Russia after Putin?

[KingOrfeo]

Vladimir Putin has created a system where the President and/or Prime Minister of Russia has vast and arbitrary power and authority, can even appoint all the provincial governors. The old Soviet leaders based their power on their idealistic Communist ideology, a religion in many ways. So far as I can tell, Putin has no ideology but commonplace Russian nationalism, and created the system not for the sake of concentrating power in the President/PM of Russia, but for the sake of concentrating power in Vladimir Putin. His regime is based largely on his forceful and charismatic personality; it is all about Putin the way the First French Empire was all about Napoleon. Well, Napoleon hoped to establish a dynasty, but I think the notion of hereditary succession won't fly in post-Soviet Russia, and not even Putin (who has two daughters) could get away with making himself Tsar. And no one is immortal. Tomorrow, Putin could have a fatal horseback-riding accident, or Siberian-tiger-riding accident (yeah, he's that macho!), or something.

What happens to Russia then?

 

[PoppingTom]

Vladimir Putin has created a system where the President and/or Prime Minister of Russia has vast and arbitrary power and authority, can even appoint all the provincial governors. The old Soviet leaders based their power on their idealistic Communist ideology, a religion in many ways. So far as I can tell, Putin has no ideology but commonplace Russian nationalism, and created the system not for the sake of concentrating power in the President/PM of Russia, but for the sake of concentrating power in Vladimir Putin. His regime is based largely on his forceful and charismatic personality; it is all about Putin the way the First French Empire was all about Napoleon. Well, Napoleon hoped to establish a dynasty, but I think the notion of hereditary succession won't fly in post-Soviet Russia, and not even Putin (who has two daughters) could get away with making himself Tsar. And no one is immortal. Tomorrow, Putin could have a fatal horseback-riding accident, or Siberian-tiger-riding accident (yeah, he's that macho!), or something.

What happens to Russia then?

Russia is, and always was, with a few breaks, a tsar system. There's not much difference between Putin and Yeltzin in that case. Don't think that Russian communism aka the Soviet system wasn't nationalism.

 

[1sickbastard]

Unlike the old czarist system, the soviet system had mechanisms in place for devolving power, at least to a point.
Stalin was unquestionably an autocrat, and much like the czars, had a ideology to support his rule.
Unlike the czars, however, the person who succeeded him (Khrushchev) had to have support within the Politburo, which allowed the ministers of important bureaucracies to gather their own political power (like the military or the interior ministry (KGB/GRU)). That devolution became more pronounced under Brezhnev, then Andropov, and by the time Gorbachev came to power, that power had devolved to the point that one man could no longer dominate both party and state apparatus, and such person was dependent on the support of those sitting on the Politburo, instead of the other way around. (Under Stalin, one needed his support to be on the Politburo).

Putin has been aggressively building, expanding and consolidating his power, but he has no where near the power of either the czars or that Stalin had. Nor does it appear that he has any protege who could easily or rapidly take office and consolidate the same sort of power Putin has now (because such a person would be a potential threat to Putin himself).
While the rule of law is still not so firmly established that Putin's successor will be likely to follow what laws are in place (unless they suit his/her purpose), I do expect Putin's personal power to devolve to his various supporters and office holders much the same way it did after Stalin's death.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Don't think that Russian communism aka the Soviet system wasn't nationalism.

IIRC, it largely was, but kinda conflicted on the point.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Nor does it appear that he has any protege who could easily or rapidly take office and consolidate the same sort of power Putin has now (because such a person would be a potential threat to Putin himself).

Yeah, that's always a problem with non-hereditary one-man rule. Putin's only "protégé" is his puppet-President Dmitri Medvedev, a comparative nonentity. He'll never fill Putin's tsar-shoes.

 

[1sickbastard]

Yeah, that's always a problem with non-hereditary one-man rule. Putin's only "protégé" is his puppet-President Dmitri Medvedev, a comparative nonentity. He'll never fill Putin's tsar-shoes.

In the top tier of Russian politics, it is often a major feat just to survive a change in regime.

 

[KingOrfeo]

In the top tier of Russian politics, it is often a major feat just to survive a change in regime.

Well, should I hope nowadays that just means "survive" politically.

 

[JackLuis]

Well, should I hope nowadays that just means "survive" politically.

I suspect that Putin's sudden death would be a major blow to the balance in Russian, Political and Economic affairs and given the rise of neo-Fascist reactionisim in Russia, I suspect that more that a few will fall by thee wayside as the gangsters rearrange the chairs at the great game. Who will be the dealer then?

 

[1sickbastard]

Well, should I hope nowadays that just means "survive" politically.

If I were a major player in the current Russian gov't, I wouldn't (literally) bet my life on it.

I suspect that Putin's sudden death would be a major blow to the balance in Russian, Political and Economic affairs and given the rise of neo-Fascist reactionisim in Russia, I suspect that more that a few will fall by thee wayside as the gangsters rearrange the chairs at the great game. Who will be the dealer then?

Agreed. Putin seems to be running on the Strong-man/Cult of Personality that seems endemic to the Russian political psyche, at least as the internal politics go.

Economically, I'm not so sure. One thing Putin has done very effectively is turn Russia into an exporter of raw materials, particularly energy. Someone with plans to revitalize the national industrial base with an eye toward A) producing finished consumer goods and, B) creating a robust middle class with the affluence to sustain such an industrial base would have a rough go of it, and probably from sheer necessity, become far more autocratic than Putin is now.

 

[KingOrfeo]

No one seems to know where Putin is.

 

[Beco]

Vladimir Putin has created a system where the President and/or Prime Minister of Russia has vast and arbitrary power and authority, can even appoint all the provincial governors. The old Soviet leaders based their power on their idealistic Communist ideology, a religion in many ways. So far as I can tell, Putin has no ideology but commonplace Russian nationalism, and created the system not for the sake of concentrating power in the President/PM of Russia, but for the sake of concentrating power in Vladimir Putin. His regime is based largely on his forceful and charismatic personality; it is all about Putin the way the First French Empire was all about Napoleon. Well, Napoleon hoped to establish a dynasty, but I think the notion of hereditary succession won't fly in post-Soviet Russia, and not even Putin (who has two daughters) could get away with making himself Tsar. And no one is immortal. Tomorrow, Putin could have a fatal horseback-riding accident, or Siberian-tiger-riding accident (yeah, he's that macho!), or something.

What happens to Russia then?

Not sure about all of the above, but his girlfriend, or pregnant girlfriend, is hot!

 

[sr71plt]

No one seems to know where Putin is.

Apparently he might be out riding Siberian tigers.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Putin biographer: He's not dead — but chaos is brewing in the Kremlin.