Ominous prediction indeed.

[PayDay]

I think this one got passed over out of board rage: This is kind of smart, which is why I am having a ahrd time understanding your posts, kbate.

#509: http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=62281859&postcount=509

Let's narrow this down a little bit. That classical school presupposes that the free flow of labor will be from where there is a surplus to where there is a shortage. There is no demonstrable shortage of labor that would be eased by the wholesale importation of unskilled, uneducated, unhealthy, non-English speaking immigrants. That school also presupposes that nation states will not take actions that are damaging to it's economy or it's citizens.

A significant percentage of these new arrivals are of the criminal class or children that by law are not allowed to be in the labor force to begin with. Both classes are a net drain on the economy and the citizens wallet.

Ishmael

You're (Ishmael) basically saying that the only labor group affected by immigration is minimum wage/unskilled, but that that group won't be affected because the majority of those currently coming in are underage/criminal?

I don't want to miss read this.

 

[Ishmael]

Ok... this part---^ confuses me, and appears to be a bold claim.

Just addressing that point for now. That is the BRIC's goal, replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. And without a doubt the dominant players in that game are China and India. Everyone else is just along for the ride. But that effort is not without precedent.

Take a look at the EU and the Euro that came out of it. The Euro was also created to be the worlds reserve currency, or at least an alternative. And what has occurred? France and Germany have been playing tug-of-war for financial dominance since day one. Right now, after France elected a flaming socialist to high office, Germany is sitting in the cat birds seat. And the other members? Who cares, Germany and France don't.

All of which points out another benefit the US enjoys for now, we don't have to rely on any other nation to set monetary policy.

And by saying "at each others throats" I don't necessarily mean armed conflict.

Ishmael

 

[PayDay]

Just addressing that point for now. That is the BRIC's goal, replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. And without a doubt the dominant players in that game are China and India. Everyone else is just along for the ride. But that effort is not without precedent.

Take a look at the EU and the Euro that came out of it. The Euro was also created to be the worlds reserve currency, or at least an alternative. And what has occurred? France and Germany have been playing tug-of-war for financial dominance since day one. Right now, after France elected a flaming socialist to high office, Germany is sitting in the cat birds seat. And the other members? Who cares, Germany and France don't.

All of which points out another benefit the US enjoys for now, we don't have to rely on any other nation to set monetary policy.

And by saying "at each others throats" I don't necessarily mean armed conflict.

Ishmael

So if they do it right, we're (USA) fucked? My god oboma, what have you done....

 

[Ishmael]

I think this one got passed over out of board rage: This is kind of smart, which is why I am having a ahrd time understanding your posts, kbate.

#509: http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=62281859&postcount=509


You're (Ishmael) basically saying that the only labor group affected by immigration is minimum wage/unskilled, but that that group won't be affected because the majority of those currently coming in are underage/criminal?

I don't want to miss read this.

Two different paragraphs, two different groups. One damages the labor market, particularly the unskilled/semi-skilled market. The second is just a financial drain on the taxpayer.

In reality both are a drain but the unskilled/semi-skilled working class at least has the benefit of paying some taxes that will help defray the welfare benefits that will be paid to the unskilled/semi-skilled out of work citizen.

Or to put it another way, excess labor, no matter what the skill level, does nothing to create jobs or the value of the labor that does those jobs.

Ishmael.

 

[PayDay]

To fill jobs: you need to evolve the labour force, or you need to evolve wages to entice worker mobility. Historically changing the labour force is the preferred method for a lot of reasons. (from slavery to illegals this has always been preferred to higher wages)

Or you need to create a market in which the existing labor becomes valuable. There is more than 'evolve wages' involved in this. For instance, the remod and home maintenance industries move with the economy, so if the country is in dire economic states, so are those industries.

Those industries are the bread and butter of the middle class. More labor won't fix this, but those industries in a good economy will accept all the workers you can throw at them, skilled or unskilled.

For the last few years, we have had farm labour shortages and despite raising pay 40%, we still cannot get enough workers so we bring in immigrants (legally). We do not have the choice of raising our product price because our product prices are set by commodities traders in New York and we cannot refuse to sell once the product is produced. The only way farmers can affect prices is to refuse to produce and in the global economy, another nation will simply step up and take profits.

I grew up in a farm community. There is no such thing as 'farm wages' unless you are an equipment operator. Everything is paid by 'the bushel' or harvest. There is also no shortage of farm workers, or a labor shortage, it's simply that no one wants to make ten cents a bushel for picking blueberries to barely make minimum wage. On a good farm, you get a percentage of the harvest, but they don't do that around here unless you are family. Those are facts, I have seen them and been involved in them.

