Canary in the coalmine?

[toubab]

http://www.courier-journal.com/stor...tt-bevin-kentucky-governor-election/74327130/

"Bevin leads GOP wave, routs Conway"

"Matt Bevin became the first governor from Louisville in a century and Lt. Gov.-elect Jenean Hampton became the first African American to win statewide office in Kentucky on Tuesday as Bevin led a near-Republican rout of state constitutional offices.

Democrat Jack Conway failed to roll up the large margin in Jefferson County he needed and couldn't minimize losses elsewhere as Matt Bevin grabbed large margins throughout the rest of the state. Republicans followed suit in the races for treasurer, agriculture commissioner and auditor and won as well.

With 100 percent of the vote counted, Bevin led Conway with 53 percent of the vote compared to the Democrat's 44 percent - a near landslide.

Independent Drew Curtis got almost 4 percent."

"Bevin won despite the fact that some Republicans feared he didn't make inroads with the GOP establishment in the state and didn't work closely with the state party apparatus to build a cohesive get out the vote effort. Still, in some ways he had the wind at his back in the election.

President Barack Obama has low approval numbers in the state, in large part due to environmental policies that are seen as being bad for the coal industry.

And while Bevin originally ran largely on economic issues, his campaign pivoted toward social issues as the gay marriage issue blew up in Kentucky with a federal judge sending Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis to jail because of her refusal to issue marriage licenses. Bevin called for Gov. Steve Beshear to issue an executive order freeing Davis of the responsibility of issuing the licenses and even had his photo taken with Davis.

State Senate President Robert Stivers, a fellow Republican, called Bevin's win a "total repudiation" of the Democratic Party in Kentucky as well as Obama's policies on coal and healthcare.

Mat Staver, founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel, which represented Davis in her legal battles, also claimed that Bevin's victory was due in part to the Davis saga.

“The people favor traditional values and marriage, and they are tired of the political elites represented by Governor Beshear who are out of touch with ordinary, God-loving citizens," he said.

As governor, Bevin has called for an austere budget to pay down Kentucky’s state worker pension program’s unfunded liability, and he has promised to move new teachers over to a 401k type program rather than a traditional pension. As governor, Bevin has promised to do away with the Kynect insurance portal, rescind the state’s Medicaid expansion and push for the Kentucky General Assembly to institute pro-business policies like so-called right-to-work and lawsuit reform.

The victory was near complete with Bevin winning all but 14 of Kentucky's 120 counties, including stalwart Democratic counties like Pike and Woodford."


This could be an important milestone in judging the political climate of the country. Polls consistently showed the Democrat winning by five. He lost by nine. A near landslide for the Republican, despite the fact Democrats almost never lose the governorship in Kentucky. And despite the fact the Republican who won was hit with everything but the kitchen sink during the campaign. Didn't matter. He doggedly tied the Democrat to Obama at every turn, and that seemed to work very, very well, in the end.

 

[ms_ann_thrope]

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o43/Laura_History/humorous/animated/godfather-strumming-banjo.gif

 

[Que]

What do you make of the 14 point differential between polling and voting? I'm beginning to wonder if the electorate can be reached to poll them. I certainly am not reachable by anyone that I have not specifically given contact information to. I doubt I am that unusual in this day and age. Who answers random calls anymore?

 

[toubab]

What do you make of the 14 point differential between polling and voting? I'm beginning to wonder if the electorate can be reached to poll them. I certainly am not reachable by anyone that I have not specifically given contact information to. I doubt I am that unusual in this day and age. Who answers random calls anymore?

It's interesting that most of the major polls were done primarily by calling people on landlines, which is supposed to favor Republicans, according to some. They consistently had the Democrat leading by five, and were way off the mark. I think polling is no longer accurate, for some reason. Maybe it's no longer possible to poll the right mix of people.

Another interesting thing about this election is Kentucky elected a black female Republican who is married to a white male as Lt. Governor. Kentucky.

 

[NOIRTRASH]

Pollsters are inept OR collecting their shit from the ghetto. I imagine theyre all over the ghetto like crack. Polling isn't honest anymore.

 

[toubab]

Pollsters are inept OR collecting their shit from the ghetto. I imagine theyre all over the ghetto like crack. Polling isn't honest anymore.

I'm relatively sure there is some degree of dishonesty in polling, and relatively sure there is some degree of ineptitude as well, but this is a complicated subject that's difficult to quantify. Politics is a nasty business, so it shouldn't be surprising that political polling is as well. Anybody who thinks it's easy for the average Joe or Jill to tell what's going on, and easy to tell who are the good guys and who are the bad guys is dreaming. Here's an interesting article on who likes and supports voter suppression and why, for example:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-suppress-the-vote/

"How Democrats Suppress The Vote"

 

[pensivepoet]

It's interesting that most of the major polls were done primarily by calling people on landlines, which is supposed to favor Republicans, according to some. They consistently had the Democrat leading by five, and were way off the mark. I think polling is no longer accurate, for some reason. Maybe it's no longer possible to poll the right mix of people.

Another interesting thing about this election is Kentucky elected a black female Republican who is married to a white male as Lt. Governor. Kentucky.

Yeah, they've never been able to figure out which side they're on.
Remember, they're the only state to secede AFTER the civil war was over.
Lincoln said, "I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky. To lose Kentucky is to lose the whole game"
And he was right. Kentucky was pivotal and remained loyal to the union-until the war was over.
It's a state that cannot be figured out through logic or sense.

 

[toubab]

Yeah, they've never been able to figure out which side they're on.
Remember, they're the only state to secede AFTER the civil war was over.
Lincoln said, "I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky. To lose Kentucky is to lose the whole game"
And he was right. Kentucky was pivotal and remained loyal to the union-until the war was over.
It's a state that cannot be figured out through logic or sense.

Well, Kentucky kind of seceded in 1861, and kind of didn't. They were actually admitted into the Confederacy in December of that year, but didn't really join it, officially. They didn't know which way to go, so didn't much go anywhere. Can't really say I blame them. It was a difficult time.

 

[NOIRTRASH]

Plenty of states had similar problems. US50 is the real Mason Dixon Line, and cuts thru many Mid West states. My Johnsons were in Illinois and Missouri when the war came along. All of them came from Virginia to the Mid West. And all of them sat the war out.

 

[toubab]

Plenty of states had similar problems. US50 is the real Mason Dixon Line, and cuts thru many Mid West states. My Johnsons were in Illinois and Missouri when the war came along. All of them came from Virginia to the Mid West. And all of them sat the war out.

The country seems very divided again, at least politically. Here's another take on what happened yesterday in Kentucky, and elsewhere:

http://www.fredericknewspost.com/pu...cle_d48f1bcf-11ed-51ec-ba76-acbf7a711825.html

"GOP wins across South in state elections"

"Kentucky voters on Tuesday elected just the second Republican in four decades to hold the governor’s office, in a race that hinged largely on President Barack Obama’s signature legislation, the Affordable Care Act.

The result was a potentially troubling sign for Democrats ahead of next year’s presidential election and represented a big win for the GOP as it continues to consolidate political power across the South. Democrats were also thumped in Virginia, where they made a costly push to win a majority in one chamber of the state Legislature.

The governor’s race in Kentucky was the highest-profile contest in Tuesday’s off-year elections. The only other gubernatorial campaign was in Mississippi, where Republican Gov. Phil Bryant easily won re-election.

Elsewhere, Houston voters defeated a closely watched ordinance that would have established nondiscrimination protections for gay and transgender people in the city, and Ohio voters rejected an initiative that sought to legalize the recreational and medicinal use of marijuana.

In Kentucky, Republican businessman Matt Bevin had waged a campaign to scale back the state’s Medicaid expansion that was made possible under the federal health care overhaul. Some 400,000 lower-income people who gained health coverage under the expansion could be affected.

Bevin ran as an outsider, emphasizing his Christian faith along with his support for Kim Davis, the Rowan County clerk jailed for refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

His Democratic opponent, two-term Attorney General Jack Conway, embraced Obama’s health care reforms, saying hundreds of thousands of residents could lose access to taxpayer-funded insurance if Bevin won.

Around the country, several high-profile ballot initiatives tested voter preferences on school funding, marijuana, gay and lesbian rights, and the sharing economy. Despite the relatively low number of races, the results could be an important bellwether of sentiment ahead of next year’s presidential elections.

In Virginia, a swing state, Democrats failed in an expensive bid to take control of the state Senate and empower Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe in negotiations with Republicans who control the state House. With the losses in Virginia and Kentucky, it was a rough Election Day for Democrats.

“I don’t think you can point to one singular issue as to why these defeats happened tonight, but it’s an opportunity for Democrats to recalibrate and continue to develop a plan and a strategy to win in 2016,” said Tharon Johnson, who led Obama’s 2012 re-election effort in the South and helps oversee finances for the Democratic National Committee."

 

[Aella_]

The country seems very divided again, at least politically."

Create several political parties, so that people end up fighting between themselves and feeling that they have choices and power.
When, in fact, the bottomline is the same: the same oligarchy is pulling all the strings, behind the scenes.

Same shit, different country…

 

[toubab]

Create several political parties, so that people end up fighting between themselves and feeling that they have choices and power.
When, in fact, the bottomline is the same: the same oligarchy is pulling all the strings, behind the scenes.

Same shit, different country…

I think part of the problem is we only have two political parties, for all intents and purposes.

 

[Que]

"An opportunity to recalibrate..."

Lol. That's one way to look at having your ass handed to you: an opportunity. Whole concept of recalibration is insipid. What they're saying is they want to remain in power and they're going to think of a new thing to pretend to believe in in order to stay in power.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

http://www.courier-journal.com/stor...tt-bevin-kentucky-governor-election/74327130/

"Bevin leads GOP wave, routs Conway"

"Matt Bevin became the first governor from Louisville in a century and Lt. Gov.-elect Jenean Hampton became the first African American to win statewide office in Kentucky on Tuesday as Bevin led a near-Republican rout of state constitutional offices.

Democrat Jack Conway failed to roll up the large margin in Jefferson County he needed and couldn't minimize losses elsewhere as Matt Bevin grabbed large margins throughout the rest of the state. Republicans followed suit in the races for treasurer, agriculture commissioner and auditor and won as well.

With 100 percent of the vote counted, Bevin led Conway with 53 percent of the vote compared to the Democrat's 44 percent - a near landslide.

Independent Drew Curtis got almost 4 percent."

"Bevin won despite the fact that some Republicans feared he didn't make inroads with the GOP establishment in the state and didn't work closely with the state party apparatus to build a cohesive get out the vote effort. Still, in some ways he had the wind at his back in the election.

President Barack Obama has low approval numbers in the state, in large part due to environmental policies that are seen as being bad for the coal industry.

And while Bevin originally ran largely on economic issues, his campaign pivoted toward social issues as the gay marriage issue blew up in Kentucky with a federal judge sending Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis to jail because of her refusal to issue marriage licenses. Bevin called for Gov. Steve Beshear to issue an executive order freeing Davis of the responsibility of issuing the licenses and even had his photo taken with Davis.

State Senate President Robert Stivers, a fellow Republican, called Bevin's win a "total repudiation" of the Democratic Party in Kentucky as well as Obama's policies on coal and healthcare.

Mat Staver, founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel, which represented Davis in her legal battles, also claimed that Bevin's victory was due in part to the Davis saga.

“The people favor traditional values and marriage, and they are tired of the political elites represented by Governor Beshear who are out of touch with ordinary, God-loving citizens," he said.

As governor, Bevin has called for an austere budget to pay down Kentucky’s state worker pension program’s unfunded liability, and he has promised to move new teachers over to a 401k type program rather than a traditional pension. As governor, Bevin has promised to do away with the Kynect insurance portal, rescind the state’s Medicaid expansion and push for the Kentucky General Assembly to institute pro-business policies like so-called right-to-work and lawsuit reform.

The victory was near complete with Bevin winning all but 14 of Kentucky's 120 counties, including stalwart Democratic counties like Pike and Woodford."


This could be an important milestone in judging the political climate of the country. Polls consistently showed the Democrat winning by five. He lost by nine. A near landslide for the Republican, despite the fact Democrats almost never lose the governorship in Kentucky. And despite the fact the Republican who won was hit with everything but the kitchen sink during the campaign. Didn't matter. He doggedly tied the Democrat to Obama at every turn, and that seemed to work very, very well, in the end.

Here's another way of looking at things that I found interesting:

http://www.americanthinker.com/arti...ting_over_leadership_and_democrats_arent.html

Especially paragraphs 4-7. Remember, the Alphabets are Democrat institutions through and through.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

What do you make of the 14 point differential between polling and voting? I'm beginning to wonder if the electorate can be reached to poll them. I certainly am not reachable by anyone that I have not specifically given contact information to. I doubt I am that unusual in this day and age. Who answers random calls anymore?

I saw some pollsters saying the same thing not too terribly long ago.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I'm relatively sure there is some degree of dishonesty in polling, and relatively sure there is some degree of ineptitude as well, but this is a complicated subject that's difficult to quantify. Politics is a nasty business, so it shouldn't be surprising that political polling is as well. Anybody who thinks it's easy for the average Joe or Jill to tell what's going on, and easy to tell who are the good guys and who are the bad guys is dreaming. Here's an interesting article on who likes and supports voter suppression and why, for example:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-suppress-the-vote/

"How Democrats Suppress The Vote"

I think dishonesty and incompetence are mitigated by the fact that to be a credible pollster, you have to be in the ballpark.

 

[toubab]

I think dishonesty and incompetence are mitigated by the fact that to be a credible pollster, you have to be in the ballpark.

A fourteen point miss is not what I call in the ballpark, and there have been many examples over the last five or six years of misses even greater than that.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

But the root cause of that is the paradigm shift from landlines and phone books to a more fluid cell-phone community that, in a case like mine, averages a new phone number every two years or so. It is not dishonesty and incompetence, but lack of a broad and representative sample. As Query pointed out, if I do not recognize the caller number, I don't answer. It's always robo-calls and other dumb-assery...

 

[toubab]

But the root cause of that is the paradigm shift from landlines and phone books to a more fluid cell-phone community that, in a case like mine, averages a new phone number every two years or so. It is not dishonesty and incompetence, but lack of a broad and representative sample. As Query pointed out, if I do not recognize the caller number, I don't answer. It's always robo-calls and other dumb-assery...

The major polls in the Kentucky governor's race were taken primarily by phone over landlines, which is supposed to be a favorable situation for good numbers for the Republican candidate. The polls were still wrong. Way wrong. There's something other than a shift from landlines to cell phones at work, although that is undoubtedly part of the problem. Bottom line, polling is just not as accurate as it once was, whatever the reason, or reasons. That's a fact.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

I dispute the idea that it is good for Republicans.



Most of the people with landlines are..., well, if you can't say something nice...

 

[toubab]

I dispute the idea that it is good for Republicans.



Most of the people with landlines are..., well, if you can't say something nice...

Apparently some of them are liars.

(Seriously, I think some people are deliberately lying to pollsters.)

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

This is somewhat true and a result of PC Bully (think South Park).



Some people have become so intimidated by the Socialist hate machine that they give the pollsters answers that will make them look like they are in tune with the "dominating" culture (please note that I did not say dominant) and save themselves from any possible grief or retaliation, after all, whoever is on the other end of that phone has your number.

 

[toubab]

This is somewhat true and a result of PC Bully (think South Park).



Some people have become so intimidated by the Socialist hate machine that they give the pollsters answers that will make them look like they are in tune with the "dominating" culture (please note that I did not say dominant) and save themselves from any possible grief or retaliation, after all, whoever is on the other end of that phone has your number.

Exactly.

 

[Wrong Element]

What a surprise to see our two most prominent "I'm not a Republican" Republicans chatting happily away in this thread.

I'll just point out that it's rather obvious that a Democrat can be elected President without winning any of the hillbilly states, and leave it at that.

 

[richard_daily]

What a surprise to see our two most prominent "I'm not a Republican" Republicans chatting happily away in this thread.

I'll just point out that it's rather obvious that a Democrat can be elected President without winning any of the hillbilly states, and leave it at that.

File under "ouch"