Brexit? What happens now?

[oggbashan]

The referendum vote for the UK to leave has caused a predictable chaos.

England and Wales voted to leave. Scotland voted solidly to stay, as did Northern Ireland with a significant majority not as large as Scotland's.

But the referendum was for the whole of the UK and the overall result is for Leave, confounding the pollsters and most of the establishment.

What happens now?

Predictably, some EU leaders are calling for the UK to act now, today or in the next few days, to start the process of leaving. Apart from the uncertainty that will continue until the UK starts the formal process, some of them are facing significant anti-EU forces within their own countries, and have elections in the near future.

But only the UK government can start the process by formally invoking Article 50. David Cameron has announced his resignation for the Autumn and that he WON'T invoke Article 50. He will leave the negotiation with the EU to his successor.

Article 50 gives a MAXIMUM of two years from start to end of the process of a country leaving including all negotiations. That could be extended if all EU countries agree. That isn't going to happen because of the problems that would cause within several countries. So the process, when started, has to be completed within two years. Given the EU's track record on agreeing trade deals that is a very short time.

The Leave campaigners - the official campaign and Nigel Farage's UKIP who were NOT part of the official campaign - are NOT the UK government and only the UK government can start the process of leaving the EU.

Some EU leaders have said that negotiations cannot start even in outline before Article 50 is invoked by the UK. While that is understandable given their own internal problems, it is impracticable. If they insist on that, the UK government is likely to delay invoking Article 50 for a long time. They could even say that they won't invoke it until after the next General Election - years away. The referendum result does not bind the UK government to a timetable for leaving. Most of the current government, supported by the Labour Party in Parliament, made it clear that they did NOT want to leave the EU. There is NOT a Parliamentary majority to enforce Leave.

The Government could decide to delay for years while the EU gets more and more annoyed with the UK.

What is clear now is that the UK no longer has any influence in the EU from the moment the result of the referendum was announced.

 

[NOIRTRASH]

As always happens, those who can will resist independence as long as possible.

We had something similar occur here. Several years ago we passed a constitutional amendment to limit changes in home tax valuations to 3% per year. Before 2008 home prices were in the grips of inflation but taxes on existing homes were capped at 3%. The liberals were outraged. Then delighted that taxes held steady after the real estate bubble burst and prices fell to 30 year lows.

 

[oggbashan]

There has been a call from some EU leaders for the UK to be asked to vote again.

As yet it is muted, but the EU has a history of rejecting voters' decisions that were inconvenient and wanting a re-run until the 'right' result is reached.

 

[oggbashan]

This post on the GB has a useful summary of the EU's response to democracy:

http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=78426364&postcount=246
"
The EU is like the Hotel California. Up to now voters across Europe have rejected the expansion of the original customs and trade treaty -- limited scope of the original European Economic Community (EEC) -- to no avail. In 1992 Denmark voted against the Maastricht Treaty and was made to vote again, In 2001 Ireland voted against the Nice Treaty and was made to vote again. In 2005 France voted against the EU Constitution and the vote was ignored. In that same year the Netherlands voted against the EU Constitution and, that, too, was ignored, In 2008 Ireland voted against the Lisbon Treaty and was made to vote again. In 2015 Greece voted against the EU bailout and that vote was ignored."

 

[CharlieB4]

The usual.

What happens next? What always happens next when politicians are in charge.

They form a committee to discuss the feasibility of the possible options with a view to consciously decoupling from Europe. In other words fuck all.

With the vote that close they know which ever path they take 50% of the population will hate them forever. Not a position to motivate those hoping to cling to power.

 

[oggbashan]

What happens next? What always happens next when politicians are in charge.

They form a committee to discuss the feasibility of the possible options with a view to consciously decoupling from Europe. In other words fuck all.

With the vote that close they know which ever path they take 50% of the population will hate them forever. Not a position to motivate those hoping to cling to power.

It was suggested by one pundit before the vote that if it was to leave, the current government and parliament would ignore the result.

I wouldn't be surprised. A large majority of MPs are for Remain.

 

[Nathan_Brazil]

Now I'm just an unwashed American, but to me, it seems as if Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain because they have a long history of feeling conquered by England. They've learned, the hard way, how to be a part of something they can't control. A more adult reaction, if you will.