A lot of this could be due to importing produce, which makes for a smaller profit on the domestic farm. They are almost encouraged to import workers.

That a significant percentage are "Criminal Class" is an unproven statement. You just made that up - the same as you made up the unhealthy, etc.... to be scary. "oh snap" you consider the immigration itself enough to make them criminal class - that makes it close to 100%.

At least your "deport them all" plan will create jobs among those who are contracted to move them out. They'll be government jobs which strangely aren't a net drain on the economy when you like what they do, but jobs they'll be.

If someone is here as an illegal immigrant, then they have broken the law. Criminals. ...but I see what you are saying, exactly what is the number of rapists, robbers, arsonists, etc?

How exactly do we find out? Legalize them all and then wait for them to commit a crime?

 

[PayDay]

Two different paragraphs, two different groups. One damages the labor market, particularly the unskilled/semi-skilled market. The second is just a financial drain on the taxpayer.

In reality both are a drain but the unskilled/semi-skilled working class at least has the benefit of paying some taxes that will help defray the welfare benefits that will be paid to the unskilled/semi-skilled out of work citizen.

Or to put it another way, excess labor, no matter what the skill level, does nothing to create jobs or the value of the labor that does those jobs.

Ishmael.

Gotcha. I agree. In a healthy economy, this wouldn't even be an issue. I am really liking the word Austerity.

 

[Que]

Ever noticed that on the left if we are talking increases in social services or a glut of labor there are 11 million migrant "workers" (whether they work or merely apply for social services). When it's time to pack them on buses and send them on home it can't be done with 20 million of them here.

 

[Ishmael]

So if they do it right, we're (USA) fucked? My god oboma, what have you done....

Nah, not yet anyway. Remember the oil?

If someone were to come up with an economically viable alternative to hydrocarbon products all bets are off. The operative phrase is 'portable energy', no matter what form that may take. Oil just happens to be today's 'go to' embodiment.

Ishmael

 

[Que]

If someone is here as an illegal immigrant, then they have broken the law. Criminals. ...but I see what you are saying, exactly what is the number of rapists, robbers, arsonists, etc?

How exactly do we find out? Legalize them all and then wait for them to commit a crime?

You have to know something about coyotes to have an idea about that. Coyotes do not work for free. Their rates are lower now that the border patrol is strictly catch and release and being caught smuggling is a catch and release offense as well. It runs around $2500 to get from Mexico into the US. A LOT more than that to get into Mexico in the first place, since they are serious about their southern border. It looks like that has become open though now that those that get here get to stay here.

Picture abject poverty in Mexico. You have no education and no skills and no job. Where do you think they get the $2500 to come here? They do not charge it to their Bankamericard Visa. (at least not till after they get here and Bank of America gives 'em one...just because.

They either earn the freight charges with criminal activity there or the expectation of criminal activity here. Often they pay part of their fee by carrying a bundle of something in.

Some families of people NOT connected to criminal organizations pay the coyotes to bring a member across. They scrimp and save and work and send one. They end up paying twice when the coyote then kidnaps them and holds them for ransom in a Phoenix stash house.

These are generally not people that were on the fence about whether to study further at the seminary to become a catholic priest or come north to pick letchuga.

 

[PayDay]

Ever noticed that on the left if we are talking increases in social services or a glut of labor there are 11 million migrant "workers" (whether they work or merely apply for social services). When it's time to pack them on buses and send them on home it can't be done with 20 million of them here.

Take out the left and right. This thread is so much more awesome when it's not partisan.

 

[Que]

Take out the left and right. This thread is so much more awesome when it's not partisan.

Everything here is partisan. Everyone knows it is 20 million (and rising) but only on the left do they like to pretend it is a nice tidy 11 million. A number, no doubt carefully crafted in some focus group.

 

[PayDay]

Nah, not yet anyway. Remember the oil?

If someone were to come up with an economically viable alternative to hydrocarbon products all bets are off. The operative phrase is 'portable energy', no matter what form that may take. Oil just happens to be today's 'go to' embodiment.

Ishmael

Oh yeah? 'Climate Change' is a funny phrase:
Coincidental that this is happening?:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...768504-69e6-11e4-9fb4-a622dae742a2_story.html

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Obama struck a deal Wednesday to limit greenhouse gases, with China committing for the first time to cap carbon emissions and Obama unveiling a plan for deeper U.S. emissions reductions through 2025.

