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So, the FTSEs up and the Pound's holding steady...

It's all the Italians working in the UK who are worried about sending their earnings to Momma.
 
If the EU is about to collapse, there are simply markets that you do not want to be in.


It's not that hard...
 
geronimo_appleby said:
...Yet the Italian banks are crashing.

Discuss.
Click to expand...

The Washington Post had a good analysis this morning...
Right-wing populists, after all, in France, Italy and the Netherlands have already called for their own referendums on E.U. membership. And if they win, it wouldn't just tear the common market apart but the common currency as well. See, unlike Britain, all those countries use the euro. So if one of them were to leave, two things would happen: First, they'd have to change all the money in their economy, and, second, every other euro country would worry that they'd be next. That, in turn, would set off a slow-motion bank run across Southern Europe as people tried to get ahold of their euros before they could be turned into, say, liras that wouldn't be worth anywhere near as much. It'd be the mother-of-all financial crises. Which is why German, French, Spanish and Italian stock markets all fell much further than Britain's did after it voted to leave. Indeed, those markets dropped 6.8, 8.0, 12.4 and 12.5 percent, respectively, on Friday, while Britain's "only" declined 3.2 percent.
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Long story short: Italy has more to lose than Britain.
 
geronimo_appleby said:
i was sorta implying the brits are too lazy to work and send money home to mamma, but what you said works just as well. :D
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The UK's benefits system is perverse. Those who already work part-time and want to work more can end up being worse off because their benefits are reduced or taken away.

Decades ago I lived in a village surrounded by strawberry fields and fruit farms. At harvesting season the village used to empty as all the mothers, teenagers and unemployed went out strawberry and fruit picking. Although that was taxed income, it was worth their while because the tax bill was spread over the year.

One summer my wife was at home looking after our new baby. She was the recipient of all the parcels for 28 houses which were empty during the day.

Now those fields and fruit farms have immigrant workers because it is no longer financially sensible for the village's women to work for a few weeks a year. They would be penalised by the tax and benefit system.

It's madness!
 
oggbashan said:
The UK's benefits system is perverse. Those who already work part-time and want to work more can end up being worse off because their benefits are reduced or taken away.

Decades ago I lived in a village surrounded by strawberry fields and fruit farms. At harvesting season the village used to empty as all the mothers, teenagers and unemployed went out strawberry and fruit picking. Although that was taxed income, it was worth their while because the tax bill was spread over the year.

One summer my wife was at home looking after our new baby. She was the recipient of all the parcels for 28 houses which were empty during the day.

Now those fields and fruit farms have immigrant workers because it is no longer financially sensible for the village's women to work for a few weeks a year. They would be penalised by the tax and benefit system.

It's madness!
Click to expand...

i can see the darling buds of may - halcyon days. :)
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...king-at-the-ftse-250-and-not-the-ftse-100-to/


"Many companies in the FTSE 100 dig stuff up in Africa, price it in dollars and sell it in China"

These are companies whose shares trade on the London Stock Exchange, but whose operations are far further flung. Credit Suisse recently calculated that the constituents of the FTSE 100 collectively make around three-quarters of their money beyond these shores.

Those revenues are earned in foreign currencies, which must be converted back into sterling for reporting purposes; the weaker the pound, the bigger the relative boost those companies get from those foreign earnings. And sterling has got an awful lot weaker in the last couple of days. This effect has put the brakes on the FTSE 100’s recent slide.
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Furthermore, many of the constituents of the UK’s blue riband index are miners. They dig stuff up in Africa, price it in dollars and sell it in China. That’s a bit of an over-simplification but you get my point: Brexit is very unlikely to directly affect them.

In fact, if the stuff they are digging up is gold, Brexit is actually a positive – investors have been desperately stockpiling the safe haven asset, and the shares of companies who produce it, since Friday morning. Randgold Resources and Fresnillo, both gold miners, have led the FTSE 100 in the past two days, up 26pc and 22pc respectively, and, together with other natural resources stocks, have helped cushion the index. This is not an indication that all is rosy for UK plc.
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and this:

A much better gauge of fears about the UK economy is the FTSE 250, which includes smaller and more domestic-focused companies. It fell 7pc yesterday. This was after it tumbled 7.2pc on Friday, its worst one-day drop since 1987. In total it has now dropped 13.6pc since the Brexit vote. There is no firm definition of what constitutes a stock market crash, but a double-digit dip in two days is getting awfully close.

Banks, house builders and travel stocks have borne the brunt of the pain because they are the most sensitive to the UK economy. Shawbrook, Aldermore, Onesavings Bank and Virgin Money have all lost between 40pc and 50pc of their value. Shares in RBS have fallen around 40pc since the referendum vote and Taylor Wimpey, the UK’s biggest house builder, is off nearly 40pc. Foxtons and easyJet have been the first companies to issue profit warnings in the wake of Brexit.
Click to expand...

so, basically, for companies making most their money abroad, the falling pound means stronger other currencies and so cushions those companies' finances. those trading within the uk tell a different story.
 




"...Eco-fanaticism has already pummeled Europe. In the past ten years, the price of electricity in Europe has climbed by an average of 63 percent. Polling indicates that 38% of British households are cutting back essential purchases like food, to pay high and rising energy bills. Another 59% of homes are worried about how they will pay energy bills when the Paris accord is enforced.

Poor and middle class families are impacted worst of all..."
-Joe D'Aleo​



​
 


The stock market pundits, the talking heads and the amateurs will blame it on BrExit.


But that, of course, is only is a convenient excuse and the objective correlative.


The fact of the matter is that, thanks to the irresponsible near-zero interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, valuations were stretched because capital markets have been distorted (thank you, Janet Yellen).


The truth is that it could have been anything. No one ever knows (in advance) what the proximate cause will be for correcting overvaluation. All you can do is watch valuations, act rationally and wait for the inevitable.


​
 
It's not been a strong enough move to be a correction or a reaction.

I think my first thought was the closest to the truth, with the happy-go-lucky polling, the bookies and the assurances of the politicians and the press, people made financial bets on remain. After it went to leave, they had to correct their aggregate mistake, but that, in and of itself, is not a true market correction do the the Fed and Euro distortions.
 
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