Ominous prediction indeed.

[Ishmael]

Interesting little article here;

50% of today's occupations gone by 2025.

Both the 50% and the 2025 numbers are probably wrong. But the overall prediction is quite true and will have a profound effect on;

Immigration. Huge numbers of unskilled labor will end up being welfare dependents. We have enough native unskilled labor, importing more is folly.

Education There are a whole slew of educational specialties, both degreed and technical that will end up being absolutely worthless. Bad choices will lead to crushing debt with little chance of that debt being retired.

And as always these changes are gong to have unintended consequences on occupations not even mentioned.

Ishmael

 

[ms_ann_thrope]

Unless the grid crashes.

 

[Hard_Rom]

Immigration. Huge numbers of unskilled labor will end up being welfare dependents. We have enough native unskilled labor, importing more is folly.

I disagree.

You need growth, population growth, in a capitalist system. In the heyday of American expansion it had a birth rate that sub-Saharan Africa can not touch. Not any more. The expense of baby boomer retirements and aging will cripple the next generation or two.

Even an immigrant janitor, buys food, clothes, uses transportation, needs housing, schools. All this stimulates growth.

Illegals and some refugees may be unskilled but the usual immigrant must meet standards. A freer policy on middle class skilled immigrants, of whatever colour or ethnicity, would make it easier, or more palatable, to crack down on illegals.

The doors should be virtually thrown open to middle class skilled labour.

There is a difference between an illegal immigrant, a refugee and legal immigrants.

If there was another European war that created huge amounts of white refugees, our governments, Can. and US., would be trampling on one another to take them in. It would be like winning a lottery. At millions of others expense.

 

[Que]

Immigration. Huge numbers of unskilled labor will end up being welfare dependents. We have enough native unskilled labor, importing more is folly.

I disagree.

You need growth, population growth, in a capitalist system. In the heyday of American expansion it had a birth rate that sub-Saharan Africa can not touch. Not any more. The expense of baby boomer retirements and aging will cripple the next generation or two.

Even an immigrant janitor, buys food, clothes, uses transportation, needs housing, schools. All this stimulates growth.

Illegals and some refugees may be unskilled but the usual immigrant must meet standards. A freer policy on middle class skilled immigrants, of whatever colour or ethnicity, would make it easier, or more palatable, to crack down on illegals.

The doors should be virtually thrown open to middle class skilled labour.

There is a difference between an illegal immigrant, a refugee and legal immigrants.

If there was another European war that created huge amounts of white refugees, our governments, Can. and US., would be trampling on one another to take them in. It would be like winning a lottery. At millions of others expense.

We used to braid buggy whips by hand. Our "hey day" of expansion is over. The exploitation of immigrant labor that fueled our early growth is impossible due to government regulation of the labor market and the minimum wage. America will NEVER be competitive at unskilled labor production.

The point is we already grow our own janitor class to use your example. We do not need to import janitors, groundskeepers, maids or cooks. We need to quit making it more profitable to stay home than be janitors, groundskeepers, maids or cooks.

 

[eyer]

Interesting little article here;

50% of today's occupations gone by 2025.

Both the 50% and the 2025 numbers are probably wrong. But the overall prediction is quite true and will have a profound effect on;

Immigration. Huge numbers of unskilled labor will end up being welfare dependents. We have enough native unskilled labor, importing more is folly.

Education There are a whole slew of educational specialties, both degreed and technical that will end up being absolutely worthless. Bad choices will lead to crushing debt with little chance of that debt being retired.

And as always these changes are gong to have unintended consequences on occupations not even mentioned.

Ishmael

And it's exactly why wealth redistribution will be all the rage for these next 10 years...

...rage, as in literally.

 

[Hard_Rom]

I think you are mistaking illegal immigrants with legal immigrants.

 

[Sean]

We used to braid buggy whips by hand. Our "hey day" of expansion is over. The exploitation of immigrant labor that fueled our early growth is impossible due to government regulation of the labor market and the minimum wage. America will NEVER be competitive at unskilled labor production.

The point is we already grow our own janitor class to use your example. We do not need to import janitors, groundskeepers, maids or cooks. We need to quit making it more profitable to stay home than be janitors, groundskeepers, maids or cooks.

Reading is a bit hard for you, isn't it?

 

[Que]

Reading is a bit hard for you, isn't it?

Writing something meaningful is a bit hard for you, isn't it?