China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, pledged in the far-reaching agreement to cap its rapidly growing carbon emissions by 2030, or earlier if possible. It also set a daunting goal of increasing the share of non-fossil fuels to 20*percent of the country’s energy mix by 2030.

Obama announced a target to cut U.S. emissions 26 to 28*percent below 2005 levels by 2025, the first time the president has set a goal beyond the existing 17*percent target by 2020.

The announcement capped a trip that also resulted in*steps to cut tariffs*on technology products, adopt warning measures to reduce the chance of accidental military conflict, and ease visas.

The two countries together account for about 45*percent of the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions, and their commitments are likely to energize talks underway to set new post-2020 targets when climate negotiators meet in Paris in December of next year. “The announcement provides a real shot of momentum for international climate negotiations,” one administration official said before the Obama-Xi announcement.

+this one: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/climate-rules-obama-112792.html

With realistic economics in the toilet and oil as thenonly real standard of value...

Why now if it's easily debatable science? Just sayin...

 

[PayDay]

Everything here is partisan. Everyone knows it is 20 million (and rising) but only on the left do they like to pretend it is a nice tidy 11 million. A number, no doubt carefully crafted in some focus group.

...I use the 11 million number.

1000 illegals is too many.

 

[PayDay]

How would a currency have real value?

Seriously? Ever heard of a Silver Certificate?

 

[PayDay]

Freedom does mean minimum law.

You are mistaking freedom and liberty again. Freedom, by definition, does not include any law, at all.

You have the freedom to jump off of a bridge but liberty created laws to keep you off of that bridge, infringing on your freedom to jump.

I thought you understood that.

 

[Que]

Oh yeah? 'Climate Change' is a funny phrase:
Coincidental that this is happening?:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...768504-69e6-11e4-9fb4-a622dae742a2_story.html


+this one: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/climate-rules-obama-112792.html

With realistic economics in the toilet and oil as thenonly real standard of value...

Why now if it's easily debatable science? Just sayin...

Because the Chinese know it will fuck up our ability to produce by increasing our energy costs. They will smile and bow and be mystified why they didn't hit the targets 10 years from now.

Now they MIGHT actually have a viable plan. It would involve nukes. They could do it because they do not have environmental lawyers telling them what is and what is not safe.

 

[PayDay]

in late 2008, during the depths of the Bush Recession.

Never happened. There was no Bush recession, there was a 'we're in a recession or we're going to be' brainwashing thing going on.

In point of fact, our economy slumped and recessed INSTANTLY with the last minimum wage hike Bush signed.

Look it up. We were finacially booming and the home repair market was at it's best.

 

[PayDay]

Because the Chinese know it will fuck up our ability to produce by increasing our energy costs. They will smile and bow and be mystified why they didn't hit the targets 10 years from now.

Now they MIGHT actually have a viable plan. It would involve nukes. They could do it because they do not have environmental lawyers telling them what is and what is not safe.

It's getting harder to believe that government's job is not to send America down the river and give our assets away.

It's looking way too communist in this country for my tastes. I want my sense of American Awesomeness back.

 

[PayDay]

You think our government creates inflation intentionally? That it's not a "natural" force of the universe?

Yes. I absolutely do. It didn't exist until the early 1900s.

 

[PayDay]

Paper currency alone has no inherent fixed value. If it is redeemable in something of value it can represent that value. Our currency is non-redeemable and represents a politically manipulated varying amount of value. See here for a lesson in real inflation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

Das is good article.

 

[Que]

Never happened. There was no Bush recession, there was a 'we're in a recession or we're going to be' brainwashing thing going on.

In point of fact, our economy slumped and recessed INSTANTLY with the last minimum wage hike Bush signed.

Look it up. We were finacially booming and the home repair market was at it's best.

No there was a recession. It happened as a direct result of loose money policies on grade B paper. It caused a dutch-tulip style run on housing, people over-extended, and it burst as all monetary policy bubbles have to, eventually.

When all those realtors, builders, appraisers, loan officers, home inspecters, carpenters plumbers, electricians, roofers, drywallers, tile setters, carpet layers, cabinet hangers, home improvement stores, carpet companies, copper companies, gypsum companies, lumber companies all had no customers, the ride was over.

