Burning Down The House!

[JackLuis]

Trump and Ryan compete for control of the GOP

Paul Ryan never intended to fight Donald Trump for control of the Republican Party.

Months before the New York celebrity businessman emerged as the front-runner for the GOP nomination, the House speaker anticipated the chance the presidential contest that might leave the party fractured and aimless. According to aides, Ryan decided to take preemptive action. House Republicans would try to chart their own course, independent of their eventual presidential nominee — on policy, defining what the party stands for, and how they communicate with voters.

But as Trump inches closer to the nomination, he and Ryan are increasingly competing for dominance over the party. Neither is backing down.

Rep. Tom Price, the Georgia Republican who followed Ryan as Budget Committee chairman, said the speaker's strategy is less an attempt to create "a contrast with any presidential candidate" than it is seizing the mantle of leadership. "He and I have talked about for years about the importance of having the House be the idea-generation factory."

Better replace your "Gomerts" if you want good ideas.

 

[Hypoxia]

GOP leadership (including Ryan) are owned by the 1% donor class who have righteously screwed the GOP blue-collar base. Tromp speaks to that base. Likely outcome: Ryan's clique will get the money while Tromp gets the votes.

 

[NOIRTRASH]

GOP leadership (including Ryan) are owned by the 1% donor class who have righteously screwed the GOP blue-collar base. Tromp speaks to that base. Likely outcome: Ryan's clique will get the money while Tromp gets the votes.

And Hillary gets her money from WALNART bell ringers.

 

[BotanyBoy]

And Hillary gets her money from WALNART bell ringers.

Democrats love to pretend about that one.

 

[JackLuis]

So with all the focus on the Presidential fiasco, will the Rethuglicans retain the House in the midst of the Rethuglican parties meltdown?

Will the disgust for Trump and Cruz stain the Congressional races, or will the Representatives run away from the crazy? Can they distance themselves from Trump and be Republicans instead of Rethuglicans?

Will the Democrat candidates embrace Hillary or Bernie? Can they run without choosing one or the other?

What will be the implications of 2016 on the 2018 mid-terms?

 

[Hypoxia]

So with all the focus on the Presidential fiasco, will the Rethuglicans retain the House in the midst of the Rethuglican parties meltdown?

Will the disgust for Trump and Cruz stain the Congressional races, or will the Representatives run away from the crazy? Can they distance themselves from Trump and be Republicans instead of Rethuglicans?

Will the Democrat candidates embrace Hillary or Bernie? Can they run without choosing one or the other?

No good answers, mainly because much can and will happen before Election Day. Maybe the GOP machine will screw Tromp at the convention. Maybe Hillary will be indicted. Maybe some totally unexpected event (disaster? attack? miracle?) will twist the campaign's path.

What will be the implications of 2016 on the 2018 mid-terms?

If a Dem wins the White House while GOPs retain congressional control and continue obstructing, Dems may be able to drum-up outrage and take congress in 2018. But some suggest we might see breakdowns of both parties by then, schisming into interest groups detached from traditional ideologies, oriented on class and age. What we WON'T see is a return to 200 years ago when the major parties briefly merged in an "era of good feelings".

 

[JackLuis]

-
What we WON'T see is a return to 200 years ago when the major parties briefly merged in an "era of good feelings".

Never underestimate the flexibility of the Establishments to protect their own power.

 

[JackLuis]

Hoyer: Trump nomination would bring Dems 'substantial' gains

The restive political milieu that's given rise to Donald Trump will only benefit Democrats in November, Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Tuesday.

Hoyer, the Democratic whip, said Trump's combative campaign — and the sharp GOP split over the merits of his bid — will alienate voters and fuel "substantial" gains for House Democrats at the polls.

"Democrats are in good shape," Hoyer told reporters in the Capitol. "I think we are, in fact, doing better. I think the environment is better for us. And I think we're going to pick up a substantial number of seats."

Hoyer pointed to a New York Times survey released Tuesday that found 60 percent of Republicans are "mostly embarrassed" by their party's presidential campaign, while just 13 percent of Democratic respondents feel the same about the race between Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of State, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

"Why?" Hoyer asked. "Because on our side you have a very substantive debate between two obviously qualified candidates."

By contrast, Hoyer claimed, the top Republican contenders — Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) — are sending a vitriolic message that fuels doubts about whether they have the temperament to run the country.

"I don't think any of them are showing to the American people the responsibility that's necessary," Hoyer said.

As the Trump/Cruz feud continues and if the convention get out of hand will Americans jump to the Demo's for salvation in the House races?

 

[sr71plt]

I don't see this Democratic advantage in congressional elections in November. Voters are rejecting everyone, Rs and Ds alike, in Congress. This is a Tea Party argument, and I see Tea Partiers and more crazy even than that doing well in November--and continuing to caucus with whatever Republicans are left. Hope it's otherwise, I just don't see a reason for Democratic optimism. (Guess I could pretend, like the Bernie fanatics are doing on the presidential primary campaign.)

And I wonder if Bernie Sanders will go back to being an independent and paying no dues to the Democrats.

 

[patient1]

I don't know what the tickets will look like.
Who does?

There's a lot of potential scenarios to make voters stay home this year, or split a ticket. Maybe even split a party.

Lots of people say they'll vote for Trump or Bernie this time, not a traditional candidate. With potential indictments looming over Trump and Clinton who knows how that will play out.


I am sure that Trump will hurt the GOP slate by making diehard Republicans stay home rather than vote for somebody they feel will bring down the party as it's leader, and the country as president. He will hurt it even more in the midterms should he be elected.