If either or both leave the U.K. to remain in the club they prefer...the E.U., then I see England and Wales becoming even more insular as time goes on.

And poorer...

And more irrelevant...

It will drive the xenophobes mad.

Just a guess...

 

[Scotsman69]

I can't speak for the situation in Northern Ireland, which is greatly complicated by the political divide between unionist (traditionally protestant) and nationalist (traditionally catholic) communities. Except to note that as the nationalists do not yet constitute a majority of the population, though demography suggests they will in the not-too-distant-future; it seems certain that a significant proportion of the traditionally unionist electorate must have voted to remain.

In Scotland the situation is completely different. Anecdotal evidence - all I have to go on at present - is that the victory of the Little Englanders south of the border, and in parts of Wales, has already driven many Scots who voted against Independence two years ago, to support it now. It is even possible that the membership of the SNP will become larger than that of the UK Tory party in the foreseeable future. It is currently about two-thirds as large as the Tories in membership terms, and the Tories draw their membership from a population of 65m, whilst the SNP has just over 5m to draw on.

The disappearance of the UK, and the removal of several important business headquarters to an independent Scotland which will, one way or another, remain in the EU, are now inevitable.

The merger of Northern Ireland with the Irish Republic seems to me a rather longer-term consequence of 'Brexit', though I stand to be corrected by those with better knowledge of the politics of that island.

Now I'm just an unwashed American, but to me, it seems as if Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain because they have a long history of feeling conquered by England. They've learned, the hard way, how to be a part of something they can't control. A more adult reaction, if you will.

If either or both leave the U.K. to remain in the club they prefer...the E.U., then I see England and Wales becoming even more insular as time goes on.

And poorer...

And more irrelevant...

It will drive the xenophobes mad.

Just a guess...

 

[Bad_Doggie]

They could even say that they won't invoke it until after the next General Election - years away.

My preferred option would be that an election should be called as soon as the political parties sort themselves out; so that we can elect a government to navigate the current shit storm.

At least we can then hold those accountable for their bullshit claims.

Only then should we invoke Article 50.

Cameron slipping out the back door and Boris slipping in to carry out a whole range of policies that no one voted for is bullshit of the first order.

Woof!

 

[oggbashan]

My preferred option would be that an election should be called as soon as the political parties sort themselves out; so that we can elect a government to navigate the current shit storm.

At least we can then hold those accountable for their bullshit claims.

Only then should we invoke Article 50.

Cameron slipping out the back door and Boris slipping in to carry out a whole range of policies that no one voted for is bullshit of the first order.

Woof!

I am tempted to agree with you. The current MPs are overwhelmingly for remain in the EU. Asking them to negotiate an exit seems pointless.

 

[oggbashan]

One (Labour) MP is now asking that the Westminster Paraliament should ignore the result of the referendum and vote to STAY in the EU.

There is a majority among the current MPs for Remain, so if they wanted to ignore the largest vote in recent history - they could. Technically the referendum is advisory, not something that HAS to be implemented.

That would confirm people's distrust not just of EU unelected commissioners but of politicians of the EU and UK.

 

[domroger]

One (Labour) MP is now asking that the Westminster Paraliament should ignore the result of the referendum and vote to STAY in the EU.
.

If that were to happen I don't see MP who voted to stay being reelected .That would boost the chances of UKIP becoming a larger party than Labour .

 

[Scotsman69]

This is all I need to tell you about what will happen to London's much-vaunted role as the biggest financial centre in the world.

Edinburgh and Glasgow between them are already the UK's second largest financial centre. And unlike London, they will remain in the EU. So guess where the smart money will migrate?

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news...ndon-finance-crown/ar-AAhE1ye?ocid=spartandhp

 

[NOIRTRASH]

As a rule politicians and societies create crises that cant be fixed but by slaughter and destruction. As the niggers and ragheads spill over the border to kill us we'll know what to do.

 

[underguy1]

Project Fear will remain in overdrive for as long as it takes to have a crack at reversing the popular vote.

The Blairites in the PLP will try to oust Corbyn prior to the Chilcott Report being released under the cover of the Brexit vote.

If they succeed, it's hard to see Labour as a continuing political force in UK politics. The Labour heartland loathes the neoliberal Blairites with a passion.

