Five_Inch_Heels
Unexpected
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- Nov 28, 2015
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When it's your time to go ....
- Thread starter Five_Inch_Heels
- Start date
...
Why don't you two take it back over to the Playground and work it out?
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
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- Nov 8, 2005
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It has happened before but the odds are, admittedly, astronomical (
).
Last edited:
Hard_Rom
Northumbrian Skald
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No properly documented deaths. 1-700k, same chance of dying in an amusement park
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorite#Meteorites_in_history
There are several reported instances of falling meteorites having killed people and livestock, but a few of these appear more credible than others. The most infamous reported fatality from a meteorite impact is that of an Egyptian dog that was killed in 1911, although this report is highly disputed. This meteorite fall was identified in the 1980s as Martian in origin. There is substantial evidence that the meteorite known as Valera (Venezuela 1972, see Meteorite fall) hit and killed a cow upon impact, nearly dividing the animal in two, and similar unsubstantiated reports of a horse being struck and killed by a stone of the New Concord fall also abound. Throughout history, many first and second-hand reports of meteorites falling on and killing both humans and other animals abound. One example is from 1490 AD in China, which purportedly killed thousands of people.[55] John Lewis has compiled some of these reports, and summarizes, "No one in recorded history has ever been killed by a meteorite in the presence of a meteoriticist and a medical doctor" and "reviewers who make sweeping negative conclusions usually do not cite any of the primary publications in which the eyewitnesses describe their experiences, and give no evidence of having read them".
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/10/13/death-by-meteorite/#.VrjpsGB0zIU
Astronomer Alan Harris has made that calculation. Allowing for the number of Earth-crossing asteroids — the kind that can hit us because their orbits around the Sun intersect ours — as well as how much damage they can do (which depends on their size), he calculated that any person’s lifetime odds of being killed by an asteroid impact are about 1 in 700,000.
One out of seven hundred thousand! That’s still pretty low… and certainly not enough to lie awake at night worrying about it.
But there are a few important things to consider.
1) A big asteroid is rare, but one bigger than about 10 km across would kill everyone, all 6 billion of us. That skews the odds. If one of those hit every 100 million years, then your lifetime odds of dying in an impact is 100 million years divided by 70 years = 1 in 1.5 million.
A small impact might happen 1000x more often (every 100,000 years), but might only kill 1/1000th as many people, so the odds are roughly the same. Weird.
2) We are lousy at understanding low probability events. I know that 1 in 700,000 is a ridiculously low probability, but it’s hard to grasp. As a comparison, you’re more likely to die in a fireworks accident. But what’s funny is, this is a slightly higher chance than being killed by a terrorist! Despite propaganda to the contrary, the odds of any given person being killed by a terrorist attack are incredibly low. While terrorist attacks in the long run are a near certainty, the odds of you getting killed are very low.
It’s like the lottery: someone wins every time (eventually), but chances are it won’t be you.
Worrying about preventing a terrorist attack is a good idea, but (unless you work in a high-risk job) worrying specifically about dying in one is not*.
Incidentally, you have about the same odds as being killed on an amusement park ride. Wheee!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorite#Meteorites_in_history
There are several reported instances of falling meteorites having killed people and livestock, but a few of these appear more credible than others. The most infamous reported fatality from a meteorite impact is that of an Egyptian dog that was killed in 1911, although this report is highly disputed. This meteorite fall was identified in the 1980s as Martian in origin. There is substantial evidence that the meteorite known as Valera (Venezuela 1972, see Meteorite fall) hit and killed a cow upon impact, nearly dividing the animal in two, and similar unsubstantiated reports of a horse being struck and killed by a stone of the New Concord fall also abound. Throughout history, many first and second-hand reports of meteorites falling on and killing both humans and other animals abound. One example is from 1490 AD in China, which purportedly killed thousands of people.[55] John Lewis has compiled some of these reports, and summarizes, "No one in recorded history has ever been killed by a meteorite in the presence of a meteoriticist and a medical doctor" and "reviewers who make sweeping negative conclusions usually do not cite any of the primary publications in which the eyewitnesses describe their experiences, and give no evidence of having read them".
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/10/13/death-by-meteorite/#.VrjpsGB0zIU
Astronomer Alan Harris has made that calculation. Allowing for the number of Earth-crossing asteroids — the kind that can hit us because their orbits around the Sun intersect ours — as well as how much damage they can do (which depends on their size), he calculated that any person’s lifetime odds of being killed by an asteroid impact are about 1 in 700,000.
One out of seven hundred thousand! That’s still pretty low… and certainly not enough to lie awake at night worrying about it.
But there are a few important things to consider.
1) A big asteroid is rare, but one bigger than about 10 km across would kill everyone, all 6 billion of us. That skews the odds. If one of those hit every 100 million years, then your lifetime odds of dying in an impact is 100 million years divided by 70 years = 1 in 1.5 million.
A small impact might happen 1000x more often (every 100,000 years), but might only kill 1/1000th as many people, so the odds are roughly the same. Weird.
2) We are lousy at understanding low probability events. I know that 1 in 700,000 is a ridiculously low probability, but it’s hard to grasp. As a comparison, you’re more likely to die in a fireworks accident. But what’s funny is, this is a slightly higher chance than being killed by a terrorist! Despite propaganda to the contrary, the odds of any given person being killed by a terrorist attack are incredibly low. While terrorist attacks in the long run are a near certainty, the odds of you getting killed are very low.
It’s like the lottery: someone wins every time (eventually), but chances are it won’t be you.
Worrying about preventing a terrorist attack is a good idea, but (unless you work in a high-risk job) worrying specifically about dying in one is not*.
Incidentally, you have about the same odds as being killed on an amusement park ride. Wheee!
Tryharder62
Keep Believing
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- Jan 27, 2012
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- 12,752
Crap, now I have something else to fear.
Hard_Rom
Northumbrian Skald
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- Apr 24, 2014
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- 13,623
Crap, now I have something else to fear.
Stay away from amusement parks!
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