 

[Que]

I think you are mistaking illegal immigrants with legal immigrants.

No I am not. You are parroting the fallacy that an economy grows beginning with the needs consumed by the janitor.

If...for the sake of discussion... we curbed all illegal immigration (who statistically have no earning potential) and carefully screened all legal immigrants for marketable skills, we do not have now and will not have in the future jobs for marketable skills for the people that already live here capable of developing marketable skills.

It is economically false that an economy grows from consumer spending. An economy grows by digging something out of the ground, farming, logging, oil exploration or adding value to any of those products through marketing for new uses or using them in manufacturing or construction. The only other growth area is intellectual property that you can sell to others that do any of the above.

 

[phrodeau]

We'll have lots of pollinator jobs after the bees are all dead.

 

[ms_ann_thrope]

There's always prostitution.

 

[unregistered]

 

[Disgustipated]

The idea that America's economic future rests in the importation of millions of Central Americans without technical skills and illiterate in their own languages is bullshit. What Obama is doing is trying to import a reserve constituency to bail out the Democrats who's lies and true intentions have been revealed and finally understood my voting Americans.

You admit to paying mexican labor below minimum wage to mow your lawn. Stfu.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Interesting little article here;

50% of today's occupations gone by 2025.

Both the 50% and the 2025 numbers are probably wrong. But the overall prediction is quite true and will have a profound effect on;

Immigration. Huge numbers of unskilled labor will end up being welfare dependents. We have enough native unskilled labor, importing more is folly.

Education There are a whole slew of educational specialties, both degreed and technical that will end up being absolutely worthless. Bad choices will lead to crushing debt with little chance of that debt being retired.

And as always these changes are gong to have unintended consequences on occupations not even mentioned.

Ishmael

Here's the thing. Obviously this is true, while the dates and percentages may or may not be accurate the fact that jobs are vanishing is undeniable. I suspect those numbers are actually a little low and some of the jobs that people think are safe aren't. I don't remember who it was, I think it may have been you but I'll refrain from accusing you of educating me about anything since you take great offense flattery, that any job that can be broken down into parts can be automated.

Right now a lot of people seem to think that plumbers and automotive repair will remain and they may take a little longer to go away than other jobs but honestly I don't see any reason why those jobs would last indefinitely, not in a world where it's clear we aren't but so far away from if not full on robot surgery certainly heavily robot assisted surgery. Robots will have steadier hands than any human and honestly a doctor who doesn't have to be in the room but can instead due surgery in Africa from his office in New York is going to eliminate a certain amount of jobs just because he'll be able to do "more" work in more locations instead of needing a doctor willing to live in "x" location.

However this is an insanely stupid problem to have. (One Keynes solved long ago) The lack of jobs isn't being coupled with a lack of actual stuff. Physical wealth is still up. Our problem is that we're going to have too much spare time and have no fucking clue how to distribute wealth (the actual wealth. Not the score keeping bits we call money) However it's simple.

Decrease the work week for starters. A decrease in what is considered full time from 40 hours to 30 hours would likely go a LONG way in "creating" jobs. We did this during the Great Depression, well that time we made an official work week and prior to that there was no rule. We eliminated most child labor as well. So do that.

Get more people educated in more things. More of those so called "worthless" degrees. Despite what Republicans like to preach there is really no such thing as bad knowledge. Having people who specialize in teaching people calligraphy or ancient Roman battle manuevers is ultimately of no more or less use than many of things we consider mandatory today. I know some people find daily use for math beyond the basics but I've honestly never needed to measure a flag pole by it's shadow. The only use I've ever had for Shakespeare is having some universal frames of reference to speak with people about. So ultimately a working knowledge of Shakespeare today is of LESS use than a working knowledge of 24, James Bond or Batman. I'm in no way saying not to teach those things, I'm saying I don't remember the last time someone referenced Shakespeare beyond huge sweeping things like Romeo and Juliet.

Ultimately if we can't figure out away to pay off debts, which is ultimately score keeping is we deserve whatever the fuck happens to us.

 

[unregistered]

 

[Disgustipated]

That's a lie. I pay him 40 bucks to do an hour's work.

Insurance? 1099? Claim?

 

[phrodeau]

Insurance? 1099? Claim?

Hey, that's all crippling, job-killing government over-regulation that needs to be drowned in a bathtub. And they need to take away the guns of the T-men trying to enforce them, too.