 

[NOIRTRASH]

Project Fear will remain in overdrive for as long as it takes to have a crack at reversing the popular vote.

The Blairites in the PLP will try to oust Corbyn prior to the Chilcott Report being released under the cover of the Brexit vote.

If they succeed, it's hard to see Labour as a continuing political force in UK politics. The Labour heartland loathes the neoliberal Blairites with a passion.

Cosmic Justice 101

No regime or society ever covers the ass of everyone. And where the haves and havenots touch is a fault line that must fracture.

 

[DeYaKen]

The referendum vote for the UK to leave has caused a predictable chaos.

England and Wales voted to leave. Scotland voted solidly to stay, as did Northern Ireland with a significant majority not as large as Scotland's.

But the referendum was for the whole of the UK and the overall result is for Leave, confounding the pollsters and most of the establishment.

What happens now?

Predictably, some EU leaders are calling for the UK to act now, today or in the next few days, to start the process of leaving. Apart from the uncertainty that will continue until the UK starts the formal process, some of them are facing significant anti-EU forces within their own countries, and have elections in the near future.

But only the UK government can start the process by formally invoking Article 50. David Cameron has announced his resignation for the Autumn and that he WON'T invoke Article 50. He will leave the negotiation with the EU to his successor.

Article 50 gives a MAXIMUM of two years from start to end of the process of a country leaving including all negotiations. That could be extended if all EU countries agree. That isn't going to happen because of the problems that would cause within several countries. So the process, when started, has to be completed within two years. Given the EU's track record on agreeing trade deals that is a very short time.

The Leave campaigners - the official campaign and Nigel Farage's UKIP who were NOT part of the official campaign - are NOT the UK government and only the UK government can start the process of leaving the EU.

Some EU leaders have said that negotiations cannot start even in outline before Article 50 is invoked by the UK. While that is understandable given their own internal problems, it is impracticable. If they insist on that, the UK government is likely to delay invoking Article 50 for a long time. They could even say that they won't invoke it until after the next General Election - years away. The referendum result does not bind the UK government to a timetable for leaving. Most of the current government, supported by the Labour Party in Parliament, made it clear that they did NOT want to leave the EU. There is NOT a Parliamentary majority to enforce Leave.

The Government could decide to delay for years while the EU gets more and more annoyed with the UK.

What is clear now is that the UK no longer has any influence in the EU from the moment the result of the referendum was announced.

For various reasons none of the member states want Britain to leave and as long as we are "in negotiation" we are still in. This means the process could go on for ten years or more.

If we are honest it was always Boris Johnson's intention to hold a second referendum he almost said as much at the beginning of the campaign. "I don't have anything against the EU as such. I just don't think much of the deal the prime minister has secured" and "The EU never gives anything until someone says NO"

The plan was to secure a leave vote, wait for Cameron to invoke Article 50 as he said he would and resign. Boris could then have contested and won the leadership. His first act would be to go back to the EU and renegotiate. He would then return telling us all about the wonderful new concessions he had won and ask us to vote again OR with parliament's approval, stop the process altogether. Don't forget, the referendum is not legally binding.

Cameron has now torpedoed that plan by leaving it to his successor to invoke article 50. If that successor is Boris he will be in the position of trying to leave and stay at the same time.

There is another possibility. Following a period of further negotiation, we could hold a general election. Labour would support a policy of retracting the article fifty, the Lib Dems are already doing so. If the Tory party unite behind a new deal, whoever wins claims they have a mandate from the public to remain in the EU. politics is a dirty game.

 

[someoneyouknow]

What happens now? Britain prepares to leave:

http://66.media.tumblr.com/0970558d42e3d97ee9a25bcde57eaff5/tumblr_o9fe4nmPc81rq1pj8o1_500.jpg

 

[Hard_Rom]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/brexit-alternatives-1.3653317

Desperately seeking alternatives to Brexit financial mess

As if the first one didn't get them into enough trouble, Britons are calling for a second referendum. A third if you count another Scotland vote to leave an increasingly dis-United Kingdom. People who voted to leave are saying they didn't realize the implications, as the nations governed by the mother of parliaments in London begin to tear apart and the country's dominance as Europe's financial centre is threatened.

Many said they thought the Remain side was so sure to win they only voted Leave to give the government a scare. The turnout at 72 per cent was high by the standards of modern electoral voting.