 

[JackLuis]

I don't see this Democratic advantage in congressional elections in November. Voters are rejecting everyone, Rs and Ds alike, in Congress. This is a Tea Party argument, and I see Tea Partiers and more crazy even than that doing well in November--and continuing to caucus with whatever Republicans are left. Hope it's otherwise, I just don't see a reason for Democratic optimism. (Guess I could pretend, like the Bernie fanatics are doing on the presidential primary campaign.)

And I wonder if Bernie Sanders will go back to being an independent and paying no dues to the Democrats.

If the Democrats across the board point to the do-nothing incumbents and come out for change, they may have a chance of re-winning the house, long odds though. At best they decrease the majority and gather momentum for 2018.

Bernie will bring out the youth voters and progressives that ignored the 2010 election and to a large extent the 2012 as well. If we can see 85%+ participation in the election, that could shift the seats in a lot of districts.

 

[BotanyBoy]

And I wonder if Bernie Sanders will go back to being an independent and paying no dues to the Democrats.

You mean playing DNC fuck fuck games to line his pockets at the expense of the citizenry the way the absolute scum you support does?

Yea he's probably not going to, he's better than that.

 

[Hypoxia]

GOP legislators have mostly gerrymandered themselves (and Dems) into pretty safe districts as evinced by the general lack of turnover or even challenge to many seats. Such gerrymandering means the party receiving 40% of votes statewide wins 60% of races. Even California's new open primary, where the top two go on to the general election regardless of party, reinforces the partisanship -- I'll see only GOP candidates for my rural house seat in November.

The gerrymandering, and voter suppression and disenfranchisement, were built at the state level because SCOTUS allowed and encouraged it. A Sanders SCOTUS might decide that "equal protection" and "one-person-one-vote" actually apply nationwide and overrule discriminatory state measures. And that corporations are not persons.

Absent such a major revision, the GOP are pretty much entrenched against popular will. They know they can't survive free and fair elections. Can the nation survive their hatred?

 

[Boxlicker101]

Hoyer: Trump nomination would bring Dems 'substantial' gains



As the Trump/Cruz feud continues and if the convention get out of hand will Americans jump to the Demo's for salvation in the House races?

I doubt it. As voters peruse the major party choices - Trump and Clinton - they'll say something like: "My god, can't we do better than these bums?" Then they'll either vote against the one they think is worse, vote for a third-party candidate or ignore the presidential part of the election. However it goes, if people bother to go to the polls, they will still vote for other offices and ballot measures.

 

[sr71plt]

If the Democrats across the board point to the do-nothing incumbents and come out for change, they may have a chance of re-winning the house, long odds though. At best they decrease the majority and gather momentum for 2018.

I think that's the way it should work--that Democrats shouldn't have a share in the blame for Congress' "just say no whenever Obama says yes" policies for eight years. But I don't believe in the intelligence of the majority of voters to see that. They certainly don't seem to be seeing it at the present.

 

[JackLuis]

I think that's the way it should work--that Democrats shouldn't have a share in the blame for Congress' "just say no whenever Obama says yes" policies for eight years. But I don't believe in the intelligence of the majority of voters to see that. They certainly don't seem to be seeing it at the present.

Perhaps that is because the Demo's are not really pushing the issue, I mean like every day, every hour, every time they get an interview. With less than a 20% approval rating Congress should be raked over the coals continuously by the media!

 

[sr71plt]

The hinting has been that they are letting the Republicans show just how ridiculous it is and will then use it as a hammer in the actual campaign period, but it remains to be seen how well they will do it. Their view of a big segment of the voters (that anyone--in big numbers--would support someone like Trump, Cruz, or even Rubio at all) might be that Americans have become too much "I'm mad as hell and won't take it anymore" even to try to be rational with. I might be shell shocked on this because I live the next district over from where the voters dumped Cantor because he wasn't obstructionist enough and went for a classic "just say no and no I don't have any ideas/solutions myself" Tea Partier, Bratt.

 

[Hypoxia]

What should happen: Doesn't matter.

What could happen: Overwhelming anti-GOP votes could shake things up a little.

What will happen: Reapportionment and redistricting of congressional and state districts is performed at the state level, most often by polarized legislatures, sometimes with court or citizen-committee guidance. State houses and governorships must go Dem before GOP gerrymandering can be undone. Those lawmakers have given themselves and their heirs safe havens from competition. IMHO only a radical SCOTUS can change that.

 

[sr71plt]

State houses and governorships must go Dem before GOP gerrymandering can be undone. Those lawmakers have given themselves and their heirs safe havens from competition. IMHO only a radical SCOTUS can change that.

The second is happening, so the first isn't completely true. The recently GOP gerrymandered Virginia district is about to be undone by the Supreme Court, made possible because the appellate court threw it out and the Supreme Court, currently 4-4 thanks to the Republicans, is probably going to deadlock on the vote and thus affirm the appellate court decision.

 

[JackLuis]

Democrats Aim to Retake House

The odds are long in a Rethuglican gerrymandered age.

Republicans have their largest House majority since the Great Depression, thanks to sweeping electoral gains over the last six years. But Donald Trump’s rise has led to concerns about the fate of Republican candidates down the ballot this fall and whether his divisive candidacy and lack of Republican unity will cost the GOP seats in Congress.

Democrats have enthusiastically tied Republican lawmakers to Trump for months, and the hypothetical Trump ticket became a reality last week when the billionaire businessman all but secured the Republican nomination earlier than most expected.

 

[NOIRTRASH]

Republicans will stay home if they wanna help Hillary take all the guns, fill every school with gay pedos, and offshore lots jobs to Cuba. And that's Trumps campaign in a nutshell.

 

[Boxlicker101]

Democrats Aim to Retake House

The odds are long in a Rethuglican gerrymandered age.

They've done it in the past, as has the GOP. Whichever is in power at a given time will try to stay in power ad gerrymandering is one of the methods used.