M
Mister_Chris
Guest
Ms. Clinton is the 'presumptive' nominee for the Democrats... but she's not the confirmed nominee. She hasn't yet declared her candidacy. And truthfully, I don't think running would be a good idea.
First, the Democrats are unlikely to win in 2016, regardless of who is at the helm. Since 1960 (and possibly earlier) we've had two terms of one party followed by two terms of the other. The singular exception was Jimmy Carter in 1980, who failed to secure a second term for the Democrats; and Reagan/Bush senior, who together secured three terms for the Republicans. Given the recent loss of the Senate to the Republican party, it seems easy to predict that this 56 year long cycle will continue.
Secondly, running - first as a party candidate, then as a presidential candidate - is expensive, and time and energy consumptive. Much of the money will come from donations, but some will come from her pocket; and all of the time and energy will come from her. She'll be giving up a year of her life to run for a position in which the tide of history is running against her.
She might well look at the writing on the wall, and decide to spend the next year doing something else. She's already experienced one major loss, at the hands of Mr. Obama in 2008. I doubt she wishes to experience another such loss.
Were the Republican party to nominate an obviously brain dead candidate - a lobotomized Sarah Palin, or some similarly awful candidate; AND Ms. Clinton was effective at getting the female vote out; AND Mr. Obama enthusiastically and vigorously worked hard to get the Black vote out...
I dunno. Maybe. But Hillary doesn't seem to have the charisma or oratorical skills that Mr. Obama has demonstrated; and there are no significantly awful candidates that seem likely to win the Republican nomination (although there are no stellar ones, either). And I think that over the last eight years, Mr. Obama has drawn as much of the Black vote out as seems likely. That group is unlikely to swell in numbers.
I could easily see a circumstance in which Hillary might decide to sit 2016 out.
And if she does...
Then who is the next most likely candidate?
Because it seems to be Joe Biden; and the next step down is Bill Maher. And that's going pretty far down the pole.
Anybody got any thoughts? If Hillary doesn't run, who might step up and try to win for the Democrats?
First, the Democrats are unlikely to win in 2016, regardless of who is at the helm. Since 1960 (and possibly earlier) we've had two terms of one party followed by two terms of the other. The singular exception was Jimmy Carter in 1980, who failed to secure a second term for the Democrats; and Reagan/Bush senior, who together secured three terms for the Republicans. Given the recent loss of the Senate to the Republican party, it seems easy to predict that this 56 year long cycle will continue.
Secondly, running - first as a party candidate, then as a presidential candidate - is expensive, and time and energy consumptive. Much of the money will come from donations, but some will come from her pocket; and all of the time and energy will come from her. She'll be giving up a year of her life to run for a position in which the tide of history is running against her.
She might well look at the writing on the wall, and decide to spend the next year doing something else. She's already experienced one major loss, at the hands of Mr. Obama in 2008. I doubt she wishes to experience another such loss.
Were the Republican party to nominate an obviously brain dead candidate - a lobotomized Sarah Palin, or some similarly awful candidate; AND Ms. Clinton was effective at getting the female vote out; AND Mr. Obama enthusiastically and vigorously worked hard to get the Black vote out...
I dunno. Maybe. But Hillary doesn't seem to have the charisma or oratorical skills that Mr. Obama has demonstrated; and there are no significantly awful candidates that seem likely to win the Republican nomination (although there are no stellar ones, either). And I think that over the last eight years, Mr. Obama has drawn as much of the Black vote out as seems likely. That group is unlikely to swell in numbers.
I could easily see a circumstance in which Hillary might decide to sit 2016 out.
And if she does...
Then who is the next most likely candidate?
Because it seems to be Joe Biden; and the next step down is Bill Maher. And that's going pretty far down the pole.
Anybody got any thoughts? If Hillary doesn't run, who might step up and try to win for the Democrats?
