Fermi's Paradox - refuted? unfounded??

[BoyNextDoor]

Here are the basics of Fermi's Paradox from Wikipedia:

• There are billions of stars in the galaxy that are similar to the Sun,[2][3] many of which are billions of years older than Earth.[4][5]
• With high probability, some of these stars will have Earth-like planets,[6][7] and if the Earth is typical, some might develop intelligent life.
• Some of these civilizations might develop interstellar travel, a step the Earth is investigating now.
• Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way galaxy could be completely traversed in about a million years.

I pretty much grew up on this thinking and SETI and looking up and wondering when Sagan woudl be proved right. BUT - all of a sudden some thinkers at Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics are postulating that we are potentially the elder race, and even premature at that:

"If you ask, 'When is life most likely to emerge?' you might naively say, 'Now,'" says lead author Avi Loeb of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. "But we find that the chance of life grows much higher in the distant future." H/S CFA

So maybe we are alone? Or at least, first.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Our "investigation" is in the fetal stage...



Socialist Luddites might abort that (as per The Sirens of Titan).

 

[Wild_Honey_66]

I came here thinking this would be about Fermina Daza's recent search for the ultimate boy toy.

Never mind.

 

[xbb]

Obama's fault

soon to be

GimpCuntClinton's fault

 

[Not Normal]

I think any of these things is possible. I doubt we are the only planet that has, or will, evolve to this point.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

In a chaotic system, most points are unstable, but a tiny minority of them are stable, since time, and space (maybe even universes) are infinite in number and duration, then not only is everything possible, but more than probable, must exist and be true.

Where, we just don't fucking know, we're still in our infancy.

 

[removed9556]

 

[stickygirl]

The Italians make great pasta and average cars. I go with Tipler who suggested the number of civilizations in a galaxy is less than one. Can't argue with the facts there

 

[removed9556]

 

[pointless]

what the fuck does it matter? it's not like we'll ever know one way or the other. i've got more important shit to worry about.

 

[removed9556]

 

[JohnnySavage]

I've wondered this before. It would be a terrifying responsibility, but a glorious one. And the possibility ought to give us pause if we have any ethical weight whatsoever as a species.

We, through our distant descendants, might be able to shape the multiverse. Or we could destroy ourselves and our planet in a generation or two.

We have lost the courage to think in grand narratives.

Hash could be one of the most advanced life forms in the universe.

 

[removed9556]

 

[M. Jordan]

Here are the basics of Fermi's Paradox from Wikipedia:

• There are billions of stars in the galaxy that are similar to the Sun,[2][3] many of which are billions of years older than Earth.[4][5]
• With high probability, some of these stars will have Earth-like planets,[6][7] and if the Earth is typical, some might develop intelligent life.
• Some of these civilizations might develop interstellar travel, a step the Earth is investigating now.
• Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way galaxy could be completely traversed in about a million years.

I pretty much grew up on this thinking and SETI and looking up and wondering when Sagan woudl be proved right. BUT - all of a sudden some thinkers at
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics are postulating that we are potentially the elder race, and even premature at that:

"If you ask, 'When is life most likely to emerge?' you might naively say, 'Now,'" says lead author Avi Loeb of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. "But we find that the chance of life grows much higher in the distant future." H/S CFA

So maybe we are alone? Or at least, first.

Certainly it has a lot to do with time and distance right? Even if the outer known areas of the universe was inhabited how would we ever know if they are one thousand or one million light years away?

Our understanding of the universe has made great leaps in the last few decades but I believe that we are still a long way from solving that mystery.

 

[Colonel Hogan]

Here are the basics of Fermi's Paradox from Wikipedia:

• There are billions of stars in the galaxy that are similar to the Sun,[2][3] many of which are billions of years older than Earth.[4][5]
• With high probability, some of these stars will have Earth-like planets,[6][7] and if the Earth is typical, some might develop intelligent life.
• Some of these civilizations might develop interstellar travel, a step the Earth is investigating now.
• Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way galaxy could be completely traversed in about a million years.

I pretty much grew up on this thinking and SETI and looking up and wondering when Sagan woudl be proved right. BUT - all of a sudden some thinkers at Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics are postulating that we are potentially the elder race, and even premature at that:

"If you ask, 'When is life most likely to emerge?' you might naively say, 'Now,'" says lead author Avi Loeb of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. "But we find that the chance of life grows much higher in the distant future." H/S CFA

So maybe we are alone? Or at least, first.

Given the untold billions of stars whose collective galactic light has reached us, Fermi's paradox tells us we should have at least heard from someone else by now. The physical constraints of the actual space travel of carbon-based life forms virtually guarantees we will never shake hands with intelligent aliens from another planet, even if such "people" exist. But the likelihood of a species of superior intelligence to ours sending out radio or optical signals over the past few hundred million years is a reasonable probability, even if that civilization has long ago died off. A simple repeating pattern of five or six different permutations would tell us all we need to know.

So where are they? Not a good sign.

 

[M. Jordan]

Given the untold billions of stars whose collective galactic light has reached us, Fermi's paradox tells us we should have at least heard from someone else by now. The physical constraints of the actual space travel of carbon-based life forms virtually guarantees we will never shake hands with intelligent aliens from another planet, even if such "people" exist. But the likelihood of a species of superior intelligence to ours sending out radio or optical signals over the past few hundred million years is a reasonable probability, even if that civilization has long ago died off. A simple repeating pattern of five or six different permutations would tell us all we need to know.

