April 2016 Poll: USA President Prediction

[RobDownSouth]

(Filling in for MIA Jesse Pinkman)
Tracking our predictions monthly.

Again, this is not who you want to win, but who you predict will win.

Discussions welcome.

Link to February poll
Link to January poll
Link to December poll

 

[RobDownSouth]

I think Hillary will win the general eleciton. Best of a weak field.

I don't think the Republicans will nominate Trump, Cruz OR Kasich. I think we'll see somebody else selected by the Republican nabobs. Might be Ryan or even Romney again.

 

[lovecraft68]

I think Hillary will win the general eleciton. Best of a weak field.

weak field is the understatement of the year her and Trump make the two most disgusting front runners in history. I think Sanders is the best of the three by far, but America loves dishonestly it seems.

 

[Hypoxia]

I think Hillary will win the general eleciton. Best of a weak field.

I don't think the Republicans will nominate Trump, Cruz OR Kasich. I think we'll see somebody else selected by the Republican nabobs. Might be Ryan or even Romney again.

Total agreement. With a caveat: Hillary *might* be indicted, in which case we'd have President Sanders facing a hostile Congress.

I also think it likely that if/when the GOP bosses screw Tromp, he'll go indy and *really* break the party to pieces, pitting doctrinaire 1%ers vs pissed-off blue-collars vs mad-dog racists-rednecks-evangelicals. Nice job, Donald! That should deliver Congress back to the Dems.

 

[Liar]

Total agreement. With a caveat: Hillary *might* be indicted, in which case we'd have President Sanders facing a hostile Congress.

I also think it likely that if/when the GOP bosses screw Tromp, he'll go indy and *really* break the party to pieces, pitting doctrinaire 1%ers vs pissed-off blue-collars vs mad-dog racists-rednecks-evangelicals. Nice job, Donald! That should deliver Congress back to the Dems.

The noise I hear from some is that if The Donald gets the nomination, it'll cost Republicans the Senate, maybe even the House.

The noise I hear from others is that if The Donald gets denied the nomination, it'll cost Republicans the Senate, maybe even the House.

So... yeah.

 

[Hypoxia]

The noise I hear from some is that if The Donald gets the nomination, it'll cost Republicans the Senate, maybe even the House.

The noise I hear from others is that if The Donald gets denied the nomination, it'll cost Republicans the Senate, maybe even the House.

So... yeah.

Damn, what's the name of that chess position where any move you make, loses?

 

[sr71plt]

Damn, what's the name of that chess position where any move you make, loses?

Checkmate.

I can't see that the chaos in the Republican campaign points to the Democrats taking over either the Senate or House.

I see the Cantor phenom setting in. Because of both Trump and Cruz, I see candidates on the congressional level who are either Tea Party or crazier running for Republican nominations for Senate and House seats and winning both the primaries and the seats. I see a lot of establishment Republicans being knocked out but even crazier "Republicans" (like Bratt, the Tea Partiest who knocked out Cantor in my neighboring congressional district) winning through. And I don't see them as compromising in business for anyone who takes the presidency.

 

[RobDownSouth]

By now it's pretty obvious that, barring a catastrophe, a Democrat will win the presidential election of 2016.

The Senate? The Democrats might win, but they have to have a net gain of 5 seats to stop Republican obstructionism. The Republican "No Negro Voting" initiative is key to stopping the takeover (they don't have the raw numbers to win outright, and the number of angry white males over 50 gets smaller every cycle).

There is no way in hell the Democrats can win the House. The Republicans began seriously gerrymandering the holy hell out of the states beginning in 2010. It will take a generation to undo that damage.

 

[Five_Inch_Heels]

Pat Paulson

 

[Hypoxia]

Checkmate.

No, I found it. Zugzwang!

I see the Cantor phenom setting in. Because of both Trump and Cruz, I see candidates on the congressional level who are either Tea Party or crazier running for Republican nominations for Senate and House seats and winning both the primaries and the seats. I see a lot of establishment Republicans being knocked out but even crazier "Republicans" (like Bratt, the Tea Partiest who knocked out Cantor in my neighboring congressional district) winning through.

In polarized and gerrymandered districts, yes. In contentious districts, maybe not so much. Depends on how GOP voter turnout is depressed, how many are nauseated by the clusterfuck, how many want to keep believing the impossible promises of bagheads.

 

[Five_Inch_Heels]

Damn, what's the name of that chess position where any move you make, loses?

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play" -Joshua/WHOPR

 

[sr71plt]

No, I found it. Zugzwang!

Not "no." Maybe Zugzwang as well, but when you can't make a move in chess without losing, it's a Checkmate, which is what you asked. So, you may have been thinking of another word, but my word answered your question.

 

[Liar]

By now it's pretty obvious that, barring a catastrophe, a Democrat will win the presidential election of 2016.

The Senate? The Democrats might win, but they have to have a net gain of 5 seats to stop Republican obstructionism. The Republican "No Negro Voting" initiative is key to stopping the takeover (they don't have the raw numbers to win outright, and the number of angry white males over 50 gets smaller every cycle).

There is no way in hell the Democrats can win the House. The Republicans began seriously gerrymandering the holy hell out of the states beginning in 2010. It will take a generation to undo that damage.

There are many more Republican senate seats up for contest than Democrats, something like 25 to 10. And a fair amount in purple states. If they split the pot, they take the Senate. Not impossible, but there are many unknowns so far. All predictions are moot imo until Cleveland.