 

[PayDay]

Thank the Laurel(s), a thread that's not one time use only:

Here's another one that gets looked over, and no one wants to talk about it.

http://www.sott.net/article/287491-...us-financial-market-signals-not-seen-in-years
Fear on Wall Street? Nine ominous financial market signals not seen in years

Combo move OP article to this one:

Is the stock market about to crash? Hopefully not, and there definitely have been quite a few "false alarms" over the past few years. But without a doubt we have been living through*one of the greatest financial bubbles*in U.S. history, and the markets are absolutely primed for a full-blown crash. That doesn't mean that one will happen now, but we are starting to see some ominous things happen in the financial world that we have not seen happen in a very long time.*

 

[PayDay]

Here's a bunch of other stuff I've been using in various places that go along well with this thread:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-30/all-these-items-point-collapse-markets

In terms of valuing stocks as a whole, based simply on CAPE (cyclical adjusted price to earnings) the market is significantly overvalued with a reading of nearly 26*

http://dailysignal.com/2014/04/14/c...-dollars-real-deficit-number-actually-higher/

What’s curious about this CBO report is that it makes no mention of Fannie and Freddie’s impact on the budget, in contrast with previous reporting. In its Monthly Budget Review for March 2014, for example, CBO was very forthright about the distorting effect that the current GSE reporting has on the budget.*

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-29/fed-pauses-printing-total-world-debt-tops-100-trillion

As Fed Pauses Printing, Total World Debt Tops $100 Trillion

The comments on this one are very informative---^----v

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/08/modern-monetary-theory-is-wrong-debt.html?m=1

In truth an argument can be made that austerity measures do not necessarily increase or decrease economic growth.* All attempts by central governments to prop up asset prices, bail out insolvent banks, or "stimulate" the economy and deficit spending makes stable growth less likely.* Often the typical goal of austerity is to reduce the annual budget deficit without sacrificing growth.* Over time, this should reduce the overall debt burden, as the economy grows.* Blaming austerity for theblow-back*from governments living beyond its means is more then unfair, we should at all times conduct business and run our government* with responsible reigns on spending. If a government spends and runs its business in an austere way the issue of when to start cutting or tightening should never surface.

Woogey boogey woogey boogey:
http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/18/halp_cat.jpg

 

[Boxlicker101]

Insurance? 1099? Claim?

The guy mowing the lawn is an independent contractor, not an employee. The amount paid is probably not enough to require a 1099.

 

[PayDay]

This one keeps bothering me: Could be scary if the potential undocumented pool is added, plus the mainstream isn't talking about it.

Genuine Unemployment %? Who knows?
http://www.epi.org/publication/missing-workers/

In today’s labor market, the unemployment rate drastically understates the weakness of job opportunities. This is due to the existence of a large pool of*“missing workers”—potential workers who, because of weak job opportunities, are neither employed nor actively seeking a job. In other words, these are people who would*be either working or looking for work if job opportunities were significantly stronger. Because jobless workers are only counted as unemployed if they are actively seeking work, these “missing workers” are not reflected in the unemployment rate.

..and the % doesn't matter, even asmall amount can cause a problem in city/dense populations:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/unemployment-rate-get-real.asp

As the U.S.*Bureau of Labor Statistics*(BLS) notes, when workers are unemployed, their families lose wages, while the nation as a whole loses its contribution to the economy in terms of the goods or services that could have been produced. Unemployed workers also lose their purchasing power, which can lead to unemployment for other workers, creating a cascading effect that ripples through the economy.

To better understand the nature of unemployment, policymakers need information on many aspects of it, including the number of unemployed people, the period of time for which they have been unemployed, their skill levels, the trend in unemployment, regional disparities in unemployment and so on. Once these statistics have been obtained and interpreted, policymakers can use them to make better-informed decisions about steering the economy and countering unemployment.

All Doom and Gloom, right?
http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/2/electrocute_DJTK.gif

 

[PayDay]

Here's the thing.

uh-oh....

Post some reading material.

 

[PayDay]

Proof the world is coming to an end?
May this author burn in hell if $.01 is made:

https://boxofficefrontier.wordpress.com/early-box-office-forecast/2015-box-office-forecast/

2015 Box Office Forecast
February 13th 2015
50 Shades of Grey- $69 million- $170 million end gross

 

[Sean Renaud]

Dear God payday why do you keep pretending like the U6 isn't a thing we are all aware of?

 

[PayDay]

No one said it had to be all serious? :

and: