One Last Look At The Economy Before It Implodes

[unregistered]

 

[Adre]

From Forbes:


Well, no, it seems that the price fall is because of an increase in supply, not a fall in demand. And, of course, that means that shipping around those raw materials is going to be cheaper in the future. That’s a good sign for future economic growth. Other things being equal cheaper transport will mean more trade and this more of that Smithian (or even Ricardian, dependent upon comparative advantage) growth.

It’s Scott Sumner who keeps telling us that we should never reason from a price change. And his point isn’t that price changes don’t mean anything, it’s that we want to know why the price change before trying to reason about it. It could be that a fall in the Baltic Dry means a reduction in demand for shipping. It could be that it means an increase in the supply of it. It would appear that it’s the latter. And other than a few ship owners who might now regret having ordered more ships that’s actually good news, not bad, for the global economy.

 

[KingOrfeo]

And why we should be paying attention to the Baltic Dry Index:


One last look at the real economy before it implodes

Posted on March 2, 2015 by Brandon Smith

We are only two months into 2015, and it has already proven to be the most volatile year for the economic environment since 2008-2009. We have seen oil markets collapsing by about 50 percent in the span of a few months (just as the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE3, indicating fiat money was used to hide falling demand . . .

Any source that refers suspiciously to "fiat money" is automatically suspect.

 

[unregistered]

 

[unregistered]

 

[Adre]

Or there could be a moderate expansion of supply and a similar reduction in demand, hardly a recipe for implosion. I realize that you tinfoil beanie types love your doom and gloom sky is falling predictions, so feel free to worry yourself into a heart attack if you must.

 

[KingOrfeo]

You most certainly are out of your mind, and have zero clue about supply and demand.

I have more than a few clues about alternatives to "fiat money."

 

[unregistered]

 

[Disgustipated]

Next time vettebirther cries about a "leftist link", let's point him to the front page of the site he linked:

http://personalliberty.com/

Ben Crystal: Losing the war on poverty

Fifty-one years later, and the Democrats took time out of their busy schedule of lying, cheating, stealing and calling everyone who notices “racist!” to raise a soy latte in honor of LBJ’s war on poverty.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

Or most likely it could just be a drop in demand for the resources shipped by sea that are used in the production of goods no longer in big demand by consumers in the marketplace.

Also the U6. If demand for labor increased the U6 would rise.

 

[phrodeau]

Sounds like we need a lot more government regulation, doesn't it?

 

[KingOrfeo]

Sounds like we need a lot more government regulation, doesn't it?

Of what, in this instance?

 

[Que]

So, how would you like to parcel that out? 1/2 and half? Lets assume for the sake of discussion that a massive buildup of new ships caused a 30% drop in prices. I would think there would be a handy chart about how suddenly all these ships got built. Wait, wouldn't the ships need raw material and labor to build them? Wouldn't those ships be reflected iin someones GDP? Well never mind all that, lets pretend there were enough ships built in just the last year to accomplish that.

Wouldn't a 30% drop in prices due to less finished goods and raw materials being shipped also be a staggering amount?

What other explanation is there? Maybe people are buying gods produced in their area and made from raw materials locally sourced? Then there should be a noticeable increase in the numbers of domestic manufacturing and mining and there isn't.

The problem is the concept of an "information and service" economy. We cannot all work for Google and Walmart advising about and selling each-other goods made elsewhere.

The Cowslingers of the world will say 'look for the 'made in 'murica, preferably union made label." That goes against the most fundamental of economic principles, substitution. If an individual has the choice between roughly similar goods it is against his best interest, personally, to buy the overpriced one.

The extortion practices of organized labor with the collusion of the NRLRB and the cost of record-keeping and compliance with millions of pages of federal, state and local regulations is the difference.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Or there could be a moderate expansion of supply and a similar reduction in demand, hardly a recipe for implosion. I realize that you tinfoil beanie types love your doom and gloom sky is falling predictions, so feel free to worry yourself into a heart attack if you must.

Articles with titles that include the word "Implosion" feed quite nicely into the Obese Cowardly Marine's beloved Doomsday scenarios.

 

[BotanyBoy]

So we are back to the economy is going to implode any day now?

Isis is coming for grandma any second is no longer the fear of the week?

 

[Adre]

So we are back to the economy is going to implode any day now?

Isis is coming for grandma any second is no longer the fear of the week?

Our Lit lunatic fringe is not happy unless a crisis of epic proportions is visible in the rear view mirror.

 

[BotanyBoy]

Our Lit lunatic fringe is not happy unless a crisis of epic proportions is visible in the rear view mirror.

Shit would be funny if they didnt' actually have political power to use that kind of fear mongering to cram their tyrannical bullshit down my pee hole with he force of law and attempt to do so regularly.

You know because they like so much limited government and freedom.......

 

[dan_c00000]

Forget for a second that everything Brandon Smith writes, thinks, or claims is completely and totally wrong (and has been that way for a while now, just look at some of his old "articles").

I couldn't even find a reference to him having a college degree much less a PhD in the field like most real economists have.

 

[IrezumiKiss]

Our Lit lunatic fringe is not happy unless a crisis of epic proportions is visible in the rear view mirror.

Wasn't there supposed to be some ebola-infected Muslims/Taliban/ISIS terrorists riding shotgun with the hordes of illegal Mexican kids crossing our southern borders or was that just killer bees?

 

[JackLuis]

Back on topic'

I suppose it is only a matter of time before the Republican Congress completely fucks up the economy.

I'd go long on Defense Industry Stock.