Nonetheless other critics complain that the narrow margin of victory for the Leave side combined with the fact that more that a quarter of those eligible didn't vote means the U.K. is being torn apart by a relatively small group.

Many people, including the founders of the U.S. constitution, feared that voting each issue by popular consent, sometimes called government by referendum, would create confused and irreconcilable outcomes, says Harvard scholar Jennifer L. Hochschild.

Many politicians and scholars have long maintained that unschooled voters can be manipulated into making decisions that are against their or their country's national interests. They are just not properly informed

At stake is one of the founding issues of the British constitution, the Sovereignty of Parliament. That means that neither the Queen, the courts, nor even a referendum can stand in the way of what the elected representatives decide.

By itself the referendum has no legal binding power. Opponents will make the case that for such a staggering eventuality, which could include the dissolution of the historic United Kingdom, a referendum is not enough. Britain needs an election.

Perhaps that is why that wily political operator, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is in no rush to impose Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that would seal the British divorce from the EU. Merkel knows that in politics, it is never too late for reconciliation.

Or in the words of that other great political commentator, Yogi Berra, "It ain't over till it's over."

 

[NOIRTRASH]

I suggest we have gladiator contests for every issue. Let two Goliath/Amazons slash and beat each other until one dies.

 

[oggbashan]

One more statistic:

Those who voted Remain have been complaining that oldies influenced the vote unfairly.

The turnout of registered voters under 35 years old was 58%, much less than for those over 35. The younger the registered voter, the less likely it was that they voted - either way.

So it wasn't the oldies who swung the vote to Leave. It was the youngsters who didn't bother to vote at all.

There had been a sustained campaign by both sides and from independent bodies to get people to register to vote in the referendum. Many tens of thousands, particularly younger people, did register. But too many of them did not vote. One suggestion was that they could register on line but to vote they actually had to go to a Polling station and use a pencil. That was too hard for an on line generation.

Again- treat those figures with caution. Those are from post-vote polling not the actual voting figures.

EDITED FOR:

The statistics that older voters were much more for Leave and many registered younger voters didn't vote come from the same single data source. That source is probably unreliable. The basic data is simple. Both of the conclusions are guesswork.

 

[JackLuis]

John Oliver uses Brexit as cautionary tale against electing Trump: ‘There are no f*cking do-overs’

After using last week’s episode of Last Week Tonight to urge British voters to reject Brexit, — which will lead the U.K. to abandon the European Union — host John Oliver looked at the disastrous passage and aftermath in an effort to school Americans about the consequences of a Trump presidency.

Noting the massive disruption to the British economy, Oliver took a step back to the evening of the referendum to show that many U.K. voters had no idea what they were voting on — and had buyer’s remorse the following day.

“Basically, it seems like whoever the next U.K. prime minister is going to be, whether it’s [former London mayor] Boris Johnson or a racist tea kettle, they are going to be in for a rough few years, because once they invoke what’s known as Article 50, they’ll have just two years to negotiate their withdrawal and future relationship with the EU,” explained Oliver. “On top of which, they’ll have to settle outstanding bills with the EU, hammer out new trade bills with dozens of countries, sift through thousands of EU regulations and decide which ones to keep, and figure out how migration will work—and all the while, lives hang in the balance.”

Oliver hammered UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, and Johnson (“a shaved orangutan with Owen Wilson’s hair”), both of whom promoted the passage of the referendum with both also declaring its passage, “Independence day.”

“First, Britain was already independent. In fact, it’s what many other countries celebrate their independence from,” Oliver said. “And second, the sequel to the movie they’re quoting [Independence Day: Resurgence] actually opened this week and features the wholesale destruction of London – which is beginning to feel pretty f*cking appropriate now.”

 

[NOIRTRASH]

Back in the 1920s H.L.Mencken said Germany wont be happy till it runs all of Europe like a prison. And nothing has changed in a century.

 

[oggbashan]

John Oliver uses Brexit as cautionary tale against electing Trump: ‘There are no f*cking do-overs’

No do-overs? See post #4 above. The EU has a poor record on accepting democratic votes.

 

[RUlookingup]

John Oliver uses Brexit as cautionary tale against electing Trump: ‘There are no f*cking do-overs’

Fuck smarmy John Oliver