energy.
Steven E. Koonin is the founding director of New York University’s Center for Urban Science and Progress. Dr. Koonin previously served as the second Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy in President Barack Obama’s administration. In this role, Dr. Koonin oversaw science, energy, and security activities.
Richard S. Lindzen is a Professor Emeritus in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Lindzen’s research involves studies of the role of the tropics in mid-latitude weather and global heat transport, the moisture budget and its eole in global change, the origins of ice ages, seasonal effects in atmospheric transport, stratospheric waves, and the observational determination of climate sensitivity
. Each of the professors has been elected to the prestigious National Academy of Sciences, a highly selective non-profit organization recognizing the country’s most distinguished researchers
. Biographies for the professors appear at the end of Exhibit A to this motion.
http://co2coalition.org/wp-content/...aign=CO2,+A+Climate+Surprise&utm_medium=email
Steven E. Koonin is the founding director of New York University’s Center for Urban Science and Progress. Dr. Koonin previously served as the second Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy in President Barack Obama’s administration. In this role, Dr. Koonin oversaw science, energy, and security activities.
Richard S. Lindzen is a Professor Emeritus in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Lindzen’s research involves studies of the role of the tropics in mid-latitude weather and global heat transport, the moisture budget and its eole in global change, the origins of ice ages, seasonal effects in atmospheric transport, stratospheric waves, and the observational determination of climate sensitivity
. Each of the professors has been elected to the prestigious National Academy of Sciences, a highly selective non-profit organization recognizing the country’s most distinguished researchers
. Biographies for the professors appear at the end of Exhibit A to this motion.
http://co2coalition.org/wp-content/...aign=CO2,+A+Climate+Surprise&utm_medium=email
Luk
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