So where are they? Not a good sign.

I do agree with that. But I also wonder, since our civilization has only be able to detect radio signals for about 100 years or so, we may not be listening for the right thing.

 

[Colonel Hogan]

I do agree with that. But I also wonder, since our civilization has only be able to detect radio signals for about 100 years or so, we may not be listening for the right thing.

The wavelengths of the radio spectrum are finite. One can listen across the scope of it. It really shouldn't matter when in our history we invented the ability to listen in. The probability is that someone should still be transmitting despite the number of civilizations which may be long gone and that we'll never know about.

 

[Ishmael]

In a chaotic system, most points are unstable, but a tiny minority of them are stable, since time, and space (maybe even universes) are infinite in number and duration, then not only is everything possible, but more than probable, must exist and be true.

Where, we just don't fucking know, we're still in our infancy.

Current theory (M Theory) more or less postulates this as a certainty. (Who'd a thunk those science fiction writers of 6 decades ago would have been on the right track?)

Our solar system is what, 4.5 billion years old in a universe that is over 13 billion in age. Further, we have NO idea as to where our particular universe falls on the time scale. We just can't pierce that veil of time.........yet.

Recent discoveries indicate that protein strands necessary for the formation of life as we know it are floating throughout the universe. Implying that life is ubiquitous with those strands floating around like seeds only needing to land on fertile ground. Further indicating that that would also be true in other similar universes. (I say similar in that M Theory is 11 dimensional and provides for universes that exist under laws of physics that would make our sort of life form impossible to form, or any life form that did evolve there could never impinge on our universe.)

The implications of Quantum theories are mind boggling teleportation being but one. (This was experimentally done 20 some years ago.) Quantum inseparability being another. (Yet untested experimentally.) And, of course, multiverses making time travel (of a sort) possible.

So while it IS possible that we are the 'seed of life' in this universe, our being the 'seed universe' is a whole different level of speculation.

Ishmael

 

[someoneyouknow]

A recent idea came out that the reason we have not yet found evidence for other life in the universe is because we, our solar system and planet, formed too early.

Essentially, other stars, both larger and smaller, could be developing life but because of those conditions it takes longer. Therefore those life forms haven't developed the capability to produce civilizations which would allow for technology to seen by us (i.e radio waves or lasers).

For all we know there could be millions of planets with life which is either as far as it is going to go or hasn't progressed far enough. Or they're already dead.

 

[Ishmael]

A recent idea came out that the reason we have not yet found evidence for other life in the universe is because we, our solar system and planet, formed too early.

Essentially, other stars, both larger and smaller, could be developing life but because of those conditions it takes longer. Therefore those life forms haven't developed the capability to produce civilizations which would allow for technology to seen by us (i.e radio waves or lasers).

For all we know there could be millions of planets with life which is either as far as it is going to go or hasn't progressed far enough. Or they're already dead.

That's another point entirely. That shifts the discussion to 'intelligent' life. The obverse side of that coin is that highly evolved intelligent life may exist but is beyond our means to detect at our own stage of development.

Ishmael

 

[M. Jordan]

The wavelengths of the radio spectrum are finite. One can listen across the scope of it. It really shouldn't matter when in our history we invented the ability to listen in. The probability is that someone should still be transmitting despite the number of civilizations which may be long gone and that we'll never know about.

A number of scientists have also floated the idea that our time as a listening civilization is too short and that other civilizations have also come and gone before and after us. If our intelligent life span ends up being 250,000 years that's a very short window.

 

[Ishmael]

The wavelengths of the radio spectrum are finite. One can listen across the scope of it. It really shouldn't matter when in our history we invented the ability to listen in. The probability is that someone should still be transmitting despite the number of civilizations which may be long gone and that we'll never know about.

While true, the underlying assumption is that they were transmitting within the window of time we are now listening to. The possibilities are endless as are the alternative means of communication that an advanced civilization may use that we would never be able to tap into.

Ishmael

 

[Phelia]

Potential solutions to/explanations for Fermi's paradox are hardly new (I'm partial to ruminating on the ever popular great filter). It doesn't change the fact that we're just ants walking in circles on a flat disc Speaking of:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/the_search.png

Don't waste time on wikipedia. This is my favorite intro for the uninitiated.

Some of us plan on being immortal Gods, I'll have you know.

Some of us already are, thank you very fucking much. I don't have any evidence that I'm mortal yet. I haven't died once. Twenty-nine years down infinity more to go.

 

[Christobal]

I've always thought that it was human centric to think all life must be like the things we know. If you could pop back a couple of hundred year with all of today's technology you could proclaim yourself a god and rule the world.

Who knows what a life form might be like if we gave up on the idea it will be similar to us.

 

[Ishmael]

Potential solutions to/explanations for Fermi's paradox are hardly new (I'm partial to ruminating on the ever popular great filter). It doesn't change the fact that we're just ants walking in circles on a flat disc Speaking of:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/the_search.png

Don't waste time on wikipedia. This is my favorite intro for the uninitiated.



Some of us already are, thank you very fucking much. I don't have any evidence that I'm mortal yet. I haven't died once. Twenty-nine years down infinity more to go.

How do you know?

Ishmael