I had realtor show up with a buyer in a geo metro. The realtor was wearing flip-flops and cargo shorts...had no idea what a "comparable" property and assumed I could value a house at $151,000 when the last three sales of the exact same model were under 120,000. It was a house built when a manufactured home company went out of business. They took the kitchen/bath halves that were completed, put them on a slab and built a lean-to off the back. Someone did a 1/2 dozen of them in a wildcat subdivision. The 120,000 figure was up from 90,000 a year before.

I did a house twice in a subdivison that was supposed to be owner occupied. It never was, neither were any of the rest save three in a neighborhood of 120 houses or so.

We definitely had a recession. I got out a couple of years before the hypothetical top of the market.

 

[PayDay]

No there was a recession. It happened as a direct result of loose money policies on grade B paper. It caused a dutch-tulip style run on housing, people over-extended, and it burst as all monetary policy bubbles have to, eventually.

When all those realtors, builders, appraisers, loan officers, home inspecters, carpenters plumbers, electricians, roofers, drywallers, tile setters, carpet layers, cabinet hangers, home improvement stores, carpet companies, copper companies, gypsum companies, lumber companies all had no customers, the ride was over.

I had realtor show up with a buyer in a geo metro. The realtor was wearing flip-flops and cargo shorts...had no idea what a "comparable" property and assumed I could value a house at $151,000 when the last three sales of the exact same model were under 120,000. It was a house built when a manufactured home company went out of business. They took the kitchen/bath halves that were completed, put them on a slab and built a lean-to off the back. Someone did a 1/2 dozen of them in a wildcat subdivision. The 120,000 figure was up from 90,000 a year before.

I did a house twice in a subdivison that was supposed to be owner occupied. It never was, neither were any of the rest save three in a neighborhood of 120 houses or so.

We definitely had a recession. I got out a couple of years before the hypothetical top of the market.

Woah. Woah. That's apples and oranges man. You are confusing big ticket sales with standard economic practices. The 'real estate' market is not home repair industry.

Not to mention predatory lending was at it's peak in the real estate market.

Real estate and cars are like tech stocks, always in perpetual motion independent of the economy.

Here's a clue to help you out: New cars and new houses have huuuuuuuuuuuge profit margins.
Why else would 'economists' use them as the 'only' sign of a healthy market? New car sales are suffering for a totally unrelated reason: New cars last longer and have better warranties and manynof the new cars produced are junk. Look at the types of best selling cars.

#578 : http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=62295579&postcount=578

I agree with virtually everyone that our immigration laws have to be revamped.

Why?

IMO: If we properly follow the existing law system everything works out fine. Plenty of legal immigrants in this country, plenty of new citizens too.

The system is flawless except for one thing: Executive orders that prevent individuals from doing their job.

...and by that I mean: Intentionally fucking the system up.

 

[PayDay]

query, man, #569 : http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=62294675&postcount=569

A+

 

[Que]

Predatory lending is a red herring. Yes, there were plenty of 3-2-1 buy down loans (starts at 4 instead of 7, then goes to 5 then 6 then 7. The loans defaulted before it ever got that far.

The problem was "liar loans" from fannie mae. First there were "low doc" loans...ostensibly to make it simpler...the real reason is..."ask me no questions, an I will tell you no lies" people could not perjure themselves if you never asked for income. People qualified at the lower rate.

What really happened though was exactly like the dutch tulip market. I knew the end was coming three years before the top. I was in a grocery store bank branch because it was easier thatn arguing with my wife that real bankers work at actual bank branches. While I waited a young couple that peobably could barely afford their own home were taking out a second mortgage...(no questions asked up to 100% or appraised (inflated) value ) they were going to take the money and "invest" in real estate.

The banker chick did not care what they used the money for...they can go to vegas if desired. Just making conversation she asked, "Oh rental property or are you going to do a rehab?"

No. Their entire plan was to buy a house, and pocket the commission when they immediately re-sell it because they will "save" 7% by selling it themselves. They "know" that each successive sale goes up by that much ,,,,well because.

This happened a lot.

I had a friend who was a very successful tile setter. He bought a 1 million dollar property (versus his $550K home) his plan was to tile, paint and resell for 1.5 million. He lost it all.

As far as the repair market, look at all of those contractors and skilled tradesmen out of work when the new built market fell out. Also when values dropped your home might not appraise for what is owed and there is no room for a home improvement loan.

 

[Libsam]

Ok: Someone explain bit coin, it's a subject I know nothing about. I thought it collapsed?

I certainly can't explain it but here are some links:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Main_Page

Then check out mining:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining

I bet kbate could explain it, she's good at algorithms and stuff.